WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION
WMO TROPICAL METEOROLOGY RESEARCH PROGRAMME (TMRP)
COMMISSION FOR ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES (CAS)
TOPIC CHAIRMAN AND RAPPORTEUR REPORTS OF THE
FIFTH WMO INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP ON
TROPICAL CYCLONES
(IWTC-V)
CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA
3-12 DECEMBER 2002
WMO/TD No. 1136
Secretariat of the World Meteorological Organization
Geneva, Switzerland
Foreword
This volume contains most of the Keynote presentations and Topic Chair and Rapporteurs reports for the fifth International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (IWTC-V). The keynote session on Present and Future Satellite Observations for Tropical Cyclone Research and Forecasting includes various forecast office present uses and needs, some near-term applications, and future satellite systems. The Topics include: (1) Structure and structure change including intensity change; (2) Tropical cyclone-related precipitation; (3) Tropical Cyclone Motion; (4) Tropical cyclone formation and extratropical transition; and (5) Tropical cyclone impacts. The two primary purposes of the Topic reports are to summarize progress since IWTC-IV and to make recommendations for the IWTC-V participants to consider.
My thanks especially go to the Topic Chairs and Rapporteurs for preparing these reports. Where possible, the Rapporteurs solicited inputs from Working Group members and sought comments on early drafts of the reports. Clearly, the Internet has been an essential communication link in the preparation of these reports.
I believe this volume will do much to ensure the success of IWTC-V in planning for the future.
Russell L. Elsberry
Director, IWTC-V
TABLE OF CONTENTS
KEYNOTE TOPIC
PRESENT AND FUTURE USES OF SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS Chris Velden
FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECASTING AND RESEARCH John LeMarshall
0.1 Forecast office present uses
-
Bureau of Meteorology Jeff Callaghan
-
Fiji Meteorological Service Alipate Waqaicelua
-
*Philippe Caroff
-
Satellite applications for TC analysisand forecasting at TPC/NHC
Lixion Avila
-
Satellite applications at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Greg Engel
0.2 Imminent uses and data assimilation
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TRMM and SCAT Tetsuo Nakazawa
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SCAT applications Roger Edson
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AMSU applications Kurt Brueske
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Geostationary IR Jim Kossin
-
Data assimilation John LeMarshall
Chris Velden Jeff Hawkins
0.4 Special focus
Satellite data assimilation plans at selected forecast centers
- Data assimilation at JMA Hideo Tada
- * Data assimilation at ECMWF David Richardson
- * Data assimilation at NCEP Naomi Surgi
- * Data assimilation at UKMO Julian Heming
- Data assimilation at CMS Xue Jishan
- * Data assimilation at FNMOC Jim Goerss
1.1 Observations/Field Experiments Frank Marks
1.2 Environmental effects Elizabeth Ritchie-Tyo
1.3 Role of convective processes Roger Smith
1.4 Air-ocean interface and boundary processes Lynn Shay
1.5 Numerical model guidance Shuyi Chen, Naomi Surgi
1.6 Structure analysis and forecasting techniques Edwin ST Lai
Special Focus Topic 1
2.1 Observing and forecasting rainfall Chen Lianshou
2.2 Data assimilation and numerical
prediction of precipitation Woo-Jin Lee
2.3 Hydrological models of precipitation Sun-Fatt Chong
2.4 Coastal and inland wind structure changes Jeff Kepert
2.5 Storm surge Shishir Dube
Special Focus Topic 2
- SF2a * World Weather Research Program on
Tropical Cyclone Landfall - Gary Foley, Greg Holland, Rit Carbone
3.1 Numerical and statistical model guidance and improvements Noel Davidson
3.2 Consensus approach to track forecasting Rich Jeffries Edward Fukada
3.3 Ensemble prediction system Lance Leslie
3.4 Theoretical advancements Johnny Chan
Special Focus Topic 3
- SF3a.* U. S. Weather Research Project Hurricane Landfall (2004)
collaborations Russell Elsberry, Ramesh Kakar, Frank Marks
- SF3b.* Tutorial on track consensus forecasting and SAFA
Rich Jeffries
4.1 Formation definitions Mark Lander
4.2 Observations in addition to satellites Jeff Callaghan
4.3 Large-scale control and mesoscale influences;
Intraseasonal Jenni Evans
4.4 Predictions of formation with numerical models Mike Montgomery
4.5 Seasonal formation predictions Bin Wang
4.6 Extratropical transition Jim Abraham
Special Focus Topic 4
5.1 Societal impacts Jim Weyman, Linda Anderson-Berry
5.2 Economic analysis Richard Murnane
5.3 Effective warnings T. C. Lee
Special Focus Topic 5
- * 5a. Australian Tropical Cyclone Coastal
Impacts Program Planning Jim Davidson
- * 5b. Tutorial on Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU) Kurt Brueske, Chris Velden
- * 5c. Tutorial on Advanced Objective Dvorak Technique Jim Kossin, Chris Velden
* paper not available