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Synoptic Surveillance and Targeting Group

Team Leader: Sim Aberson (HRD)

Team Members:
Sharanya Majumdar (UM/RSMAS) |:| RSMAS project page
Chun-Chieh Wu (NTU)
Po-Hsuing Lin (NTU)
Carolyn Reynolds (NRL)
James Doyle (NRL)
Roberto Buizza (ECMWF)
Munehiko Yamaguchi (JMA)
Tetsuo Nakazawa (JMA)

Objective:

Improvement of tropical cyclone forecasts through improvement of initial conditions for numerical weather prediction models by:

  • targeting observations of opportunity such as dropwindsondes to those regions most likely to positively impact the specific forecast
  • improve the assimilation of targeted observations into numerical models.
  • provide improved environmental data sets for other research projects.

Methods:

This will be accomplished by, in all available basins:

  • conducting Observing Systems Experiments (OSEs)
  • obtaining over-sampled data sets to test targeting strategies
  • working to improve the assimilation of observations into current models
  • testing next-generation data assimilation techniques (eg. ETKF) on these data sets.
  • experimenting with various data resolutions in time and space
  • automating the current operational procedures

Accomplishments:

  • Transition of targeting and flight-track drawing to operations complete.
  • Assessment of DOTSTAR surveillance missions in the Taiwan Region complete.
  • Automated flight track drawing software transitioned to operations and in use in Japan.
  • Testing of singular vector and ensemble-based targeting strategies versus a uniform sampling strategy complete.
  • Assimilation of dropwindsonde humidity into NOAA operational models transitioned to operations.

References:

  • Aberson, S.D., and J.L. Franklin, 1999: Impact on hurricane track and intensity forecasts of GPS dropwindsonde observations from the first-season flights of the NOAA Gulfstream-IV jet aircraft. Bull. Amer. Met. Soc., 80, 421-428.

  • Aberson, S.D., 2002: Two years of operational hurricane synoptic surveillance. Wea. Forecasting, 17, 1101-1110.

  • Aberson, S.D., 2003: Targeted observations to improve operational tropical cyclone track forecast guidance. Mon. Wea. Rev., 131, 1613-1628.

  • Wu, C.-C., P.-H. Lin, S.D. Aberson, T.-C. Yeh, W.-P. Huang, K.-H. Chou, J.-S. Hong, G.-C. Lu, C.-T. Fong, K.-C. Hsu, I.-I. Lin, P.-L. Lin, and C.-H. Liu, 2005: Dropsonde observations for typhoon surveillance near the Taiwan region (DOTSTAR): An overview. Bull. Amer. Met. Soc., 86, 787-790.

  • Aberson, S.D., and B. Etherton, 2006: Targeting and data assimilation studies during Hurricane Humberto (2001). J. Atmos. Sci., 63, 175-186.

  • Majumdar, S. J., S.D. Aberson, C. H. Buizza, M.S. Peng, and C. A. Reynolds, 2006: A comparison of Adaptive Observing Guidance for Atlantic Tropical Cyclones, Mon. Wea. Rev., 134, 2354-2372.

  • Reynolds, C.A., M.S. Peng, S.J. Majumdar, S.D. Aberson, C.H. Bishop, and R. Buizza, 2007: Interpretation of adaptive observing guidance for Atlantic tropical cyclones. Mon. Wea. Rev., 134, 4006-4029.

  • Wu, C.-C., K.-H. Chou, P.-S. Lin, S.D. Aberson, M.S. Peng, and T. Nakazawa, 2007: The impact of dropsonde data on typhoon track forecasting in DOTSTAR. Wea. Forecast., 22, 1157-1176.

  • Aberson, S.D., 2009: Large forecast degradations due to synoptic surveillance during the 2004 and 2005 hurricane seasons. Mon. Wea. Rev., 136, 3138-3150.

  • Aberson, S. D., 2010: Ten years of hurricane synoptic surveillance (1997-2006). Mon. Wea. Rev., 138, 1536-1549.


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Last modified: 5/30/2011

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