Best Track Committee
Responses to the Re-Analysis Project Proposed Revisions to 1931-1933
[Responses to the Committee are in
boldface – Hagen/Landsea – February 2012]
committee concurs with the majority of the comments, changes, and correction
that have been made. The committee
still has some issues included in the points below.
committee notes the finding of the decoders for the 1930’s coded ship reports
and the impact it had on the various 1933 cyclones. This is most welcome and very good work!
General comment #1: The loss of the EDADS web site is an increasing problem in
the committee’s reviews of the re-analysis submissions. There are several storms, both in the
1931-1933 time frame and in other years, where Original Monthly Record (OMR)
data would be very valuable to the committee in its deliberations. Not having the OMRs available slows the
pace of the re-analysis and opens up the process to criticism that it has not
been as thorough as it could have been.
Please expedite the efforts to obtain all the necessary OMRs,
including those for landfalling tropical storms. This effort should not only cover years
that have not yet been re-analyzed, but also the years which have been analyzed
that the committee has not yet taken up (e. g. 1944-1953).
an example, there are these unfulfilled requests for additional OMRs in the
Š 1931 Storm #2 (Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Florida
Original Monthly Records are not available, other sources have been identified
that provide much of the same information.
The Daily Weather Maps (DWMs) and Monthly State Climatological Data from
the four states have now been obtained.
The Monthly Local Climatological Data for Vicksburg, MS was obtained. The Daily Weather Maps commentary from
15 July agrees with the most recent analysis of a landfall in the vicinity of
Morgan City during the morning of the 15th. Strong rains and gusty winds extended to
the coastlines of MS and AL, but these winds and rains were much less in the
Florida panhandle. Local Climatological
Data states the minimum pressure for the month at Vicksburg, MS was 1008 mb on
the 16th. On the 16th
at 13Z, the pressure was 1010 mb at both Vicksburg, MA and Shreveport, LA. Although there is some new data from
these sources that have been recently accessed, none of the data suggests that
the analyzed track and intensity needs any further changes.
Š 1931 Storm #4 (San Juan)
the DWMs was obtained. Also climatological
information from NCDC was obtained from the West Indies and Jamaica. All 3 sources are consistent in
mentioning the system as a weak tropical disturbance and that no gale force
winds were recorded with it. At 13Z
on the 17th, the pressure at San Juan was 1011 mb with winds 5 kt NW. We could
not obtain any additional information for San Juan. None of the new data obtained provides
evidence for any additional track or intensity changes to this system. We believe that there is not enough
evidence to remove this system from HURDAT even though there were no gales
observed because of the very sparse nature of available observations.
Š 1932 Storm #3 (San Juan)
Š 1932 Storm #8 (Louisiana, Mississippi)
Š 1933 Storm #6 (Brownsville)
Š 1933 Storm #11 (Brownsville)
Š 1933 Storm #17 (San Juan)
The responses to these will be provided in the 1932 and 1933
related note regards observations from Mexico. While the committee recognizes that
Mexican data will be far sparser than U. S. data, it is wondering if more can
be obtained than has been so far?
Previous discussions mentioned that Mexican observations were being
added to EDADS before it went down, and those have been used in the re-analysis. These obs have
to have a source other than EDADS.
Can they be obtained directly from NCDC? Is there any Mexican equivalent to NCDC
that might provide this data?
some Mexican synoptic maps and once daily 13Z observations from several
stations from the Mexican NCDC website for the following storms and printed out
synoptic maps and obs from the following storms: 1931 storm #s 1, 3, 6 (originally 5), 7
Storm #6: Has the Meteorological Service of Belize been able to provide more
information on the 952 mb pressure observation and the passage of the eye over
Belize City? Please keep digging on
this, as there should be at least some additional information available on this
standout event for Belize City.
additional information on this system was available from the Meteorological
Service of Belize.
Storm #9 (late addition): The committee concurs with adding this storm to
HURDAT. Please provide the maps for
the binder and all the necessary updates for the metadata.
maps from 12-16 October have been printed out and placed in the binder. A sentence was added to each of the 12,
13, and 14 October paragraphs to state that there were no gales or low
pressures observed on those days.
Storm #11: The committee would like to see the thermal analyses for this
system. Also, there is a concern
regard the gale wind reports: These are all a considerable distance from the
center, and one of them (45 kt observation at 0600
UTC 3 November) reports a northwest wind at a location northwest of the
center. Please review the ships
data to see if these reports were associated with a cold surge, or whether this
system had perhaps the characteristics of a subtropical or monsoon cyclone.
thermal analyses have now been provided for this system and they have been
placed in the binder. It is noted
that there may have been some funneling of winds and slightly cooler air along
the east coast of Central America on the 2nd to the 4th
in association with this system.
However, a distinct minimum in wind speed occurred in the winds north of
the system near the Yucatan Channel, western Cuba, and south Florida,
suggesting that the cyclone was a separate entity producing (at least in part)
the numerous tropical storm force winds.
Observations during much of the system’s lifetime show that winds on the
southeast side of the cyclone were light compared to the other quadrants, but
there are enough observations to analyze a closed circulation. Additionally, the thermal structure was
analyzed, which indicated relatively isothermal for the four days the system
had tropical storm force winds.
Since a closed circulation is analyzed along with numerous observations
of gale force winds from at least five separate ships and the isothermal
structure, this system is added to HURDAT. In general, these gale force winds
were 75 to 200 nm from the center suggesting that the system did have some
subtropical cyclone characteristics.