Group Name:  Synoptic Surveillance and Targeting

Group Leader:  Sim Aberson

Group Members:  Paul Leighton
                Stan Goldenberg
                Jason Dunion
                Nick Carrasco
                Bob Burpee
                Morris Bender (GFDL)
                Brian Etherton (UNCC)
                James Franklin (NHC)
                Sharanya Majumdar (UM/RSMAS)
                Tim Marchok (EMC at GFDL)
                Jack Parrish (AOC)
                Zoltan Toth (SAIC-EMC)
                Chun-Chieh Wu (NTU)

HRD group category:  Track

Objective:  Improvement of tropical cyclone forecasts through improvement 
            of initial conditions for numerical weather prediction models 
            by:

* targeting observations of opportunity such as dropwindsondes from the 
NOAA Gulfstream-IV to those regions most likely to positively impact the 
specific forecast
* improve the assimilation of targeted observations into numerical 
models.
* provide improved environmental data sets for other research projects.

Methods:

This will be accomplished by, in all available basins:

* conducting Observing Systems Experiments (OSEs)
* obtaining over-sampled data sets to test targeting strategies
* working to improve the assimilation of observations into current models
* testing next-generation data assimilation techniques (eg. ETKF) on
these data sets
* experimenting with various data resolutions in time and space
* automating the current operational procedures 

Accomplishments:

* Assessment of all NOAA synoptic surveillance missions in the Atlantic
and Eastern and Central Pacific Basins complete (link to webpage)
* Assessment of DOTSTAR surveillance missions in the Taiwan Region
complete.
* Automated flight track drawing software in final testing phase.
* Testing of ensemble-based targeting strategies versus a uniform
sampling strategy ongoing.
* Testing of ensemble-based data assimilation with VICBAR ongoing.

FY04 proposed milestones:

* Present 2003 assessment at National Hurricane Conference
* Present automated flight-track drawing procedures at Interdepartmental
Hurricane Conference
* Complete testing of automated flight-track drawing software
* Complete testing of ensemble-based targeting strategies versus uniform
sampling strategy
* Complete Year 1 Joint Hurricane Testbed project concerning operational
implementation of the Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter
* Compare humidity data from GPS dropwindsondes to initial conditions in
NCEP models.

References:

Aberson, S.D., and J.L. Franklin, 1999: Impact on hurricane track and
intensity forecasts of GPS dropwindsonde observations from the
first-season flights of the NOAA Gulfstream-IV jet aircraft. Bull. Amer.
Met. Soc., 80, 421-428.

Aberson, S.D., 2002: Two years of operational hurricane synoptic
surveillance. Wea. Forecasting, 17, 1101-1110.

Aberson, S.D., 2003: Targeted observations to improve operational
tropical cyclone track forecast guidance. Mon. Wea. Rev., 131,
1613-1628.

Aberson, S.D., and B. Etherton, 2004: Targeting and data assimilation 
studies during Hurricane Humberto (2001).  Submitted to J. Atmos. Sci.

_____

And the following is for the intranet site:

PI name and work months:  Sim Aberson  5.5 mo

HRD participant names and work months:  Paul Leighton  1.0 mo

Funding source and amount:  JHT

Computer or other hardware requirements:  none

Travel requirements:  none

Comments:
_____