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Florida Public Hurricane Loss Projection Model

The Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology created a Base Set of Florida landfalling (and by-passing) hurricanes to be used as a reference set. Submitted computer models are supposed to produce similar statistics using this Base Set to the Commission's standards. The Florida Public Hurricane Loss Projection Model uses a reference set which has a few differences from the Base Set, mostly due to information in the NHC's HURDAT dataset, but also from published references. Below is a listing of where the Base Set and our reference set vary, and why the change was made.

References

Frances P. Ho, J.C. Su, Kl.L. Hanevich, R.J. Smith, and F.P. Richards, 1987:"Hurricane climatology for the Atlantic and Gulf coasts of the United States" NOAA Technical Memorandum, NWS-38, 193pp.

Christopher W. Landsea, C. Anderson, N. Charles, G. Clark, J. Dunion, J. Fernandez-Partagas, P. Hungerford, C. Neumann, and M. Zimmer, 2004: The Atlantic hurricane database re-analysis project: Documentation for the 1851-1910 alterations and additions to the HURDAT database. "Hurricanes and Typhoons : Past, Present, and Future" R.J. Murname and K-B Liu, Editors, Columbia University Press, p. 177-221

Region A differences

  • Storm 3 1903 - Second landfall in Region A, wind speed adjusted to agree with Ho et al. and HURDAT.
  • Storm 1 1911 - Becomes Storm 2 1911, as an additional storm was added to the latest version of HURDAT. Wind at landfall adjusted to agree with HURDAT.
  • Storm 4 1912 - Not counted as a landfall in Region A. Kept as a landfall in Region F.
  • Storm 3 1917 - Pressure and wind at landfall adjusted to agree with HURDAT.
  • Storm 6 1926 - Counted as By-pass NOT a landfall in Region A. Kept as a landfall in Region F.
  • Storm 2 1929 - Landfall pressure adjusted to agree with HURDAT.
  • Storm 2 1935 - Changed to Category 1 at landfall. This is consistent with HURDAT winds and not the trailer code. (Reidentified as Storm 3 1935 with 2012 reanalysis.)
  • Storm 2 1939 - Pressure at exit adjusted to agree with pressure wind relationship.
  • Storm 5 1941 - Winds at landfall adjusted to agree with HURDAT.
  • Easy 1950 - Landfall is chosen 11 hoursafter the Commission's choice due to loop the hurricane makes during this period.
  • Gladys 1968 - Winds at landfall adjusted to agree with HURDAT.
  • Agnes 1972 - Pressure and winds at landfall adjusted to agree with HURDAT.
  • Eloise 1975 - Winds at landfall adjusted to agree with HURDAT.
  • Kate 1985 - Pressure and winds at landfall adjusted to agree with HURDAT. This upped the S-S Category to 2.
  • Jeanne 2004 - Base Set shows an exit in Region A at hurricane strength, but HURDAT does not have the eye cross the coast in this Region. In addition, by the time the center was near this coast, Jeanne had slipped below hurricane strength. So we show no Exit in Region A for Jeanne.
  • Dennis 2005 - Winds at landfall adjusted to agree with HURDAT.
Region B differences

  • Storm 2 1906 - Base Set shows entry in Region C and no exit. HURDAT shows entry in Region B and exit in Region C. Landfall values are applied to Region B entry, and corrected exit values applied to Region C.
  • Storm 8 1906 - Pressure at landfall adjusted to agree with HURDAT.
  • Storm 8 1909 - This is now Storm 10 1909 in new version of HURDAT. Instead of a bypass in Region C, landfalls in Region B and C were added for a strike in the Florida Keys. Pressure and winds adjusted to agree with Ho et al.
  • Storm 5 1910 - Base set uses pressure and winds from a ship report as reported in Ho, et al. However, landfall values were for a weaker storm. Pressure, wind, and category at landfall adjusted.
  • Storm 2 1929 - Seafall in Region B added.
  • Storm 6 1935 - Pressure at exit adjusted upward to agree with inland decay model. Base set keeps pressure the same as at landfall.(Reidentified as Storm 7 1935 with 2012 reanalysis.)
  • Storm 5 1941 - Pressure at exit adjusted to agree with inland decay model.
  • Storm 4 1947 - Pressure at seafall adjusted for over land decay.
  • Storm 7 1948 - Pressure at landfall adjusted to pressure-wind relationship.
  • Storm 8 1948 - Base Set designates only landfall in Region C. HURDAT track shows initial landfall in Region B as a Category 3 hurricane.
  • Donna 1960 - Winds at landfall adjusted to agree with HURDAT.
  • Inez 1966 - Pressure and winds at landfall adjusted to agree with HURDAT.
  • Andrew 1992 - Pressure and winds at seafall adjusted to agree with HURDAT.
  • Irene 1999 - Winds at landfall adjusted to agree with HURDAT.
  • Charley 2004 - Pressure and winds at landfall adjusted to agree with HURDAT.
  • Frances 2004 - HURDAT shows Frances below hurricane strength when it exits Region B. Therefore there is no Exit shown.
  • Jeanne 2004 - Base Set shows an exit in Region B at hurricane strength, but HURDAT does not have the eye cross the coast in this Region. In addition, by the time the center was near this coast, Jeanne had slipped below hurricane strength. So we show no Exit in Region B for Jeanne.
  • Katrina 2005 - Exit in Region B added, as HURDAT maintains it at hurricane strength during seafall.
  • Wilma 2005 -Winds at landfall adjusted to agree with HURDAT.
Region C differences

  • Storm 3 1903 - Winds and category at landfall adjusted to agree with HURDAT.
  • Storm 3 1904 - Listed as a Category 1 hurricane in Region C. It was included in the data set, although not included in the Commission's Base Set. Probably overlooked because CFL1 flag was missing from an earlier version of HURDAT.
  • Storm 2 1906 - Base Set shows entry in Region C and no exit. HURDAT shows entry in Region B and exit in Region C. Landfall values are applied to Region B entry, and corrected exit values applied to Region C.
  • Storm 1 1926 - Landfall moved from Region D to Region C to comply with Fla. Commission's regional definition. Also winds at landfall reduced to Category 1 to agree with HURDAT.
  • Storm 6 1926 - Pressure and wind adjusted to agree with HURDAT.
  • Storm 4 1928 - Trailer codes and Commission define this as a Category 4. However the winds at landfall in HURDAT show it as Category 3. Suspect the HURDAT wind values represent hurricane AFTER landfall, but are assigned to the Latitude and Longitude of the landfall.
  • Storm 12 1933 - HURDAT winds prior to landfall are Category 4 and after landfall are Category 3. Commission and trailer code use the latter values to define landfall conditions, but we selected the earlier since it is more reasonable to assume hurricane weakened after landfall.(Reidentified as Storm 11 1933 with 2012 reanalysis.)
  • Storm 2 1939 - Pressure at landfall adjusted to agree with HURDAT.
  • Storm 8 1947 - Pressure and wind at landfall adjusted to pressure-wind relationship.
  • Storm 8 1948 - Base Set shows Category 1 winds of 86 mph at landfall. HURDAT shows winds of 110 to 127 mph around landfall, at minimum a Category 2 at landfall. Also, initial landfall was in Florida Keys at a Category 3.
  • King 1950 - Because of possible error in sequence of days in HURDAT landfall pressure is very high. Never the less our pressure is set to agree with HURDAT.
  • Cleo 1964 - Pressure and winds at landfall adjusted to agree with HURDAT.
  • Betsy 1965 - Winds adjusted to agree with HURDAT.
  • David 1979 - Pressure and winds at landfall adjusted to agree with HURDAT.
  • Charley 2004 - Exit in Region C not used.
  • Katrina 2005 - Pressure and winds at landfall adjusted to agree with HURDAT.
  • Wilma 2005 - Pressure and winds at landfall adjusted to agree with HURDAT.
Region D differences

  • Storm 1 1926 - Moved from Region D to Region C to comply with Fla Commission's regional definition.
  • Dora 1964 - Winds at landfall adjusted to agree with HURDAT.
  • Gladys 1968 - Pressure and winds at exit adjusted to agree with HURDAT.
  • Charley 2004 - Pressure adjusted to agree with H*Wind.
Region E differences

  • Storm 3 1940 - Category adjusted to agree with winds.
  • Storm 8 1947 - Category adjusted to agree with winds.
Region F differences

  • Storm 6 1926 - Landfall in Region F NOT Region A.
By-pass differences

  • Storm 8 1909 - This is now Storm 10 1909 in new version of HURDAT. Instead of a bypass in Region C, landfalls in Region B and C were added for a strike in the Florida Keys. Pressure and winds adjusted to agree with Ho et al.
  • Storm 3 1911 - Not counted as a By-passing storm.
  • Storm 3 1912 - This is now Storm 4 1912 in new version of HURDAT.
  • Storm 6 1926 - Added as a By-Pass for Region A.
  • Baker 1950 - By-pass in Region A added.
  • Frederic 1979 - Pressure and winds at By-pass of Region A adjusted to agree with HURDAT.
  • Danny 1997 - By-pass in Region A added.
  • Ivan 2004 - Winds at by-pass and landfall adjusted to agree with H*Wind analysis.
  • Rita 2005 - Winds at by-pass adjusted to agree with HURDAT.
  • Gustav 2008 - Added as a by-passing storm due to winds affecting Florida.
  • Ike 2008 - Added as a by-passing storm due to winds affecting Florida.

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