Tropical Cyclone Inner-Core Prediction group (formerly T-DESC)


Principal Investigator:

Cione

Collaborating PIs:

Uhlhorn, Kaplan, Aberson, M.Black, Barry, Feuer, Powell, Shay

Goals/Objectives:

To develop an improved understanding of how TC-induced surface forcing impacts oceanic and atmospheric boundary layer structure directly beneath the storm.

To test the short-term predictability (0-24h) of the TC-inner core near-surface thermodynamic environment.

To investigate the impact changes in inner-core surface fluxes have on TC intensity change.

Accomplishments/Milestones:

The Group is an outgrowth of results from both Cione and Uhlhorn (2003) and Cione et al (2000).Ê The former documented inner-core SST change using data from 23 TCs between 1975-2002 while the latter documented near-surface atmospheric thermodynamic conditions for 21 hurricanes.Ê Cione and Uhlhorn (2003) also demonstrated a clear linkage between inner core SST change and subsequent TC intensity change.

Preliminary work conducted by Uhlhorn and Cione designed to predict inner-core SST change using a TKE-closure ocean model has been encouraging.Ê Additional research in this area is anticipated.

Successful development and implementation (Lili 2002) of the HRD field program "Track-Dependant Inner core SST Change (T-DISC) field experiment.

Development of the TC Inner-Core Prediction group (formerly known as T-DISC).

Planned Research (2003):

Further group development.Ê Due to the fact that team is newly formed, roles and contributions from some of the group collaborators (and yet to be established outside collaborators) will be better defined as the year progresses.

Specifically, Co-Collaborators Cione, Kaplan and DeMaria (NESDIS) will attempt to come up new (e.g. SST change) predictors for future use in the SHIPS forecast model.Ê The clear linkage between SST change and intensity change shown in Cione and Uhlhorn (2003) is the motivating factor. This effort will be a formal proposal submitted to the JHT in 2003 (for funding between 6/2003 - 5/2005). The approximate 2 year total funding request will be 230K.

Continued development and refinement of the Uhlhorn and Cione modeling work designed to predict inner-core SST change given the storm's initial conditions and the (AXBT-derived) upper ocean temperature structure.Ê Regression results from Cione and Uhlhorn (2003) as well as data from the Lili 2002 "verification data set" will be utilized for this effort.

Begin preliminary analysis of the Lili Dataset.Ê This will give rise to spin-off topics yet to be determined by the group as well as other outside collaborators not yet identified.Ê Some possible areas of consideration include 'data verification' for coupled modeling efforts, a G4-based 'surrounding environment study', surface energy budget analytical study (Cione and Uhlhorn).

Resources needed (2003):

~$1000... SAS based statistical software (JUMP). Approximate cost for this licensed software is $1,000

~$2500-6000... IMSL licensed software need to incorporate new SHIPS predictors into existing SHIPS code.Ê exact cost is unclear.Ê Joe Griffin suggests $6,000.Ê Mark DeMaria gives a more conservative $2,500 estimate.Ê I for one leave this to others to decide (Kaplan - need) and Joe G. (cost).

~$3,000...My own personal computing situation is getting to the point where I will need some serious upgrades/repairs.Ê My 2yr+ G4 monitor is failing.Ê Two permanent vertical lines now reside on the screen.Ê Repair is 1000-1200 according to Macintosh.Ê Replacment is on the order of $2000.Ê I also need to get out of the 9.1 OS dark ages and into OSX and or Jaguar.Ê I am not certain how much this upgrade will cost.Ê I also need a new battery for the G4 (~$100) and if at all possible a network card and "airport" hub, given the fact that I do a fair amount of work from home.Ê I was encouraged to make the JHT proposal "salary heavy" (vs equipment needed etc).Ê I did exactly that.Ê However, if we plan to do this important work (funded or otherwise) we need to invest the minimal costs outlined here (i.e. less than 3K) to ensure that the work gets done.

~3000-6000 Travel.Ê IHC and/or Tropical conference for Cione, Kaplan (and Uhlhorn?).Ê Possible travel for Cione and/or Kaplan to Colorado to visit with M DeMaria regarding testing of new SHIPS parameters.

? $.....Other "built-in" Lab costs (e.g Lan or?)

References:

CIONE, J.J. and E. Uhlhorn 2003: Sea surface temperature variability in hurricanes: Implications with respect to intensity change.Ê In Press.Ê Mon. Wea. Rev.

CIONE, J.J., P. J. Black and S. Houston 2000:Ê Surface observations in the hurricane environment.Ê Mon. Wea. Rev., 128: 1550-1561.