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Synoptic Surveillance and Targeting Group

Team Leader: Sim Aberson (HRD)

Team Members:
Paul Leighton (HRD)
Bob Burpee (UM-CIMAS/HRD)
Jason Dunion (UM-CIMAS/HRD)
Nick Carrasco (UM-CIMAS/HRD)
Stan Goldenberg (HRD)
Morris Bender (GFDL)
Brian Etherton (UNCC)
Jimmy Franklin (NHC)
Sharanya Majumdar (UM/RSMAS) |:| RSMAS project page
Tim Marchok (EMC at GFDL)
Jack Parrish (AOC)
Zoltan Toth (SAIC-EMC)
Chun-Chieh Wu (NTU)

Objective:

Improvement of tropical cyclone forecasts through improvement of initial conditions for numerical weather prediction models by:

• targeting observations of opportunity such as dropwindsondes from the NOAA Gulfstream-IV to those regions most likely to positively impact the specific forecast
• improve the assimilation of targeted observations into numerical models.
• provide improved environmental data sets for other research projects.

Methods:

This will be accomplished by, in all available basins:

• conducting Observing Systems Experiments (OSEs)
• obtaining over-sampled data sets to test targeting strategies
• working to improve the assimilation of observations into current models
• testing next-generation data assimilation techniques (eg. ETKF) on these data sets.
• experimenting with various data resolutions in time and space
• automating the current operational procedures

Accomplishments:

• Assessment of all NOAA synoptic surveillance missions in the Atlantic and Eastern and Central Pacific Basins complete
• Assessment of DOTSTAR surveillance missions in the Taiwan Region complete.
• Automated flight track drawing software in final testing phase.
• Testing of ensemble-based targeting strategies versus a uniform sampling strategy ongoing.
• Testing of ensemble-based data assimilation with VICBAR ongoing.
• Present 2003 assessment at National Hurricane Conference
• Present automated flight-track drawing procedures at Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference
• Compare humidity data from GPS dropwindsondes to initial conditions in NCEP models.

FY05 proposed milestones :

• Complete testing of automated flight-track drawing software
• Complete testing of ensemble-based targeting strategies versus uniform sampling strategy
• Complete Year 2 Joint Hurricane Testbed project concerning operational implementation of the Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter

References:

Aberson, S.D., and J.L. Franklin, 1999: Impact on hurricane track and intensity forecasts of GPS dropwindsonde observations from the first-season flights of the NOAA Gulfstream-IV jet aircraft. Bull. Amer. Met. Soc., 80, 421-428.

Aberson, S.D., 2002: Two years of operational hurricane synoptic surveillance. Wea. Forecasting, 17, 1101-1110.

Aberson, S.D., 2003: Targeted observations to improve operational tropical cyclone track forecast guidance. Mon. Wea. Rev., 131, 1613-1628.

Aberson, S.D., and B. Etherton, 2004: Targeting and data assimilation studies during Hurricane Humberto (2001). Accepted by J. Atmos. Sci.

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Last modified: 5/10/2005