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1996 Hurricane Research Division Projects

The majority of the Hurricane Research Division projects actively address the "Advance Short-term Warning and Forecast Services" element of the NOAA 1995-2005 Strategic Plan. However, our scientists are also involved in important research relating to the "Coastal Ecosystems Health", "Implement Seasonal to Interannual Climate Forecasts", and "Predict and Assess Decadal to Centennial Change" elements.

Tropical Cyclone Research

Motion

ENVIRONMENTAL FORCING OF HURRICANE MOTION AND INTENSIFICATION

Understanding of synoptic-scale environmental forcing of hurricanes.

POTENTIAL VORTICITY INFLUENCES ON HURRICANE GLORIA'S MOTION

To describe and understand how asymmetric interactions between a hurricane and its environment determine the hurricane's motion.

THE HRD SYNOPTIC FLOW FIELD EXPERIMENT: THE IMPACT OF DROPWINDSONDES ON OPERATIONAL HURRICANE TRACK FORECAST MODELS

To evaluate the impact of special environmental observations on the objective hurricane track forecast guidance available to the OAR.

Internal Dynamics

HURRICANE EYE THERMODYNAMICS

Physical understanding of the eye's role in hurricane intensification.

OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS OF THE HURRICANE AND ITS ENVIRONMENT

Diagnosis of the structure of the tropical cyclone core and environment; investigation of factors influencing tropical cyclone motion and intensification.

AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS OF HURRICANES

To understand the dynamics of tropical cyclone intensity change and motion.

AIRBORNE DOPPLER OBSERVATIONS OF HURRICANE STRUCTURE AND EVOLUTION

Describe the various inner core kinematic and reflectivity structures, and their relationships to environmental factors, such as wind shear and sea-surface temperature

THE ROLE OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING ON THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF HURRICANE EMILY (1987)

Use data collected during NOAA P-3 research flights to examine the role that an upper-level trough may have played in the rapid intensification of Hurricane Emily (1987).

KINEMATIC VELOCITY STRUCTURE OF HURRICANE GILBERT (1988)

Analyze airborne Doppler radar data collected in Hurricane Gilbert on 14 September 1988, to estimate the axisymmetric components of the three-dimensional windfield of this Category 5 hurricane.

Physical Processes

EVALUATION OF AN EMPIRICAL INLAND WIND DECAY MODEL

To evaluate overland wind forecasts from an empirical inland wind decay model (IWDM) for the 1995 Hurricane season.

REAL-TIME HURRICANE WIND FIELD ANALYSIS AND DAMAGE MITIGATION

To develop a real-time hurricane surface wind analysis system for forecast, damage assessment and recovery planning support.

COMPARISON STUDY OF HRD AND SLOSH MODEL SURFACE WINDS IN RECENT HURRICANES

To compare the Hurricane Research Division's (HRD) surface wind fields in recent hurricanes with the input fields for the Sea, Lake, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model and develop methods for incorporating the HRD winds into the SLOSH model.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WINDFIELDS AT LANDFALL FROM AIRBORNE AND LAND BASED DOPPLER RADAR DATA

Analyze the three-dimensional wind structure of landfalling tropical cyclones by combining airborne Doppler radar data collected by NOAA research aircraft with Doppler data archived by National Weather Service WSR-88D coastal radars.

DROP DISTORTIONS NEAR LARGE AIRCRAFT AS OBSERVED BY 2-D PARTICLE PROBE IMAGES

To determine the cause and extent of the distortion of raindrops around the WP-3D 2-D probe mounts, and to devise means of minimizing and/or compensating for it.

CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND TROPICAL CYCLONES

To identify the location and characteristics of cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning with respect to a hurricane's center, to explain why certain regions of the hurricane are more electrically-active than others, and to determine the universality of past results.

Numerical Techniques

MODELING THE HURRICANE DYNAMICS WITH EXPLICIT MOIST CONVECTION

Comprehensive understanding of hurricane dynamics with a numerical model that explicitly includes the cloud-scale moist convection interacting with the hurricane environment..

THREE-DIMENSIONAL VARIATIONAL ANALYSIS OF AIRBORNE DOPPLER OBSERVATIONS

To improve dual- and multiple-Doppler analyses by incorporating the Doppler projection equations, the three-dimensional continuity equation, and filtering within a variational scheme.

ENSEMBLE FORECASTING AND PREDICTION OF MODEL PERFORMANCE

Evaluation of methods to improve operational forecasts of tropical cyclone motion.

AIRBORNE HURRICANE ANALYSIS SYSTEMS

To analyze the relatively large amounts of data collected on board the P-3 aircraft and to transmit key information to forecasters on the ground.

Climate Variations

ATLANTIC SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND HURRICANE FORMATION

To investigate the physical mechanisms responsible for the observed relationship between interannual fluctuations in Atlantic sea surface temperatures and tropical cyclone activity for the North Atlantic basin.

EASTERLY WAVE VARIABILITY, SAHEL DROUGHT AND ATLANTIC HURRICANES

To investigate the physical mechanisms responsible for the observed relationship between interannual fluctuations in Atlantic sea surface temperatures and tropical cyclone activity for the North Atlantic basin.

SEASONAL FORECASTING OF TROPICAL CYCLONES, TROPICAL RAINFALL AND EL NINO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION

To investigate empirical seasonal forecasting methodologies and to issue real-time seasonal predictions for various tropical meteorology/oceanography phenomena, including Atlantic basin hurricanes, African rainfall and the El Nino/Southern Oscillatio n phenomena.

Other Research Programs and HRD Projects

Florida Bay

EPISODIC METEOROLOGICAL EVENTS AFFECTING FLORIDA BAY

The primary objective of this research project is to reconstruct episodic/catastrophic meteorological events and local weather regimes which critically affect the South Florida ecosystem.

Olympic Games

SUPPORT FOR THE SAILING EVENTS OF THE 1996 SUMMER OLYMPIC GAMES

To serve as scientific operations officer for the Marine Olympic Weather Support Forecast Center.

Education

HURRICANES, TYPHOONS AND TROPICAL CYCLONES FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS (FAQ)

To provide informative answers to public/media frequently asked questions on hurricanes via the World Wide Web.

TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC AWARENESS PROGRAMMES: PREPARING FOR THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

This effort supports the World Meteorological Organization's Tropical Cyclone Programme (TCP). The primary goal of this work is to develop a resource guide, for disaster preparedness officials and educators, for use in creating awareness in tropical -cyclone-prone nations.