Advanced Numerical Prediction and Modeling of the Tropical Cyclones
Principal Investigator: 
S.G.Gopalakrishnan (NOAA/HRD)
Team Members: 
Robert Rogers (NOAA/HRD)
Michael Montgomery (HRD/NPS) 
Frank Marks (NOAA/HRD)
Joe Griffin (NOAA/HRD)
Sim Aberson (NOAA/HRD) 
John Gamache (HRD)
Jason Dunion (NOAA/HRD)
Peter Black (NOAA/HRD)


Mission Goal:

Dramatic improvement in tropical cyclone track forecasts have occurred through 
advancements in high quality observations, high speed computers and improvements in 
dynamical models. Similar advancement now need to be made for tropical cyclone 
intensity, structure and rainfall prediction. The Weather Research Forecasting Model 
(WRF) is a general purpose, multi-institutional mesoscale modeling system. A version of 
the WRF model called the HWRF/WRF-NMM modeling system, developed at the 
National Center for Environmental Protection (NCEP) was recently adopted for hurricane 
forecasting (Gopalakrishnan et al, 2006) by the National Hurricane Center (NHC). At the 
Hurricane Research Division (HRD/AOML/OAR), in collaboration with the 
Developmental Test bed Center (DTC), Boulder, CO, Global Systems division 
(GSD/ESRL/OAR), Boulder, CO, The Air Resources Laboratory (ARL/OAR), 
Washington, D.C., the university community and Indian Institute of Technology, 
IIT.Delhi, India and India Meteorological Department, New Delhi, India we are 
developing and further advancing a research version of this modeling system. Our 
modeling effort includes advancing the WRF system for Ensemble Hurricane 
Forecasting,  advancing our understanding of Ensemble-vs-High Resolution Forecasting 
of Hurricanes, advancing WRF/WRF-NMM with better analysis techniques (e.g. Four 
Dimensional Data Assimilation) for improving forecasts and above all, advancing our 
understanding of the Hurricanes processes using high resolution numerical modeling 
approach.

Objectives: 

(1) Advancing our understanding of the Hurricanes processes using high resolution 
numerical modeling of the idealized and real cases (FY 2007 onwards.)

(2) Advancement of the WRF-NMM/HWRF system  with multiple physics options 
for ensemble modeling. Example: existing Kain Fritch and Grell-Devenyi 
ensemble within the WRF infrastructure, convective schemes may be tested and 
modified for tropical predictions (FY-2007 onwards)

(3) Advancing WRF/HWRF system with better vortex scale analysis techniques (e.g. 
FDDA and Nudging) for improving forecasts (FY 2007-2008.)

(4) Advancement of  WRF-NMM core with a mass conserved approach for two-way 
interactive nesting (FY 2007-2008.) 

(5) Advancing our understanding of Ensemble-vs-High Resolution Forecasting of 
Hurricanes (FY 2008-2009.)

(6) Advancement of the WRF system with multiple analysis options. Testing and 
evaluation of the impacts of the Global Analysis (GSI) and/or the NCAR 3Dvar 
analysis scheme on the larger scale environment (FY 2008-2009.)

(7) Understanding Dynamical/Thermodynamical  interactions of dust with hurricanes 
(FY 2008-2009.)
 
(8) Global to Local Scale modeling and prediction of Tropical Cyclones (FY 2009 
onwards; Atlas et al.  and Gopalakrishnan et al., 2007)

Key Reference:

(1) NCEP's Two-way-Interactive-Moving-Nest NMM-WRF modeling system for  
Hurricane Forecasting, S.G. Gopalakrishnan, N. Surgi, R. Tuleya, and Z. Janjic 
27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, 24-28 April 2006, 
Monterey, California.

(2) Improving Hurricane Prediction through innovative Global Modeling, Robert 
Atlas, Lin, S.J., Bo-Wen Shen, Oreste Reale and Kao-San Yeh.

(3) An Operational Multi-Scale Atmospheric Model with Grid Adaptivity for 
Hurricane  Forecasting, S.G. Gopalakrishnan, David P. Bacon, NashÕat N. 
Ahmad, Zafer Boybeyi, Thomas J. Dunn, Mary S. Hall, Yi Jin, Pius C. S. Lee, 
Rangaro V. Madala, R.Ananthakrishna Sarma, Mark D. Turner, and Tim Wait.  
MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW, 2002, VOL. 130, NO. 7, PP. 1830-1847


Colloboration (point of contact):

Dr.Robert Gall, Developmental Test Bed Center (DTC),NCAR, Boulder, CO. 
Dr.Steven Koch, Global Systems division (GSD),ESRL/OAR/NOAA,Boulder, CO.
Dr.Roland Draxler, Air Resources Laboratory, OAR/NOAA, Washington, D.C..

International Collaborators (point of contact):

Prof.U.C.Mohanty,Indian Institute of Technology, New Delhi,India.
Dr.H.R.Hatwar, India Meteorological Department, New Delhi, India.
Prof.Maithili Sharan, Indian Institute of Technology, New Delhi,India.