Collaborating scientist(s):
Dr. Mark D. Powell (NOAA/AOML/HRD)
Ms. Shirley T. Murillo (NOAA/AOML/HRD)
Ms. Summer C. Spisak (NOAA/AOML/HRD)
Mr. Russell St.Fleur (MAST Academy)
The small number of cases limits our analysis to simple averages. This is the first time that such a data set has been prepared and that forecasts of tropical cyclone intensity in terms of wind speed radii have been verified. Details on the method of verification will be provided by Houston et al. (1997), along with the final statistics of the study, including the 17.5 and 25.7 radii verification. In addition to the wind speed radii, NHC also provides radii of 3.65 m (12 ft) waves in the forecast/advisory product. Most of the data used in this study have hourly wave height measurements, which may be used to verify the radii of 3.65 m waves. This extends the study by Powell and Houston presented at the 1992 NOAA Hurricane Conference in Miami FL. This latest study examines the accuracy of wind radii forecasts in addition to verifying the wind radii valid for the time of the advisory.
Results will be presented at the Special Symposium on Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change at the American Meteorological Society (AMS) National Conference during 11-16 January 1998 in Phoenix, AZ and at the 52nd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference during 27-30 January 1998 in Clearwater, FL.
Office of the Federal Coordinator of Meteorology (OFCM), 1997: National Hurricane Operations Plan. FCM-12-1997. OFCM, Silver Spring MD, 134 pp.
Houston, S. H., M. B. Lawrence, S. C. Spisak, S. T. Murillo, 1997: A verification of National Hurricane Center forecasts of surface wind speed radii. Preprints: Special Session on Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change, A.M.S., 11-16 Jan. 1998, Phoenix, AZ.
Murillo, S. T., S. H. Houston, and M. D. Powell, 1997: Composites of surface marine observations for hurricanes during 1975-1996. Proc.: 22nd Conf. on Hur. and Trop. Met., 19-23 May 1997, Ft. Collins, CO, 78-79.
Powell, M.D., S. H. Houston, and T. A. Reinhold, 1996: Hurricane Andrew's landfall in South Florida: Part I: Standardizing measurements for documentation of surface wind fields. Weather and Forecasting, 11, 304-328.