\ Hurricane Research Division of AOML/NOAA
 
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NOAA's Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory
4301 Rickenbacker Causeway
Miami, FL 33149

Professional Interests

Currently I mainly work in simulated environments, using global simulations of Earth's meteorology to simulate new and current observations, with the goal of improving the medium-range (3-7 day) forecast skill.  I've worked with members of the AOML Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE) team since 2012, before officially joining AOML in 2016.  I'm particularly interested in characterization of instrument errors in simulated observations, model-state adjustments needed to match real-world model performance, and application of new methodologies in ways where an OSSE can be informative in how those methodologies are used in real-world model analyses and forecasts.

 

While I am proud to be a member of the OAR/AOML family, I do my work in College Park, MD, at the NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction (NCWCP).  This allows me to work closely with scientists in NESDIS/STAR and NWS/NCEP/EMC, sharing lessons learned within AOML-led projects while also tracking developments in observations and modelling of importance to AOML/HRD.

Current Research Projects

        Recently Published Peer-Reviewed Papers

        1. Aksoy, A. A Monte Carlo approach to understanding the impacts of initial-condition uncertainty, model uncertainty, and simulation variability on the predictability of chaotic systems: Perspectives from the one-dimensional logistic map. Chaos, 34(1):011102, https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0181705 2024
        2. Alaka, G.J. Jr., J.A. Sippel, Z. Zhang, H.-S Kim, F. Marks, V. Tallapragada, A. Mehra, X. Zhang, A. Poyer, and S.G. Gopalakrishnan. Lifetime performance of the operational Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) model for North Atlantic tropical cyclones. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-23-0139.1 2024
        3. Alarcon, V.J., A.C. Linhoss, C.R. Kelble, P.F. Mickle, A. Fine, and E. Montes. Potential challenges for the restoration of Biscayne Bay (Florida, USA) in the face of climate change effects revealed with predictive models. Oceans & Coastal Management, 247:106929, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2023.106929 2024

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