1945 Atlantic Hurricane Season Reanalysis - Andrew Hagen and Chris Landsea
"Minor" intensity changes are less than 20 kt
"Minor" position changes are less than 2 degrees
1945 Storm 1
32725 06/20/1945 M=12 1 SNBR= 724 NOT NAMED XING=1 SSS=1
32725 06/20/1945 M=15 1 SNBR= 724 NOT NAMED XING=1 SSS=1
**
32730 06/20* 0 0 0 0* 0 0 0 0*175 857 35 0*183 859 35 0*
32730 06/20* 0 0 0 0* 0 0 0 0*190 857 35 0*195 859 40 0*
*** *** **
32735 06/21*192 861 35 0*203 862 35 0*214 863 40 0*222 863 40 0*
32735 06/21*200 861 40 0*206 862 40 0*214 863 40 0*222 863 40 0*
*** ** *** **
32740 06/22*230 864 40 0*238 864 45 0*245 865 45 0*252 866 50 0*
32745 06/23*259 866 50 0*266 865 50 0*272 862 55 0*276 856 100 0*
32745 06/23*259 866 50 0*266 866 55 0*272 865 70 0*276 860 85 0*
*** ** *** ** *** ***
32750 06/24*280 846 95 0*285 835 80 0*290 824 70 0*298 813 60 0*
32750 06/24*280 850 80 0*285 835 70 0*290 820 50 0*298 810 60 0*
*** ** ** *** ** ***
32755 06/25*307 801 65 0*317 791 70 0*328 781 60 0*335 775 60 0*
32755 06/25*307 801 65 0*317 793 65 0*328 785 65 0*338 775 65 0*
*** ** *** ** *** **
32760 06/26*343 768 50 0*358 753 45 0*373 738 50 0*383 725 55 0*
32760 06/26*346 767 65 0*358 755 65 0*373 738 65 0*384 723 65 0*
*** *** ** *** ** ** *** *** **
32765 06/27*392 713 60 0*400 701 55 0*408 690 55 0*415 677 55 0*
32765 06/27*394 711 65 0E402 701 65 0E408 690 65 0E413 681 55 0*
*** *** ** **** ** * ** **** ***
32770 06/28*420 663 45 0E421 642 45 0E422 626 45 0E425 620 40 0*
32770 06/28E417 673 45 0E419 665 45 0E422 655 45 0E426 644 40 0*
**** *** *** *** *** *** ***
32775 06/29E429 613 40 0E434 607 40 0E441 600 40 0E467 570 40 0*
32775 06/29E431 632 40 0E438 617 40 0E448 600 40 0E459 583 40 0*
*** *** *** *** *** *** ***
32780 06/30E490 544 35 0E503 528 35 0E517 507 35 0E529 489 35 0*
32780 06/30E471 566 35 0E485 548 35 0E500 530 35 0E517 505 35 0*
*** *** *** *** *** *** *** ***
32785 07/01E543 468 35 0E560 445 35 0E578 412 35 0* 0 0 0 0*
32785 07/01E536 475 35 0E558 442 35 0E578 412 35 0E593 390 35 0*
*** *** *** *** **** *** **
(The 2nd through the 4th are new to HURDAT.)
32786 07/02E603 373 40 0E607 358 40 0E610 345 40 0E612 333 40 0*
32787 07/03E614 323 35 0E617 313 35 0E620 300 30 0E624 286 30 0*
32788 07/04E629 271 30 0E636 256 30 0E645 240 25 0* 0 0 0 0*
32790 HRAFL1
U.S. Landfalls:
6/24/1945 08Z 28.6N 82.7W 70 kt 985 mb 1011 mb OCI 200 nmi ROCI
6/26/1945 01Z 34.7N, 76.6W 60 kt (intensity in revised HURDAT is 65 kt, as the peak
winds remained offshore)
Minor track (during the tropical phase) and major intensity changes are made to this
early-season hurricane that made landfall in Florida. Extratropical transition is now
indicated to have occurred one day earlier than originally. Three additional days were
also introduced for this system during its extratropical cyclone phase. Evidence for these
alterations comes from the Historical Weather Map series, the COADS ships database,
the Monthly Weather Review, the Original Monthly Records from NCDC, NHC
microfilm of synoptic weather maps, Dunn and Miller (1960), and Jarrell et al. (1992).
June 19:
HWM does not analyze a closed low on this day. HURDAT does not list a system on
this day. No gales or low pressures.
June 20:
HWM analyzes a closed low of at most 1010 mb centered near 18N, 86W. HURDAT
lists this as a 35 kt tropical storm at 17.5N, 85.7W. The MWR post-season track map
shows a 00Z position near 15.5N, 84.0W and a 12Z position near 17.4N, 85.7W.
Microfilm shows a low of at most 1008 mb centered near 18N, 85.5W. Ship highlights:
25 kt SE and 1004 mb (4 mb too low) at 19.5N, 83.5W (COA). One other low pressure
from same ship. Land highlights: 10 kt E and 1005 mb at 18Z at Cozumel, Mexico
(micro). Aircraft highlights: 35 kt SE at 14Z at 21.2N, 83.8W (micro). "A definite
circulation was observed on the 20th when the disturbance was about 100 miles WNW of
Swan Island" (MWR).
June 21:
HWM analyzes a closed low of at most 1005 mb centered near 21.5N, 86.2W. HURDAT
lists this as a 40 kt tropical storm at 21.4N, 86.3W. The MWR tracks of centers of
cyclones shows a position near 19.6N, 85W with a pressure of 1000 mb. The MWR
post-season track map shows 00Z and 12Z positions near the HURDAT positions.
Microfilm shows a low of at most 999 mb centered near the HURDAT position. Ship
highlights: 20 kt SE and 1004 mb (4 mb too low) at 02Z at 18.5N, 83.5W (COA). Land
highlights: 30 kt NW and 1005 mb at 12Z at Cozumel, Mexico (micro). Aircraft
highlights: 35 kt S at 16Z at 21.0N, 86.3W (micro); 35 kt SW at 1645Z at 20.0N, 87.0W
(micro). "The storm, attended by moderate gales and squalls, moved through the
Yucatan Channel and into the Gulf of Mexico" (MWR).
June 22:
HWM analyzes a tropical storm of at most 1005 mb centered near 24.2N, 87.4W.
HURDAT lists this as a 45 kt tropical storm at 24.5N, 86.5W. The MWR tracks of
centers of cyclones shows a 00Z position near 21.7N, 85.5W and a 12Z position near
23N, 85W with a 999 mb pressure. The MWR post-season track map shows 00Z and
12Z positions near the HURDAT positions. Microfilm shows a low of at most 999 mb
centered near 24.5N, 85.9W. Aircraft highlights: 40 kt ESE at 1345Z at 25.2N, 85.1W
(micro). Two other gales.
June 23:
HWM analyzes a tropical storm of at most 1005 mb centered near 27.5N, 87W.
HURDAT lists this as a 55 kt tropical storm at 27.2N, 86.2W. The MWR tracks of
centers of cyclones shows a 00Z position near 25N, 85.3W and a 12Z position near 27N,
85.5W with a 999 mb pressure. The MWR post-season track map shows a 00Z position
near 26.3N, 86.4W, and a 12Z position near 27.4N, 86.2W. Microfilm shows a low of at
most 1002 mb centered near 27.4N, 86.9W. Aircraft highlights: 100 kt N and 997 mb at
2015Z at 28.3N, 85.5W (micro); 30 kt SSE and 1003 mb at 1245Z at 27.5N, 86.3W
(micro); Eight other gales. One other low pressure. "It moved to the vicinity of 27.5N,
86.5W where it turned sharply northeastward and developed winds of full hurricane force
as it approached the Florida coast. The crew of the reconnaissance plane which flew into
the storm about 120 miles south of Apalachicola on the afternoon of the 23rd, estimated
winds of 100 knots at two observation points near the center" (MWR).
June 24:
HWM analyzes a tropical storm of at most 1005 mb centered near 29.1N, 81.8W.
HURDAT lists this as a 70 kt hurricane at 29.0N, 82.4W. The MWR tracks of centers of
cyclones shows a 00Z position near 27.9N, 83.6W and a 12Z position near 28.5N, 82W
with a 999 mb pressure. The MWR post-season track map shows 00Z and 12Z positions
very close to HURDAT's position. Microfilm shows a low of at most 1002 mb centered
in between the HWM and HURDAT positions. Ship highlights: 40 kt S and 1007 mb at
22Z at 29.5N, 79.5W (COA). Thirteen other gales between 35-40 kt. Land highlights:
45 kt SW and 1005 mb at 07Z at Tampa (micro); 52 kt at 08Z at Tampa, Florida (micro);
30 kt NNE and 1002 mb at 18Z at Jacksonville, FL (micro); 52 kt at 23Z at Tybee Island,
Georgia (micro). Eight other gales and ten other low pressures. Aircraft highlights: 35 kt
SE at 23Z at 30.5N, 78.0W (micro). One other gale. "The storm diminished in intensity
as it reached the west coast of Florida and passed inland between Brooksville and
Dunellon at about 4:00 am June 24. The circulation remained intact as the storm crossed
the peninsula, attended by exceptionally heavy rains and winds of 45 to 55 miles per
hour, moving into the Atlantic about noon of the 24th between Daytona Beach and St.
Augustine" (MWR). "At the (Jacksonville) city office, the wind changed from northeast
through north to northwest, with a maximum of 33 mph from the north at 3:01 pm EST of
the 24th and an extreme of 35. The barometer did not register a decided rise until 6 pm.
The wind damage at Jacksonville was slight, a few trees, wires and awnings blown down
but total loss was probably less than $500" (OMR). "A 24-hour rainfall total of 10.42
inches at Tampa broke all previous records at that station" (MWR). "Highest tide (at
Tampa) was 5.2 feet about mean low water. The tropical storm was very beneficial to
agriculture and caused only slight damage by wind and tides" (Tampa OMR). "Tropical
Cyclones in Florida, 1945 June 24, N of Clearwater, Minimal ("Minimal" indicates winds
of 74 to 100 mph, and 983 to 996 mb central pressure- Dunn and Miller). "1945 Jun FL,
1NW, 985 mb" - Jarrell et al.).
June 25:
HWM analyzes a tropical storm of at most 1000 mb centered near 32.5N, 79W.
HURDAT lists this as a 60 kt tropical storm at 32.8N, 78.1W. The MWR tracks of
centers of cyclones shows a 00Z position near 30.7N, 80.7W, and a 12Z position near
32N, 79W with a 998 mb pressure. The MWR post-season track map shows a 00Z
position near 31.1N, 80.2W and a 12Z position near HURDAT's position. Microfilm
shows a low of at most 996 mb centered near 33N, 78.9W. Ship highlights: 40 kt SW
and 1007 mb at 01Z at 29.5N, 79.5W (COA). Seven other gales. Land highlights: 57 kt
ENE at 02Z at Tybee Island (32.0N, 80.9W) (micro); 35 kt NW and 1001 mb at 12Z at
Charleston, SC (32.6N, 80.1W) (micro); 999 mb at 1230Z at Sullivans Island, SC
(micro); 15 kt NE and 999 mb at 18Z at Myrtle Beach, SC (micro); 15 kt NNE and 998 at
18Z at Wilmington, NC (micro). Four other gales and six other low pressures between
998-1005 mb. Aircraft highlights: 40 kt NNW at 1645Z at 32.5N, 79.0W (micro). Two
other gales. "Over the Atlantic it regained hurricane intensity, as indicated by reports of
winds reaching 70 miles per hour in gusts at Tybee Island (Georgia) and Paris Island,
while the center was moving northeastward some 60 miles offshore" (MWR). "Tropical
Cyclones in the South Atlantic States - Carolinas and Georgia, 1945 June 25, N.C.
Capes, Minor" ("Minor" indicates winds less than 74 mph and pressure above 996 mb -
Dunn and Miller).
June 26:
HWM analyzes a hurricane of at most 995 mb centered near 38N, 73.3W with an
approaching, but weakening cold front from the northwest. HURDAT lists this as a 50 kt
tropical storm at 37.3N, 73.8W. The MWR tracks of centers of cyclones shows a 00Z
position near 34N, 76.6W and a 12Z position near 36.5N, 74W with a 998 mb pressure.
The MWR post-season track map shows a 00Z position near 35N, 76.1W and a 12Z
position near 37N, 74W. Microfilm shows a low of at most 996 mb centered near 37.5N,
73.5W. Ship highlights: 40 kt N and 1003 mb at 13Z at 37.5N, 76.5W (COA); 40 kt S
and 994 mb at 23Z at 38.5N, 68.5W (COA). Thirteen other gales and eleven other low
pressures. Land highlights: 25 kt WNW and 989 mb at 6Z at Cape Hatteras, NC (micro);
48 kt NW around 08Z at Cape Hatteras, NC (OMR); 39 kt NE at 2330Z at Nantucket,
MA (OMR). Six other gales and ten other low pressures. Aircraft highlights: 40 kt W at
1315Z at 36.0N, 72.5W (micro); 40 kt SW at 14Z at 37.7N, 71.0W (micro). Unknown
highlights: 40 kt SSE and 997 mb at 38.2N, 69.6W (micro). Three other gales and two
other low pressures. "It again lost force as it approached the North Carolina Capes,
where the center passed over or very near Cape Hatteras about midnight of the 25th (5Z
26th), accompanied by winds of about 50 miles per hour. Indications are that for the third
time, the storm regained hurricane intensity as it moved northeastward over the open
waters of the north Atlantic" (MWR).
June 27:
HWM analyzes a hurricane of at most 995 mb centered near 41N, 69W with no frontal
boundaries plotted anywhere near the hurricane. HURDAT lists this as a 55 kt tropical
storm at 40.8N, 69.0W. The MWR tracks of centers of cyclones shows a 00Z position
near 39N, 71.2W, and a 12Z position near 40.5N, 68.5W with a 997 mb pressure. The
MWR post-season track map shows a 00Z position near 39N, 71.6W and a 12Z position
near 40.8N, 69W. Microfilm shows a low of at most 990 mb centered near 40.5N,
67.5W. Ship highlights: 65 kt SSW and 997 mb at 1Z at 38.5N, 68.5W (COA); 60 kt
SSW and 991 mb at 02Z at 38.5N, 68.5W (COA). Dozens of other gales and low
pressures. Land highlights: 59 kt (1-min) NE at 0731Z at Nantucket, MA (OMR); 45 kt
NE and 997 mb at 08Z at Nantucket, MA (OMR). Eleven other gales and three other low
pressures at Nantucket. "The center of the storm passed southeast of Nantucket during
the night of the 26-27th, its forward movement considerably retarded. Gale winds
prevailed at Nantucket from 7:00 pm EST of the 26th to 7:00 am EST of the 27th.
Damage was mostly confined to the waterfront where high tides and northeast gales
caused damage to a few small craft which were not adequately protected. Some trouble
was also experienced from falling branches; power and communication lines in some
sections suffered damage. The rainfall of 4.60 inches in 24 hours set a new record for
June" (OMR). "The storm center reached a position south of Nova Scotia on the 27th,
and thereafter weakened and dissipated" (MWR).
June 28:
HWM analyzes a tropical storm of at most 1000 mb centered near 41.9N, 66W with the
western end of a W-E stationary front a few hundred miles east of the center. HURDAT
lists this as extratropical with a 45 kt intensity at 42.2N, 62.6W. The MWR tracks of
centers of cyclones shows a 00Z position near 40.6N, 66.5W and a 12Z position near
41N, 64.5W with a 999 mb pressure. The MWR post-season track map last shows this
system at 00Z near 42.5N, 66.3W. Microfilm last shows this system at 06Z as a low of at
most 999 mb with a position near 41N, 65.7W. Ship highlights: 35 kt WSW and 1003
mb at 06Z at 38.6N, 65.6W (micro). Six other gales and two other low pressures. Land
highlights: 23 kt NNE and 1004 mb at 0030Z at Nantucket, MA.
June 29:
HWM analyzes a closed low of at most 1005 mb centered near 45N, 60W with a front
extending from the low eastward. HURDAT lists this as extratropical with a 40 kt
intensity at 44.1N, 60.0W. The MWR tracks of centers of cyclones shows a 00Z position
near 41.4N, 62.9W and a 12Z position near 42.8N, 60.6W with a 1004 mb pressure. Ship
highlights: 20 kt SSW and 1004 mb at 12Z at 44.0N, 60.0W (HWM); 35 kt SW and 1016
mb at 16Z at 41.5N, 55.5W (COA).
June 30:
HWM analyzes a closed low of at most 1005 mb near 48.5N, 50.8W at the west end of a
dissipating front. HWM analyzes another low of at most 1005 mb embedded in a frontal
zone near 53N, 50W. HURDAT lists this as extratropical with a 35 kt intensity at 51.7N,
50.7W. The MWR tracks for centers of cyclones shows a 00Z position near 45.2N,
57.3W and a 12Z position near 49N, 52W. Ship highlights: 20 kt SE and 1003 mb at 18Z
at 55.5N, 44.0W (COA); 15 kt SSW and 1000 mb at 21Z at 55.5N, 44.0W (COA).
July 1:
HWM analyzes a large extratropical cyclone of at most 990 mb centered near 57.5N,
37.5W. HURDAT lists this as extratropical with a 35 kt intensity at 57.8N, 41.2W. Ship
highlights: 20 kt W and 993 mb at 06Z at 55.5N, 44.0W (COA); 35 kt NNW and 1000
mb at 12Z at 55.5N, 44.0W (COA). Eleven other low pressures.
July 2:
HWM analyzes an occluded, extratropical cyclone of at most 985 mb centered near 61N,
33.5W. HURDAT does not list this system on this day. Ship highlights: 15 kt SSW and
983 mb at 12Z at 61.0N, 33.7W (HWM). Land highlights: 35 kt ENE and 1004 mb at
12Z at 65.5N, 37.8W (HWM).
July 3:
HWM analyzes an occluded, extratropical cyclone of at most 990 mb centered near
62.5N, 28.5W. Ship highlights: 25 kt W and 990 mb at 12Z at 60.8N, 32.4W (HWM).
July 4:
HWM analyzes an occluded low of at most 995 mb centered near 64N, 24W. Land
highlights: 15 kt SSE and 993 mb at 12Z at 63.8N, 22.5W (HWM).
No changes were made to the timing of genesis of this system. Minor track changes were
made on all days of its existence as a tropical cyclone, except for no alterations on the
22nd. The previous track had the storm center just barely clipping Cape Hatteras, but the
new track is farther west, taking the storm along the mainland coast of North Carolina,
exiting at the north end of the Cape. Large alterations were made to the track on the 28th
and 30th during the extratropical phase of the system. The largest track change was made
to the position on the 30th when the position was moved about 2.5 degrees to the
southwest, as warranted by available observations from COADS and HWM. Regarding
the intensity, on the 20th, aircraft estimated 35 kt winds. Also on the 20th, Cozumel
recorded 1005 mb with 10 kt E at 18Z with the analyzed position of the tropical cyclone
being 80 nm southeast of Cozumel. At that time, Cozumel was just beginning to feel the
influence of the outer circulation of the small tropical cyclone. Thus it is likely that the
central pressure was at least a few millibars lower than 1005 mb, perhaps more. On the
21st at 12Z, Cozumel recorded 30 kt NW with 1005 mb while the estimated position was
50 nm northeast of the island. The data indicates that the central pressure was likely 1002
mb or less on both days. This corresponds to winds of at least 43 kt utilizing the Brown
et al. southern pressure-wind relationship. Intensity is boosted from 35 to 40 kt at 18Z on
the 20th and kept at 40 kt late on the 21st because wind information from aircraft did not
show winds higher than 40 kt on that day. It is important to note that the original
HURDAT had the intensity of this storm increasing from 55 kt at 12Z the 23rd to 100 kt
at 18Z the 23rd, which is a change of 45 kt in 6 hours. There is no data to suggest that the
TC was at hurricane strength until the afternoon of the 23rd, when there were two aircraft
visual estimates of 100 kt surface winds (micro). The next highest wind observation on
that day was 50 kt. There was a 997 mb pressure reported, but it is unclear whether that
997 mb pressure was reported at the same time as the 100 kt winds or was instead a
central pressure. These visual wind estimates are extremely uncertain and high biased for
major hurricane winds (Hagen et al. 2012). Furthermore, data from landfall, which
occurred only 12 hours later, does not indicate an intensity anywhere near major
hurricane strength. It is reasonable to assume that the 100 kt visual wind estimates which
then were placed into HURDAT are too high. Therefore, 85 kt is chosen at 18Z on the
23rd (previously 100 kt), which is analyzed to be the peak intensity of the hurricane. The
12Z intensity is boosted from 55 to 70 kt.
The hurricane made landfall around 08Z on the 24th, north of Tampa, FL around 28.6N,
82.7W. The system made landfall in a fairly data sparse portion of Florida, with lowest
peripheral pressure observed of 1002 mb in Jacksonville, (after passed over the
peninsula) and highest winds of 52 kt in Tampa. Based upon the modest impacts
observed, 70 kt is analyzed as the landfall intensity - retaining the system as a category 1
hurricane. This is slightly weaker (80 kt) than originally indicated in HURDAT for the
synoptic time intensity before landfall. Using the Brown et al. pressure-wind relationship
for N of 25N to back out the pressure, this suggests a central pressure at landfall of 982
mb for all systems and 984 mb for those cyclones that are weakening. Given the 985 mb
central pressure reported in Jarrell et al., this value is retained as the landfall pressure. (It
is worth noting that Ho et al. did not include this hurricane on their U.S. landfalling
hurricanes list, as their criteria was of less than 982 mb central pressure.) Employing the
Kaplan and DeMaria inland decay model, the intensity at 12Z yields a value of 52 kt,
while highest observed within 2 hours of synoptic time was 40 kt from a ship. 50 kt is
chosen for 12Z, which is a major intensity change downward from the 70 kt originally in
HURDAT. After oceanfall back to the Atlantic Ocean, the original HURDAT had the
system reintensifying back into a minimal hurricane. 57 kt ENE wind at Tybee Island
early on the 25th north of the system would support stronger winds near the center, so this
restrengthening was retained.
A second US landfall occurred around 01Z on the 26th near Cape Lookout, NC near
34.7N, 76.6W. Highest observed winds were 48 kt NW at 08Z at Cape Hatteras and
lowest pressure of 989 mb with 25 kt WNW winds at 06Z. This pressure suggests winds
of at least 61 kt from the north of 25N Brown et al. pressure-wind relationship and at
least 64 kt from the Landsea et al. north of 35N pressure-wind relationship. 65 kt is
analyzed as the intensity at the time of landfall and closest approach (06Z) to Cape
Hatteras. This is a significant increase from the original 50 and 45 kt, respectively, in
HURDAT. However, because the cyclone's track had it skirting the coast, the strongest
winds likely remained offshore. Highest estimated winds along the North Carolina coast
are estimated to be 60 kt - or just below hurricane force. This is consistent with the
assessment previously by MWR, Dunn and Miller, and Jarrell et al. that it was not a
hurricane at the coast of North Carolina. After moving past North Carolina, the system
again traversed the Atlantic Ocean. Two ship reports of 60 kt (with 991 mb pressure) and
65 kt (with 997 mb pressure) early on the 27th indicate that the system still retained
hurricane intensity on this date. Winds are boosted from 60 to 65 kt at 00Z. Early on the
27th, the system began transitioning to an extratropical cyclone and 06Z on the 27th is
now indicated as the time of transition, which is 24 hours earlier than indicated
previously in HURDAT based upon sufficient ship and coastal data. It is of note that
Nantucket, MA received 59 kt sustained winds at 0731Z on the 27th, after the system had
become extratropical. Hurricane-force winds as an extratropical cyclone were kept until
12Z on the 27th. The cyclone is analyzed to have produced a tropical storm impact in
Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, and Virginia. A significant addition is made to
the end of the storm during the extratropical phase. Available observations indicate that
the system could be tracked as a separate cyclone until 4 July, which adds an additional
three days to the HURDAT track.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
1945 Storm 2
32795 07/19/1945 M= 4 2 SNBR= 725 NOT NAMED XING=0 SSS=0
32800 07/19* 0 0 0 0*255 924 35 0*260 925 40 0*265 926 40 0*
32800 07/19* 0 0 0 0*257 900 30 0*260 908 30 0*263 915 30 0*
*** *** ** *** ** *** *** **
32805 07/20*270 928 45 0*275 931 45 0*279 934 45 0*282 939 45 0*
32805 07/20*266 922 35 0*268 928 35 0*270 934 35 0*273 939 35 0*
*** *** ** *** *** ** *** ** *** **
32810 07/21*282 948 45 0*281 951 40 0*278 957 40 0*274 965 35 0*
32810 07/21*276 944 35 0*278 949 35 0*278 954 35 0*276 958 35 0*
*** *** ** *** *** ** *** ** *** ***
32815 07/22*269 975 25 0*262 982 15 0* 0 0 0 0* 0 0 0 0*
32815 07/22*272 962 30 0*269 969 25 0* 0 0 0 0* 0 0 0 0*
*** *** ** *** **
32820 TS
U.S. Tropical Storms
7/21/12Z - No landfall. 35 kt tropical storm impact in Texas.
Major track changes but only minor intensity changes were implemented with this Gulf
of Mexico tropical storm. Evidence for these alterations comes from the Historical
Weather Map series, the COADS ships database, the Monthly Weather Review, and
NHC microfilm of synoptic weather maps.
July 18:
HWM analyzes a spot low near 24.5N, 91. HURDAT does not list a system on this day.
Microfilm shows a closed low of at most 1011 mb centered in the general vicinity of
26.7N, 90.4W. No gales or low pressures.
July 19:
HWM analyzes a closed low of at most 1010 mb centered near 25.7N, 93.1W. HURDAT
lists this as a 40 kt tropical storm at 26.0N, 92.5W. The MWR tracks of centers of
cyclones shows a position near 24N, 93W. The MWR post-season track map shows a
position near the HURDAT position. Microfilm shows a low of at most 1008 mb
centered well north of the HURDAT position near 28N, 93.3W. No gales or low
pressures. "This slight disturbance formed in the western Gulf of Mexico from a wave in
the easterlies, and, through reconnaissance flights, a complete circulation was verified
July 19" (MWR).
July 20:
HWM analyzes a low of at most 1010 mb centered near 27.6N, 92.1W. HURDAT lists
this as a 45 kt tropical storm at 27.9N, 93.4W. The MWR tracks of centers of cyclones
shows a 00Z position near 25.9N, 92.7W and a 12Z position near 27.6N, 92.5W. The
MWR post-season track map shows 00Z and 12Z positions near the HURDAT position.
Microfilm shows a broad low of at most 1011 mb centered in the general vicinity of
26.8N, 93.5W. 33 kt (max 5-min) with ~1014 mb at Port Arthur around ~00UTC
(OMR). "Pilot balloon reports from stations along the coast later indicated that the
circulation existed to at least 15,000 feet and probably extended to 20,000 feet. Despite
this deep circulation, the disturbance remained weak throughout its 3-day history, and it
is not likely that gales over 45 to 50 miles per hour were associated with it at the time of
its greatest development" (MWR).
July 21
HWM analyzes a spot low in a trough near 27N, 94W. HURDAT lists this as a 40 kt
tropical storm near 27.8N, 95.7W. The MWR tracks of centers of cyclones shows a 00Z
position near 28.2N, 93.6W and a 12Z position near 28.5N, 95W. The MWR post-season
track map shows a 00Z position near 28N, 94.3W and a 12Z position near the HURDAT
position. Microfilm shows a low of at most 1008 mb centered near 27.3N, 95.1W. No
gales or low pressures. "Occasional squalls and rough seas were encountered along the
coast from Grand Isle, La., to Port Aransas, Tex." (MWR).
July 22:
HWM analyzes a low of at most 1010 mb inland near 23.5N, 100W. HURDAT last lists
this system at 06Z as a 15 kt tropical depression at 26.2N, 98.2W. The MWR post-
season track map last shows this system at 00Z near 26.8N, 97.2W. No gales or low
pressures. "By the time the center moved inland, the storm had dissipated to such an
extent that only fresh winds and a few scattered squalls were reported" (MWR).
Genesis of this system was unchanged. The original track of this tropical cyclone is an
"n" shape between the 19th and 22nd. On the 19th, the track displays a more northward
motion, with a sharp turn to the west the 20th, southwest on the 21st, and south-southwest
on the 22nd. The revised track shows the storm starting farther east, with a slow west-
northwestward motion followed by a 30 degree turn to left (a west-southwestward
motion). The change at 06Z on the 19th at the initial point constitutes the only major
change to the track of the cyclone. The remainder of the track changes are minor
revisions. There are no available observations of gale force with this storm even though
these observations were apparently close to the center. Development of the cyclone into
a tropical storm is delayed 18 hours to 00Z on the 20th. This is because aircraft
observations on the 19th indicate a very weak circulation on that day - definitely below
tropical storm strength. Additionally, the 45 kt peak intensity is lowered to 35 kt on the
20th and 21st. The aircraft flight on the morning of the 20th failed to find any gale force
winds, although the winds were slightly stronger than on the 19th. Additionally, Port
Arthur recorded a maximum 5-min wind of 33 kts (with 1014 mb) around 00Z on the 20th
with the analyzed position of the TX about 215 nm SSE of Port Arthur. Therefore, the
cyclone is kept as a tropical storm and it is analyzed that the system impacted Texas with
tropical storm force sustained winds. In agreement with MWR Tracks of Lows, the
revised HURDAT shows the cyclone dissipating before 12Z on the 22nd, just before
landfall in Texas would have occurred.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
1945 Storm 3
32825 08/01/1945 M= 4 3 SNBR= 726 NOT NAMED XING=0 SSS=0
32825 08/02/1945 M= 3 3 SNBR= 726 NOT NAMED XING=0 SSS=0
** *
(The 1st is removed from HURDAT.)
32830 08/01* 0 0 0 0*121 563 35 0*127 572 35 0*131 577 35 0*
32835 08/02*136 583 40 0*141 589 40 0*145 597 40 0*150 607 45 0*
32835 08/02*136 583 35 0*141 589 40 0*145 597 40 0*150 607 45 0*
**
32840 08/03*156 620 45 0*161 633 50 0*166 647 50 0*169 662 50 0*
32845 08/04*172 675 50 0*176 687 45 0*180 698 35 0*184 709 25 0*
32845 08/04*172 675 50 0*176 687 50 0*181 700 50 0*187 713 30 0*
** *** *** ** *** *** **
32850 TS
Minor track and intensity changes are implemented with this tropical storm. Evidence for
these alterations comes from the Historical Weather Map series, the COADS ships
database, the Monthly Weather Review, and NHC microfilm of synoptic weather maps.
July 31:
HWM analyzes a low, not closed, in a trough of low pressure near 10N, 54.5W.
HURDAT does not list this system on this day. No gales or low pressures.
August 1:
HWM analyzes a closed low of at most 1010 mb centered near 12.2N, 57.3W. HURDAT
lists this as a 35 kt tropical storm at 12.7N, 57.2W. Aircraft highlights: 40 kt E at 1545Z
at 15.0N, 54.9W (micro). Two other aircraft gales. "The disturbance appeared east of
the Lesser Antilles on August 1" (MWR).
August 2:
HWM analyzes a low of at most 1010 mb centered near 13.5N, 60.8W. HURDAT lists
this as a 40 kt tropical storm at 14.5N, 59.7W. The MWR post-season track map shows a
position near 14.7N, 59.7W. Microfilm shows a low of at most 1008 mb centered near
14.8N, 59.3W. Aircraft highlights: 40 kt E at 18Z at 15.5N, 58.5W (micro). One other
gale. "...moved west-northwestward between the islands of Guadeloupe and Dominica
on the 2nd..." (MWR).
August 3:
HWM analyzes a low of at most 1010 mb centered near 16.7N, 64.8W. HURDAT lists
this as a 50 kt tropical storm at 16.6N, 64.7W. The MWR post-season track map shows a
00Z position near 15.8N, 62.5W and a 12Z position near 16.5N, 65.2W. Microfilm
shows a low of at most 1005 mb near 16.5N, 65W. No gales or low pressures. "...and
during the 3rd passed south of Puerto Rico." (MWR).
August 4:
HWM analyzes a low of at most 1010 mb centered near 18N, 69.5W. HURDAT lists this
as a 35 kt tropical storm at 18.0N, 69.8W. The MWR post-season track map shows a
00Z position near 17.5N, 67.8W and a 12Z position near 18.2N, 69.5W. Microfilm
shows a low of at most 1005 mb centered near 18.6N, 69.7W. No gales or low pressures.
"It crossed the southern coast line of the Dominican Republic west of Ciudad Trujillo on
the 4th and dissipated as it moved inland. No winds over Beaufort force 9 (47 to 54 mph)
accompanied the storm at any stage" (MWR).
August 5: HWM analyzes an open low near 18N 74W over Haiti. HURDAT no longer
lists this system. No gales or low pressures.
HURDAT started this storm at 06Z on 1 August. In the microfilm maps, the solid wind
vectors are flight level winds, while the dashed wind vectors are surface wind estimates.
While the system had a closed circulation at 7,000 to 10,000 ft above the ocean, at the
surface the system was an open wave on the 11th. The system appears to have become
closed around 00Z on the 2nd, which is now when genesis is indicated. The cyclone at
that time was accompanied by 35 kt winds, so the system is begun as a tropical storm.
The only track changes were made to the last two points, at 12 and 18Z on the 4th. The
position is shifted slightly to the northwest, close to and inland over Hispaniola,
respectively. Regarding the intensity, limited data from the Lesser Antilles indicates that
the central pressure was likely below 1005 mb when the cyclone passed through between
18Z on the 2nd and 00Z on the 3rd. No change is made to the 45 kt winds listed in
HURDAT at the time. Peak winds of 50 kt on the 3rd and 4th are unchanged. The largest
intensity change was 10 kt stronger, at 12Z on the 4th. Santo Domingo received observed
winds of at least 30 kt, and that city may have been close to the RMW around 14Z, but
this is uncertain. The storm was still over water at this time, so a continuity of 50 kt up
until landfall around 14Z on the 4th is employed instead of 35 kt, as indicated originally in
HURDAT. Dissipation after 18Z on the 4th is unchanged from that in HURDAT
originally, after the system made landfall. The remnants of the cyclone were in the
vicinity of eastern Cuba on the 5th, but did not appear to have a closed circulation any
longer.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
1945 Storm 4
32855 08/17/1945 M= 5 4 SNBR= 727 NOT NAMED XING=0 SSS=0
32860 08/17* 0 0 0 0* 0 0 0 0* 0 0 0 0*174 553 35 0*
32860 08/17* 0 0 0 0* 0 0 0 0* 0 0 0 0*174 535 35 0*
***
32865 08/18*177 564 45 0*179 575 50 0*182 585 55 0*185 596 60 0*
32865 08/18*177 549 45 0*179 564 55 0*182 580 60 0*185 597 60 0*
*** *** ** *** ** ***
32870 08/19*189 608 60 0*194 624 55 0*200 642 50 0*205 657 50 0*
32870 08/19*188 615 60 0*192 633 55 0*196 650 50 0*201 667 50 0*
*** *** *** *** *** *** *** ***
32875 08/20*210 672 45 0*215 688 40 0*219 705 40 0*225 723 35 0*
32875 08/20*206 683 45 0*211 699 40 0*214 718 40 0*216 738 35 0*
*** *** *** *** *** *** *** ***
32880 08/21*231 743 30 0*236 760 25 0* 0 0 0 0* 0 0 0 0*
32880 08/21*218 756 30 0*220 772 25 0* 0 0 0 0* 0 0 0 0*
*** *** *** ***
32885 TS
Minor track changes and minor intensity changes were implemented with this storm.
Evidence for these alterations comes from the Historical Weather Map series, the
COADS ships database, the Monthly Weather Review, and NHC microfilm of synoptic
weather maps.
August 17:
HWM analyzes a low, not closed, in a trough of low pressure near 15N, 54.5W.
HURDAT first lists this system at 18Z as a 35 kt tropical storm at 17.4N, 55.3W. No
gales or low pressures. "When first detected by aircraft reconnaissance on August 17,
this storm was centered near latitude 17-18 N, longitude 53-54 W, and showed a
circulation with highest winds of Beaufort force 7 to 8 (32 to 54 mph)" (MWR).
August 18:
HWM analyzes a low, not closed, in a trough of low pressure near 18N, 57.5W.
HURDAT lists this as a 55 kt tropical storm at 18.2N, 58.5W. The MWR post-season
track map shows a position near 18N, 58W. Microfilm shows a low of at most 999 mb
centered near 18.5N, 58.5W. Aircraft highlights: 65 kt E at 1330Z at 19.3N, 58.2W
(micro). Five other aircraft gales. "It reached its greatest development on August 18,
when reconnaissance reported winds of 65 knots in the vicinity of latitude 19N, longitude
61W. From this point, it began to lose intensity as it continued on a west-northwest
course" (MWR).
August 19:
HWM analyzes a low, not closed, in a trough of low pressure near 21N, 64.5W.
HURDAT lists this as a 50 kt tropical storm at 20N, 64.2W. The MWR post-season track
map shows a 00Z position near 19N, 61.4W and a 12Z position near 19.8N, 64.5W.
Microfilm shows a low of at most 1005 mb near 20N, 65W. Aircraft highlights: 40 kt E
at 1345Z at 21.4N, 64.5W (micro). Two other gales.
August 20:
HWM analyzes a closed low of at most 1010 mb near 20.8N, 70.2W. HURDAT lists this
as a 40 kt tropical storm at 21.9N, 70.5W. The MWR post-season track map shows a
00Z position near 21N, 67.7W and a 12Z position near 22N, 71.5W. Microfilm shows a
low of at most 1011 mb centered near 21.4N, 71.1W. Aircraft highlights: 35 kt E at
2030Z at 23.1N, 72.8W (micro). One other gale. "By the morning of the 20th, when the
center reached the vicinity of Turks Island, the highest winds were only 35 to 40 mph"
(MWR).
August 21:
HWM does not analyze a closed low, in fact it only analyzes a weak trough. HURDAT
last lists this system at 6Z as a 25 kt tropical depression at 23.6N, 76.0W. The MWR
post-season track map last shows this at 00Z near 22.7N, 74.7W. Microfilm also just
analyzes a weak trough. No gales or low pressures. "Dissipation took place over the
ocean between Cuba and the Bahama Islands during the night of August 20-21" (MWR).
No changes were made to the genesis of this cyclone. Throughout the lifetime of this
system, the track had minor adjustments made to it. On the 19th through the 21st, the new
track is to the south and west of the HURDAT track. These changes were made mostly
based on observations from microfilm and HWM. The peak intensity of 60 kt is
unchanged. Although aircraft estimated surface winds of 65 kt at one observation point
on the 18th, this alone is not enough evidence to justify changing this from a tropical
storm to a hurricane given the rudimentary methods for estimating wind speeds from
reconnaissance during the mid-1940s. However, it is possible that the system briefly
became a hurricane. If so, a reasonable analog for this system is Hurricane Debby from
2000. Weakening in accordance with HURDAT follows beginning on the 19th with no
further changes because there are no additional wind speed observations higher than the
HURDAT intensity. No changes were made to the dissipation of this cyclone.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
1945 Storm 5
32130 08/24/1945 M= 6 5 SNBR= 712 NOT NAMED XING=1 SSS=2
32130 08/24/1945 M= 6 5 SNBR= 712 NOT NAMED XING=1 SSS=3
*
32135 08/24* 0 0 0 0*194 940 60 0*209 947 60 0*216 952 65 0*
32135 08/24*205 944 40 0*213 947 45 0*220 950 50 0*226 953 55 0*
*** *** ** *** *** ** *** *** ** *** *** **
32140 08/25*224 957 70 0*234 961 75 0*243 964 80 0*249 966 85 0*
32140 08/25*233 956 60 0*240 958 70 0*247 960 80 0*253 962 85 0*
*** *** ** *** *** ** *** *** *** ***
32145 08/26*254 967 90 0*260 968 95 0*266 968 100 0*270 968 105 0*
32145 08/26*259 964 90 0*265 966 95 0*270 968 100 0*273 969 100 0*
*** *** *** *** *** *** *** ***
32150 08/27*273 968 110 0*278 965 115 0*282 962 115 963*286 961 120 966*
32150 08/27*275 970 100 0*278 970 100 0*282 967 100 963*286 963 90 966*
*** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** **
32155 08/28*291 960 120 968*295 960 65 980*299 961 50 987*306 964 40 993*
32155 08/28*289 961 75 0*294 960 65 980*299 961 50 987*305 963 40 993*
*** *** ** *** *** *** ***
32160 08/29*310 966 35 998*315 971 30 1002*318 975 25 1006*321 979 20 1009*
32165 HRBTX2
32165 HRATX1BTX3CTX1
************
U.S. Landfall: 8/27/1945 ~12 UTC - 28.2N, 96.7W - 10 nm RMW - 963 mb - 100 kt -
1010 mb OCI - 150 nm ROCI
Minor changes to the track and major changes to the intensity shown in McAdie et al.
(2009). Evidence for these alterations comes from the Historical Weather Map series,
Monthly Weather Review, daily Surface Weather Observations from NCDC, U.S.
Weather Bureau six hourly maps available via microfilm at NHC, the Daily Weather Map
series, an unpublished U.S. Engineer Office report, the COADS ship database, Connor
(1956), Dunn and Miller (1960), Schwerdt et al. (1979), Ho et al. (1987), and Jarrell et al.
(1992).
August 23:
HWM indicates an open low near 27N, 95W. HURDAT does not start this system until
06Z on the 24th. The MWR Tracks of the Centers of Cyclones does not begin this system
until 12Z on the 24th. No gales or low pressures.
August 24:
HWM indicates a closed low of at most 1010mb near 25N, 95W. HURDAT lists this as
a Tropical Storm at 20.9N, 94.7W at 12 UTC. The MWR Tracks of N. Atlantic
Hurricanes and Tropical Disturbances showed a center at 21.8N, 94.9W (a.m.) and at
23.2, 95.5W (p.m.). Ship highlight: No gales or low pressures. Station highlight: No gales
or low pressures. Aircraft highlight: 50kt at 21N, 93W at 1530 UTC (USWB). "The
storm formed in an area of squalls which had persisted for several days over the Gulf of
Campeche, near latitude 21.5N, longitude 95W. It rapidly developed into a hurricane
during the morning of August 24 and began a northward movement at a rate of 8 to 10
mph. This rate of forward movement continued during the 24th and the 25th" (MWR).
August 25:
HWM indicates a storm with a center at approximately 26N, 96W. HURDAT lists this as
a Category 1 hurricane at 24.3N, 96.4W at 12 UTC. The MWR Tracks of N. Atlantic
Hurricanes and Tropical Disturbances showed a center at 24.8N, 96W (a.m.) and at
25.9N, 97W (p.m.). Ship highlight: 35 kt E with pressure of 1011mb at 24N, 92W at
0630 UTC (USWB). Station highlight: 39 kt NNE and 1006 mb at Port Isabel at 1830
UTC (USWB). Aircraft highlight: 75-80 kt NW at 25N, 96.3W at 1140 UTC (USWB).
August 26:
HWM indicates a storm with a center at approximately 26.5N, 97W. HURDAT lists this
as a Category 3 hurricane at 26.6N, 96.8W at 12 UTC. The MWR Tracks of N. Atlantic
Hurricanes and Tropical Disturbances showed a center at 27N, 96.5W (a.m.) and at
28.3N, 96W (p.m.) Ship highlight: No gales or low pressures. Station highlight: 72 kt
NNE with pressure at 995mb at Corpus Christi at 2200 UTC (SWO). Aircraft highlight:
43 kt SE at 27N, 96.8W at 1745 UTC (USWB). "As the storm neared the coast on the
26th, the speed of translation dropped to about 5 mph, a rate which was maintained until
the center moved inland near Port Aransas" (MWR). "Estm. position storm at 25.7 96.4
intensity 105 mph" at 0030 UTC (USWB).
August 27:
HWM indicates a closed low of at most 1005mb near 28N, 97W. HURDAT lists this as
a Category 4 hurricane at 28.2N, 96.2W at 12 UTC. The MWR Tracks of N. Atlantic
Hurricanes and Tropical Disturbances showed a center at 28.9N, 96.5W (a.m.) and at
29.9N, 96.3W (p.m.) Ship highlight: No gales or low pressures. Station highlight: 967 mb
(possible central pressure?) at Camp Hulen, Palacios at 2000 UTC (SWO); 91 kt E-W at
1830-2030 UTC ("Anemometer cups blown away by wind registering 105 miles per
hour", likely a gust) and 968 mb pressure (peripheral) at 16 UTC at Port O'Connor
(MWR, DWM); 983 mb between 03-05 UTC at Port Aransas (DWM). Aircraft highlight:
48 kt SSE at 27.3N, 95.9W at 1400 UTC (USWB). "Winds accompanying the storm were
estimated as high as 135 miles per hour at Seadrift, Port O'Connor, and Port Lavaca... At
[Port Aransas] a 20-minute lull in the wind between 1 a.m. and 2 a.m. on the 27th
indicated passage of the calm eye of the storm. On the 27th the center also passed a short
distance south of Seadrift, Tex., at about 10 a.m., and slightly north of Port O'Connor
about 11 a.m. Neither place experienced a calm, although they are only 19 miles apart"
(MWR). "Also, the lowest reliable barometer reading was recorded at Camp Hulen,
Palacios, Tex., on August 27 about 3 p.m. It was 28.57 inches (967.5 mb), only 0.02 inch
higher than the low reported for Galveston in the disastrous hurricane of September 8,
1900" (MWR). "Three deaths were attributed directly to the hurricane: two men were
drowned at Port Isabel when their small boat crashed into the jetties, and one person was
killed about eight miles north-northeast of Houston in a small tornado that developed in
the storm circulation on August 27" (MWR). "Tropical Cyclones in Texas - Aug. 26-27 -
Middle Coast - Extreme [Category 4 or 5] - 3 killed - $20,133,000 in damage" (Dunn and
Miller). "Aug. 27 - 968 mb central pressure - 18 nmi RMW - 4 kt forward speed -
landfall position 28.5N 96.2W" (Ho et al.). "1005 mb environmental pressure - 80 kt
maximum sustained surface wind at landfall" (Schwerdt et al.). "TX - Category 2 -
Central coast - 967 mb central pressure at landfall" (Jarrell et al.). "Center crossed coast
near Palacios, 967 mb minimum central pressure" (Connor). "Reconnaissance flights by
military planes into the vicinity of the hurricane while it was in the Gulf of Mexico
greatly aided in determining the position and future movements of the storm. Without
the information obtained from these flights, it would have been difficult if not impossible
to issue advisories as accurately and so far in advance as was the case with this storm.
Reconnaissance pilots located the storm in the Bay of Campeche and determined its
dangerous character well before these facts would have been known otherwise" (Daily
Weather Map series). "[The hurricane] followed the Texas coastline for nearly 100 miles
before it passed inland 5 or 6 miles west of Port Aransas on the morning of August 27"
(U.S. Engineer Office).
August 28:
HWM indicates a small low near 29N, 96W. HURDAT lists this as a Tropical Storm at
29.9N, 96.1W at 12 UTC. The MWR Tracks of N. Atlantic Hurricanes and Tropical
Disturbances showed a center at 31N, 97W (a.m.) and at 31.3N, 97.5W (p.m.). Ship
highlight: No gales or low pressures. Station highlight: 976mb at Bay City between 3 and
4 UTC (MWR). Aircraft highlight: No gales or low pressures. "Slow progression
accounted for excessive precipitation along the coast and for a considerable distance
inland. At Houston, for instance, 9.39 inches fell in a 6-hour period ending at 2:30 a.m.,
August 28. Rainfall along the coast, estimated as high as 30 inches, added to the flooding
and damage caused by the wind-impounded waters of the Gulf" (MWR). "The storm
decreased slightly in intensity as it moved inland, but winds of hurricane force were still
reported over a small area near the center early on the 28th" (Daily Map Series).
August 29:
HWM indicates a closed low at approximately 31N, 98W. HURDAT lists this as a
Tropical Depression at 31.8N, 97.5W at 12 UTC. The MWR Tracks of N. Atlantic
Hurricanes and Tropical Disturbances showed a center 32N, 98.5W (a.m.) and at 32.5N,
99W (p.m.). Ship highlight: No gales or low pressures. Station highlight: No gales or low
pressures. Aircraft highlight: No gales or low pressures. "Continuing a northeastward
movement parallel to the coast, the storm began to recurve toward the northwest as it
passed west of Matagorda and dissipated in the interior of Texas on the 29th" (MWR).
Genesis begun six hours earlier (at 00 UTC on the 24th) to account for a well-developed
vortex by the time aircraft reconnaissance reached the system around 14 UTC on the
24th. This change also corrects for an unrealistically abrupt movement in the system's
first six hours and for a more gradual spin-up than starting the system at 60 kt. An
aircraft reconnaissance mission on the 23rd indicated that the system was an open trough.
Small track changes are introduced for all but the 29th based upon aircraft reconnaissance
and land station data. (Due to World War II, few ship observations were available
operationally or from COADS.) Intensity originally was quickly brought up from a
tropical storm on the 24th, to a Category 1 on the 25th, to a Category 3 on the 26th, to a
Category 4 on the 27th until landfall. Aircraft observations - which were relying upon
estimates of wind from visual assessments of the wind effects on the ocean - did suggest
that hurricane force was reached on the 25th. However, the aircraft reconnaissance did
not provide any central pressure readings, or any confirmation of Category 3 or 4 winds.
The most complete analysis of its intensity was at landfall, which was then used to adjust
the maximum winds during the preceding day. Intensity is unaltered from that shown in
HURDAT late on the 25th and on the 26th, as data was quite sparse and the values shown
appear to be reasonable.
Port Aransas was apparently inside the RMW early on 27 August with a pressure of 983
mb. A 20 min lull occurred at that city between 06-07Z, though the Daily Weather Map
listed 03-05Z as the time of the 983 mb lowest pressure. Perhaps because of this
apparent disagreement, the MWR table did not list a time for the lowest pressure. One
possibility is that a lower pressure occurred during the lull during 06-07Z, though this
value was not recorded. Because of this uncertainty, the 983 mb pressure value is not
considered a central pressure and is not added into HURDAT. It is noted that the U.S.
Engineer Office indicated that the center passed west of Port Aransas. Unfortunately,
there is no wind data from Port Aransas. The closest wind observations early on the 27th
were from Corpus Christi which clearly indicated a track well to the east of that location,
as winds shifted from NE to NW during the day. The track of the hurricane is moved
considerably closer to the coast, just offshore (~5 nm) east of Port Aransas at 06Z. The
hurricane made landfall at 28.2N 96.7W south of Seadrift and southwest of Port
O'Connor, Texas around 12 UTC on the 27th. Despite numerous reports of estimated
(visually) wind gusts of up to about 120 kt, the highest observed winds were 91 kt at Port
O'Connor (with the anemometer cups blowing away at that point with no further
measurements available). A possible central pressure of 967 mb was recorded at Palacios
around 20 UTC, about four hours after landfall. Utilizing the Ho (1987) inland pressure
decay model, this suggests a central pressure of 963 mb using the Florida peninsula
version (to account for the hurricane primarily passing over Matagorda Bay after making
initial landfall on the Texas barrier islands. 963 mb is slightly lower than the Ho et al.
and Jarrell et al. estimate of 967 mb, which essentially assumed that the Palacios reading
was a landfall value. 963 mb suggests winds of 92 kt from the Brown et al. north of 25N
pressure-wind relationship and 96 kt for the subset of intensifying systems. The center
apparently passed between Seadrift and Port O'Connor with neither station reporting a
calm. Seadrift and Port O'Connor are 17 nm apart, and if the reported lack of calm is
correct the eye diameter was smaller than that. In turn, that means the 18 nm RMW from
Ho et al. is substantially too large. An RMW of 10 nm is now analyzed. Given the slow
speed of motion for this system at landfall (about 5 kt) and but the quite small RMW size
(10 nm versus 20 nm climatologically from Vickery et al. 2000), 100 kt is chosen for the
maximum sustained winds at landfall. Category 3 at landfall along the central Texas
coast is an upgrade from the Jarrell et al. Category 2 assessment, but requires a reduction
in winds on the 26th and 27th. Due to observed hurricane conditions along a large stretch
of the coast because of the near-parallel track, Category 1 impacts are also included for
south Texas coast (south of Corpus Christi) and the north Texas coast (north of
Matagorda Bay). Peak observed winds after landfall were 91+ kt (likely a gust) at 18
UTC on the 27th, 39 kt at 00 UTC on the 28th, 35 kt at 06 UTC, and below gale force at
12 UTC. Application of the Kaplan and DeMaria (1995) inland decay model suggests
winds of 69 kt, 53 kt, 40 kt, and 31 kt, accordingly. Because of the transit of the system
over a partial water terrain for the first several hours after landfall, winds are chosen
above the model, though at 00 UTC the winds chosen are substantially lower than
originally in HURDAT. Additionally, keeping the system hurricane force through 06
UTC on the 28th agrees with the assessment described in the Daily Map Series. No
changes were made to the decay phase of the system. Unlike most hurricanes of its era,
estimates had already been provided of the central pressure from just before landfall up
until final dissipation. All of these value looked reasonable (including the pre-landfall
one which agreed exactly with our landfall central pressure), except for 00 UTC on the
28th which appears to be a few millibars too low.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
1945 Storm 6
32930 08/29/1945 M= 4 6 SNBR= 729 NOT NAMED XING=0 SSS=0
32935 08/29* 0 0 0 0*130 826 35 0*142 818 35 0*148 815 40 0*
32935 08/29* 0 0 0 0*136 823 35 0*142 818 35 0*148 815 40 0*
*** ***
32940 08/30*155 813 40 0*164 815 45 0*172 822 50 0*176 832 50 0*
32945 08/31*177 844 50 0*178 859 45 0*177 873 40 0*174 886 35 993*
32945 08/31*177 844 55 0*178 856 55 0*177 869 60 0*174 882 60 990*
** *** ** *** ** *** ** ***
32950 09/01*172 894 25 0*167 906 20 0* 0 0 0 0* 0 0 0 0*
32950 09/01*172 894 40 0*171 904 30 0*170 913 25 0*170 920 25 0*
** *** *** ** *** *** ** *** *** **
32955 TS
Minor track changes and major intensity changes are introduced for this strong tropical
storm that made a landfall at Belize City, Belize. Evidence for these alterations comes
from the Historical Weather Map series, the COADS ships database, the Monthly
Weather Review, and NHC microfilm of synoptic weather maps.
August 29:
HWM analyzes a low of at most 1010 mb centered near 14N, 82W. HURDAT lists this
as a 35 kt tropical storm at 14.2N, 81.8W. No gales or low pressures.
August 30:
HWM analyzes a low, not closed, in a trough near 16.8N, 82.3W. HURDAT lists this as
a 50 kt tropical storm at 17.2N, 82.2W. The MWR post-season track map shows a
position near 17.4N, 82.2W. Microfilm, although showing a closed low at 00Z, does not
show a closed low, but a trough instead. No gales or low pressures. "This disturbance
formed in the Caribbean Sea east of Belize on the 30th and moved westward into British
Honduras" (MWR).
August 31:
HWM does not analyze a low, but does analyze a strong trough that is almost closed off.
HURDAT lists this as a 40 kt tropical storm at 17.7N, 87.3W. The MWR post-season
track map shows a 00Z position near 17.8N, 84.2W and a 12Z position near 18N, 87.3W.
Microfilm shows a low of at most 996 mb centered near 17.7N, 86.8W. Ship highlights:
40 kt E at 7Z at 20.0N, 84.5W (micro). Land highlights: Calm and 990 mb at Belize City
(17.4N, 88.2W) around 1730 UTC (MWR); 993 mb at 1930Z at Belize City (MWR).
Aircraft highlights: 50 kt E at 1530Z at 17.7N, 87.4W (micro). Three other gales.
"Belize, over which the center passed on the 31st, reported an almost complete calm at
12:30 pm and a low pressure of 29.33 inches (993 mb) at 2:30 pm. Winds of hurricane
force did not accompany the storm at the surface, but it is believed that velocities of 60
mph marked its entire course. Actual wind damage was slight, but excessive rains and
high tides resulted in flooding portions of Belize 2 to 3 feet...Maximum wind velocity
reported - 60 miles per hour reported from airplane east of Belize. Lowest pressure
reported - 989.3 millibars (29.23 inches) at Belize" (MWR).
September 1:
HWM analyzes a low, not closed, located in a trough near 18N, 88.5W. HURDAT last
lists this system at 6Z as a 20 kt tropical depression at 16.7N, 90.6W. The MWR post-
season track map last shows this system at 00Z near 17.4N, 89.5W. Microfilm shows a
low of at most 1005 mb centered in the general vicinity of 17.3N, 90.7W. No gales or
low pressures. Regarding the storm tide... "Disturbance inland. Water over sea wall at
Belize City. Three feet of water in the street" (Sep 01 0030Z Microfilm).
There were no changes made to the genesis of this system. The first position on the 29th
was adjusted to provide a more realistic initial motion. The other track changes
introduced for the 31st and 1st were near and after the time of landfall. On the 31st, the
12Z and 18Z positions are shifted about half a degree to the east based on available
observations from HWM and microfilm. The system made landfall around 18Z on the
31st near Belize City. There were observations of 50 kt at the surface from aircraft just
prior to landfall, but a 990 mb central pressure was recorded at Belize City as the center
passed overhead. 990 mb gives 64 kt from the Brown south of 25N pressure-wind
relationship. The size and speed of the storm are about average. 60 kt is chosen since
damage reports indicate that wind damage was slight and the MWR text suggests that
winds of hurricane force did not accompany this storm at the surface. However, this
system may have been a minimal hurricane. Major intensity changes were thus made at
these 12 and 18Z times on the 31st. The 12Z intensity is changes from 40 kt to 60 kt, and
the 18Z intensity is changed from 35 kt to 60 kt. A run of the Kaplan-DeMaria inland
decay model suggests winds of 42 kt for 00Z on the 1st. 40 kt (up from 25 kt originally)
is indicated at this point. Dissipation of the system is delayed 12 hours to 00Z on the 2nd,
as observations indicate that a closed circulation existed longer than originally listed.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
1945 Storm 7
32960 09/03/1945 M= 4 7 SNBR= 730 NOT NAMED XING=1 SSS=0
32965 09/03* 0 0 0 0* 0 0 0 0* 0 0 0 0*200 840 35 0*
32965 09/03* 0 0 0 0* 0 0 0 0* 0 0 0 0*210 846 30 0*
*** *** **
32970 09/04*216 833 35 0*234 825 35 0*247 821 35 0*257 821 35 0*
32970 09/04*221 838 30 0*232 828 30 0*244 821 35 0*255 820 35 0*
*** *** ** *** *** ** *** *** *** **
32975 09/05*267 823 35 0*279 838 35 0*287 854 30 0*291 869 30 0*
32975 09/05*265 821 35 0*275 838 35 0*285 860 30 0*293 875 30 0*
*** *** *** *** *** *** ***
32980 09/06*295 883 30 0*303 896 25 0*311 908 20 0*319 919 15 0*
32980 09/06*300 888 30 0*307 898 25 0*313 908 25 0*319 919 20 0*
*** *** *** *** *** ** **
32985 TS
U.S. Landfall:
9/5/1945 - 0000Z - 26.5N 82.1W - 35 kt
Minor track changes and minor intensity changes are implemented with this minimal
tropical storm. Evidence for these alterations comes from the Historical Weather Map
series, the COADS ships database, the Monthly Weather Review, the Original Monthly
Records from NCDC, NHC microfilm of synoptic weather maps, and Perez et al. (2000).
September 2:
HWM analyzes a tiny closed low of at most 1010 mb near 15N, 82.5W. HWM also
analyzes a trough of low pressure extending from north of Honduras southward and
westward into the east Pacific. HURDAT does not list a system on this day. Microfilm
does not plot a closed low. No gales or low pressures (the one ship that reports low
pressures is biased 4 to 5 mb too low).
September 3:
HWM analyzes a low of at most 1010 mb centered near 19.5N, 84.1W. HURDAT first
lists this system at 18Z as a 35 kt tropical storm at 20.0N, 84.0W. The MWR tracks for
centers of cyclones has a 12Z position near 19N, 84W. Microfilm shows a very broad
low with a 1011 mb contour closed off over the western Caribbean and Yucatan
Peninsula. No gales or low pressures.
September 4:
HWM analyzes a large, elongated low of at most 1010 mb with the "L" plotted near
24.6N, 83.1W. HURDAT lists this as a 35 kt tropical storm at 24.7N, 82.1W. The MWR
tracks for centers of cyclones has a 00Z position near 21.6N, 82.9W and a 12Z position
near 24.2N, 82W. The MWR post-season track map shows a 00Z position near 21.7N,
83.9W and a 12Z position near the HWM position. Microfilm shows a position near the
HURDAT position. Highlights: 45 kt S (fastest mile/elevated at 68 m) at Miami at
1702Z (WB); 35 kt S and 1009 mb at 18Z near Marathon, FL (micro); 40 kt S (elevated -
likely Alligator Reef) and 1010 mb at 18Z near Islamorada, FL (micro); 35 kt SE and
1010 mb at 18Z at 25.1N, 80.2W (micro); 34 kt S (max 5-min wind/elevated) at Miami at
1813Z (WB). "A slight disturbance moved northward out of the Caribbean Sea, across
western Cuba and into the Florida Peninsula near Fort Myers during September 3-4"
(MWR). This system is not listed as a tropical storm strike for Cuba (Perez).
September 5:
HWM analyzes a broad low of at most 1010 mb in the general vicinity of 29N, 86.5W,
with the SW end of a SW-NE warm front almost touching the NE side of the 1010 mb
isobar. HURDAT lists this as a 30 kt tropical depression at 28.7N, 85.4W. The MWR
tracks for centers of cyclones shows a 00Z position near 26.7N, 82.3W and a 12Z
position near 28N, 86W. The MWR post-season track map shows its last point at 00Z
with a position near 26.4N, 82.8W. Microfilm shows a broad closed low of at most 1008
mb in the general vicinity of 28N, 88W. Land highlights: 35 kt SE and 1009 mb at 00Z
at 28.9N, 80.8W (micro). "The lowest reported pressure (for this storm) was 29.77
inches, and the circulation about the center was not strong. However, squalls of tropical
character, with winds reaching 40 miles per hour and gusts to 50 miles per hour,
prevailed among the Keys and along the southeast Florida coast northward beyond
Miami. The only damage reported was to small boats in Miami harbors" (MWR).
September 6:
HWM analyzes a low of at most 1010 mb centered near 31.2N, 90.2W. HURDAT lists
this as a 20 kt tropical depression at 31.1N, 90.8W. The MWR tracks for centers of
cyclones shows a 00Z position near 29N, 88.2W and a 12Z position near 31.5N, 90.3W
with a 1010 mb pressure. Microfilm shows a low of at most 1010 mb centered near
31.5N, 90.2W. No gales or low pressures.
No changes are made to the time of genesis, 18Z on the 3rd. The position at 18Z on the
3rd was adjusted about a degree to the northwest. The position adjustments are very
minor around southern Florida as changes of a few tenths of a degree were made. Later
in the Gulf of Mexico, the track is shifted to the left of the HURDAT track, but then near
landfall at the northern Gulf Coast, the track is very similar to the HURDAT track again.
There were no intensity changes larger than a 5 kt change. The system is now begun as a
tropical depression with tropical storm intensity achieved at 12Z on the 4th, north of
Cuba. This is consistent with Perez et al.'s assessment of the system being a tropical
depression over Cuba. There was an observation on microfilm of a 40 kt wind near or at
Islamorada, FL at 18Z on the 4th, but this observation is an elevated observation from
Alligator Reef Lighthouse. The peak lifetime intensity of 35 kt is unchanged from
HURDAT originally. The cyclone made a brief landfall in southwestern Florida at 00Z
on the 5th at 26.5N, 82.1W near Sanibel Island with maximum winds of 35 kt. Hourly
observations from the Fort Myers (26.6N 81.8W) airport show that the center did not go
east of that location. However, at 00Z a ship reported north winds at 15 kt (20 mph) at a
location of 26.5N 82.3W - only ~10 nm offshore. This is the main reason for showing a
landfall for this minimal tropical storm in southwest Florida, which is consistent with the
original HURDAT. The system made a second landfall early on the 6th near the border of
Mississippi and Louisiana as a tropical depression, which is unchanged in intensity from
originally indicated. No change is made to the dissipation stage of this cyclone.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
1945 Storm 8
32990 09/10/1945 M= 3 8 SNBR= 731 NOT NAMED XING=0 SSS=0
32990 09/09/1945 M= 4 8 SNBR= 731 NOT NAMED XING=0 SSS=0
** *
(The 9th is new to HURDAT.)
32992 09/09* 0 0 0 0* 0 0 0 0*164 583 45 0*174 592 45 1009*
32995 09/10*183 603 35 0*194 610 45 0*204 616 50 0*219 632 50 0*
32995 09/10*183 600 45 0*191 608 45 0*201 618 50 0*213 632 50 0*
*** ** *** *** *** *** ***
33000 09/11*236 649 50 0*246 655 50 0*258 661 45 0*275 667 45 0*
33000 09/11*226 649 50 0*240 661 50 0*255 670 45 0*270 673 45 0*
*** *** *** *** *** *** ***
33005 09/12*294 671 40 0*313 671 40 0*332 671 35 0*351 667 30 0*
33005 09/12*286 674 40 0*303 673 40 0*322 671 35 0*345 667 30 0*
*** *** *** *** *** ****
33010 TS
Minor track changes and minor intensity changes are introduced for this tropical storm
that stayed out over the open waters of the Atlantic. Evidence for these alterations comes
from the Historical Weather Map Series, the COADS ships database, the Monthly
Weather Review, and NHC microfilm of synoptic weather maps.
September 9:
HWM analyzes a low in a trough located near 16.7N, 59.3W. HURDAT does not list a
storm on this day. Microfilm locates a storm center by aircraft at 17.6N, 59.4W at 1915Z
with sustained surface winds of 55 kt and minimum central pressure of 1009 mb.
Aircraft highlights: 40 kt SE at 1630Z at 18.0N, 56.2W (micro). "A slight disturbance
was located east of the Leeward Islands on the 9th of September" (MWR).
September 10:
HWM analyzes a trough near the Virgin Islands. HURDAT lists this system as a 50 kt
tropical storm at 20.4N, 61.6W. The MWR post-season track map shows a position near
the HURDAT position. Microfilm shows a low of at most 1005 mb centered near 20.1N,
61.8W. Aircraft highlights: 40 kt E at 22.5N, 63.4W at 2145Z (micro). Two other gales.
"It moved northwestward during the 10th" (MWR).
September 11:
HWM does not analyze a closed low. HURDAT lists this as a 45 kt tropical storm at
25.8N, 66.1W. The MWR tracks of centers of cyclones shows a 00Z position near
20.6N, 61.5W and a 12Z position near 24.7N, 63.3W. The MWR post-season track map
shows a 00Z position near 23N, 64.6W and a 12Z position near 26N, 66.2W. Microfilm
shows a broad low of at most 1011 mb centered in the general vicinity of 25.2N, 66.5W.
Aircraft highlights: 35 kt ESE around ~1230Z at 23.3N, 63.0W (micro). "...turned to
northward along the 67th meridian on the 11th..." (MWR).
September 12:
HWM does not analyze a closed low, but analyzes a cold front approaching a few
hundred miles west of the HURDAT position. HURDAT lists this as a 35 kt tropical
storm at 33.2N, 67.1W. The MWR tracks for centers of cyclones shows a 00Z position
near 28.2N, 64W, and a 12Z position near 32N, 65.3W. The MWR post-season track
map shows a 00Z position near 29.2N, 67W and a 12Z position near 33N, 66.9W.
Microfilm does not show a closed low. Aircraft highlights: 35 kt S at 0915Z at 30.7N,
66.0W (micro). One other gale. "...and began to dissipate as it passed about 100 miles
west of Bermuda on the 12th. The storm did not develop a well-defined circulation,
although at the time it was centered northeast of the Leeward Islands reports from
reconnaissance planes indicated winds of 60 miles per hour" (MWR).
September 13:
HWM does not analyze a closed low, but shows a frontal boundary off of the U.S. East
coast. HURDAT's last position was at 18Z on the 12th. The MWR Tracks of Centers of
Cyclones showed a final position at 00Z on the 13th of 36N 65W. No gales or low
pressures.
Two 6-hourly positions are added to the beginning of this storm. HURDAT started this
storm at 00Z on the 10th as a 35 kt tropical storm. At 1915Z on the 9th, an aircraft
performed a center fix on the storm, located at 17.6N, 59.4W. The aircraft visually
estimated maximum surface winds of 55 kt 20 miles from the center. However, the
aircraft measured a minimum central pressure in the center of 1009 mb. This pressure
information hints that the maximum winds were overestimated by the aircraft. 1009 mb
gives 29 kt according to the Brown pressure-wind relationship for south of 25N. An
intensity of 45 kt is chosen for 18Z splitting the difference between the aircraft wind
estimate the winds given from the pressure-wind relationship. On the 10th and 11th, the
track of the storm is shifted slightly to the left (southwest). On the morning of the 11th,
aircraft observations indicate a latitude west of the original HURDAT latitude due to
southerly winds as far west as 66.5W in the circulation of the TC. On the 12th at 12Z,
the storm is analyzed to be due west of Bermuda, a degree south of HURDAT's position.
The only intensity change made was the 00Z intensity of the 10th to reflect the earlier
start time for this storm taking into account the given starting intensity. The 35 kt is
raised to 45 kt at that time. No changes were made to the timing of dissipation.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
1945 Storm 9
32255 09/12/1945 M= 9 9 SNBR= 716 NOT NAMED XING=1 SSS=3
32255 09/12/1945 M= 9 9 SNBR= 716 NOT NAMED XING=1 SSS=4
*
32260 09/12*190 566 65 0*191 582 70 0*192 597 75 0*192 615 80 0*
32260 09/12*190 585 65 0*191 599 70 0*192 613 75 0*193 626 80 0*
*** *** *** *** ***
32265 09/13*194 633 85 0*195 649 95 0*199 665 95 0*204 683 100 0*
32265 09/13*195 638 85 0*198 649 95 0*202 662 95 0*206 680 100 0*
*** *** *** *** *** *** ***
32270 09/14*208 700 100 0*213 715 105 977*220 734 105 0*224 745 105 0*
32270 09/14*210 700 100 0*213 717 105 0*216 730 105 0*220 744 105 0*
*** *** *** *** *** *** ***
32275 09/15*230 760 105 0*236 773 110 0*242 785 115 0*249 796 120 0*
32275 09/15*226 758 105 0*234 772 110 0*242 786 115 0*251 800 115 949*
*** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** ***
32280 09/16*257 806 115 951*268 814 110 963*280 818 85 974*289 818 65 982*
32280 09/16*259 809 100 954*266 815 85 963*275 818 75 974*285 817 70 982*
*** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** ** *** *** **
32285 09/17*298 816 55 987*310 812 50 990*322 808 45 991*334 804 40 996*
32285 09/17*296 815 65 987*310 812 60 990*323 808 60 990*334 803 50 996*
*** *** ** *** ** *** *** **
32290 09/18*346 799 40 1000*358 793 35 1006*370 785 35 1012E386 772 30 0*
32290 09/18*344 799 50 1000*356 793 45 1006E368 785 40 1012E383 770 35 0*
*** ** *** ** **** ** *** *** **
32295 09/19E406 753 25 0E427 727 25 0E441 694 25 0E451 655 25 0*
32295 09/19E403 750 30 0E423 724 25 0E441 690 25 0E451 650 25 0*
*** *** ** *** *** *** ***
32300 09/20E456 606 25 0E463 548 25 0E470 490 25 0E479 461 25 0*
32300 09/20E456 606 30 0E463 548 30 0E470 490 35 0E479 461 35 0*
** ** ** **
32305 HRCFL3
32305 HRCFL4BFL3DFL1
************
U.S. Landfalls:
9/15 1930Z 25.3 80.3 115 kt 949 mb RMW 10 nm OCI 1011 mb ROCI 125 nm
9/15 2000Z 25.4 80.4 115 kt 949 mb RMW 10 nm OCI 1011 mb ROCI 125 nm
9/17 1100Z 32.1 80.9 60 kt 990 mb OCI 1013 mb ROCI 275 nm
Minor track and major intensity changes are made to this cyclone that made landfall in
the Bahamas and Southeast Florida as a major hurricane. Evidence for these alterations
comes from the Historical Weather Map series, the COADS ships database, the Monthly
Weather Review, the Original Monthly Records from NCDC, NHC microfilm of
synoptic weather maps, Connor (1956), Dunn and Miller (1960), Schwerdt et al. (1979),
Ho et al. (1987), and Jarrell et al. (1992).
September 12:
HWM shows a weak low pressure centered near 15.5 N 61W. HURDAT list this as
Category 1 hurricane at 19.2N 59.7W at 12UTC. The MWR tracks of N. Atlantic
Hurricanes and Tropical Disturbances showed a center at 19N 59.5W (am) and 19.5N
63.5W (pm). Ship highlights: No gales or low pressures. Station highlights: No gales or
low pressure. Aircraft highlights: 47kt NW at 20UTC at 18.9N 62.4W (NHC). "It was
first noted east of the Leeward Islands on September 11" (MWR).
September 13:
HWM indicates a hurricane centered near 19.8 N 66.2W. HURDAT list this as a
Category 2 hurricane at 19.9 N 66.5W at 12UTC. The MWR Tracks of N. Atlantic
Hurricanes and Tropical Disturbances showed a center at 20N 66W (am) 22N 69W (pm).
Ship highlights: No gales or low pressures. Station highlights: No gales or low pressure.
Aircraft highlights: 48kt NNE at 1200UTC at 21.0N 65.8W (NHC); "105K at flight
level, 120K at sfc etd" (NHC). "This system was noticed moving west-northwestward
passing north over Puerto Rico during the morning of the 13th" (MWR).
September 14:
HWM shows a hurricane centered near 23.5N 73.5W. HURDAT lists this as a Category 3
hurricane at 22N 73.4W at 12UTC. The MWR Tracks of N. Atlantic Hurricanes and
Tropical Disturbance showed a center at 22.5N 72W (am) 23.5N 75.5 (pm). Ship
highlights: No gales or low pressure. Station highlights: 91 kt (no time - fastest mile) and
1001mb at Clarence Town, Bahamas at 1900 UTC (MWR) and 977mb at Turks Islands
at 0530UTC (MWR). Aircraft highlights: 52kt S at 0200UTC at 21.8N 71.8W (NHC),
Center fix of 21.7N 73.7W at 1415UTC (NHC). "The storm began a gradual curvature to
the northwest while passing over the Great Bahama Bank...Turks Island reported gusts
reaching 150 miles per hour (estimated)."(MWR)
September 15:
HWM shows a hurricane centered near 24.5N 79.5W. HURDAT lists this as a Category 3
at 24.5N 78.5W at 12UTC. The MWR Tracks of N. Atlantic Hurricanes and Tropical
Disturbances showed a center at 24N 79.5W (am) 25.5N 81W (pm). Ship highlights: No
gales or low pressures. Station highlights: 951mb at 2055UTC at Homestead, FL (Army
base) (MWR). 107kt SW at Carysfort Reef Light at 1935 UTC (MWR). 953mb at
Carysfort Reef Light at 1900 UTC (MWR). Aircraft highlights: 65kt SE at 1900UTC at
24.9N 80.0W (NHC). "The hurricane struck inland on the south Florida coast over the
northern end of Key Largo about 3:30pm on September 15th. Moving inland, the center
passed almost directly over Homestead Army Air Base. After leaving the cities of the
south coast, the hurricane traversed the swamplands of the Everglades for about 150
miles. La Belle, on Lake Okeechobee, was the only town to feel the full force of the
winds in this area. Reports indicate that every house in town was damaged." (MWR)
"1009 mb environmental pressure, 101 kt max 1 min equivalent wind at landfall"
(Schwerdt et al.). "Landfall at 25.3N 80.3W, Central pressure at landfall 951 mb
observed in Homestead, FL, RMW 12 nmi, Speed of motion 10 kt" (Ho et al.). "FL,
SE3, 951 mb central pressure" (Jarrell et al.).
September 16:
HWM shows a hurricane center near 27.8N 82W. HURDAT lists this as a Category 2
hurricane at 28.0N 81.8W at 12UTC. The MWR Tracks of N. Atlantic Hurricanes and
Tropical Disturbances showed a center at 27N 83W (am) and 29.9N 82.9W (pm). Ship
highlights: No gales or low pressure. Station highlights: 985 mb at Ft. Myers, FL at
0500UTC (MWR), 70kt SE at Miami (CO) at 0000UTC (OMR), 70 kt E (fastest mile) at
Moore Haven at 0730UC (MWR); 70kt S (fastest mile) at Ponce De Leon light at
1900UTC (MWR). Aircraft highlights: 52kt SSE at 0330UTC at 23.5N 75.5W (NHC).
"By the time the center reached the rich citrus belt of Florida the central pressure had
filled approximately an inch, and winds had dropped to velocities only slightly in excess
of 75 miles per hour, an intensity which was apparently maintained until the center
reached the Atlantic, near St. Augustine, about 10:00pm"(MWR).
September 17:
HWM shows a tropical depression centered near 33N 80W. HURDAT lists this as a
Tropical Depression at 28.0N 81.8W at 12UTC. The MWR Tracks of N. Atlantic
Hurricanes and Tropical Disturbances showed a center at 33N 81.5W (am) and 34.8N
80.5W (pm). Ship highlights: No gales or low pressure. Station highlights: 74 kt E
(fastest mile - no time - MWR), 992 mb minimum pressure at 1145 UTC, 30 kt E (5 min)
with 993 mb at 1130 UTC, 39 kt (5 min peak winds) at 0830Z with 1002 mb at Paris
Island, SC at (SWO, MWR), 50kt E at 0845UTC and with pressure at 997mb at
1345UTC at Charleston, SC (WBO) (MWR). "MG 0410E E85-90" (Surface Weather
Observations for Paris Island - Translation: "Maximum gust 0410 Eastern time,
estimated 85-90 mph"). "Skirting over the Georgia coast, the center again moved inland
on the South Carolina coast near Paris Island, where winds of 80 to 90 miles per hour
were reported. As the storm began to lose force over the Carolinas, excessive rain caused
considerable flooding, with resultant crop losses running into millions of dollars. Serious
floods occurred along the Pee Dee reaching the highest of record. The storm was traced
as far as Nova Scotia where it dissipated on the 19th" (MWR).
September 18:
HWM shows a weak low centered near 44.5N 66W. HURDAT list this as a weak low at
37.0N 78.5W at 12UTC. The MWR Tracks of N. Atlantic Hurricanes and Tropical
Disturbances showed a center at 37N 79W (am) and 40.5N 75.5W (pm). Ship highlights:
No gales or low pressure. Station highlights: No gales or low pressure. "Parts of Virginia
as well as the Maryland/DC area are receiving great amounts of rain as the storm is
steadily dissipating as the low continues north with a warm front leading the storm; it is
constantly weakening with winds keeping steady between 20 and 40kt. The storm is now
dissipating at a steady but fast pace as it approaches the Mason-Dixon Line bordering the
New England states " (MWR).
September 19:
HWM shows a weak low centered near 44.5N 68W. HURDAT lists this as a weak low at
44.1N 69.4W at 12UTC. The MWR Tracks of N. Atlantic Hurricanes and Tropical
Disturbances showed a center at 44.3N 68.5W (am). Ship highlights: No gales or low
pressure. Station highlights: No gales or low pressure.
No change to the genesis time of this cyclone. The system was investigated as to
whether it began farther east over the tropical North Atlantic. However, no ship reports
could be obtained. HURDAT originally started the system as a 65 kt hurricane at 00Z on
the 12th. Minor track changes are introduced throughout the lifetime of the cyclone.
Aircraft reconnaissance reached the cyclone late on the 12th and visually estimated the
surface winds to peak around 50 kt. It appears that the mission was a circumnavigation
fix, not a penetration fix. Therefore, the 50 kt surface winds estimated by the crew likely
cannot be considered an intensity value, especially given the large radii that the aircraft
flew around the cyclone. The original intensity values from HURDAT are now retained.
The cyclone certainly existed east of the first position at 00Z on the 12th, but without any
observations this cannot be added. The cyclone apparently intensified on the 13th and a
second aircraft reconnaissance mission estimated maximum winds at flight level (1500')
of 105 kt and estimated surface winds of 120 kt. Unfortunately, neither of these
measurements of the era were well-calibrated or reliable. Additionally, no aircraft central
pressure measurements were obtained for the lifetime of this cyclone. The 100 kt
intensity at 18Z the 13th is retained in HURDAT. On the 14th at 0530Z, the center of the
hurricane came closer or perhaps went over Turks Island, which observed 977 mb
pressure. This suggests maximum winds of at least 81 kt from the Brown et al. pressure-
wind relationship for south of 25N. Given the uncertainty, this 977 mb value is removed
from HURDAT and the original intensity of 105 kt retained. The hurricane also
impacted the Bahamas with highest winds reported were 91 kt (fastest mile) from
Clarence Town, sometime during the 14th. This is consistent with the extreme damage
that occurred over the Bahamas and the Category 3 intensities already included for
HURDAT during its passage over the islands of the Bahamas.
The hurricane made landfall in Southeast Florida around 1930UTC on the 15th at 25.3N
80.3W at Key Largo and at 2000UTC at 25.4N 80.4W on the mainland. A 951 mb
central pressure was observed at the Homestead Army base about an hour (2055UTC)
after landfall. Using the Ho et al. pressure-decay model with for the Florida peninsula
stratification, this suggests that the central pressure at landfall was slightly deeper - 949
mb. This central pressure suggests winds of 112 and 106 kt for the Brown et al. south
and north of 25N, respectively. Perhaps more appropriately, for the subset of intensifying
tropical cyclones, 949 mb suggests winds of 114 and 108 kt, respectively. The hurricane
had a small RMW (~10 nm) compared with climatology for that central pressure and
landfall latitude (17 nm - Vickery et al. 2001). The outer closed isobar of 1011 mb was
near average, but the size was a tiny 125 nm radius. The hurricane had slowed somewhat
from its previously quick motion, but still made landfall with a forward speed of 11 kt,
close to average speed. The small size of the hurricane indicates winds above that from
the pressure-wind relationship, so 115 kt is chosen as the landfall intensity for southeast
Florida. It is of note that the Carysfort Reef Light had a peak 5 min wind of 107 kt at
1936 UTC (which converts to a 1-min wind of 113 kt after multiplying by 1.06) and a
fastest mile of 120 kt at 1937 UTC [making this a 26 sec wind] (which converts to a 113
kt 1-min wind after dividing by 1.06. Reducing the elevated (~40 m above the ground)
anemometer observation of 113 kt wind to the standard 10 m gives 102 kt, which is
consistent with a landfall intensity of 115 kt. An interesting aspect is that the strongest
winds were from the southwest, which suggests the possibility the station did not sample
the maximum wind of the northwestward-moving hurricane. While the 115 kt value for
the landfall intensity is slightly less (120 kt) than that previously indicated in HURDAT
at 18 UTC on the 15th, it does boost the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale from a Category
3 to a Category 4 ("CFL4"). After landfall, the highest observed winds within two hours
of synoptic times were: 75 kt at 00 UTC on the 16th, 70 kt at 06 UTC, 39 kt at 12 UTC,
68 kt at 18 UTC, and 66 kt at 00 UTC on the 17th. (The 70 kt fastest mile wind reported
at the Ponce De Leon light [roughly 40 m above the ground] at 19 UTC converts to 68 kt
after adjusting to a peak 1 min 10 m wind.) Runs of the Kaplan-DeMaria inland wind
decay model suggests winds of 80, 59, 42, 36, and 39 kt, respectively. Given the transit
of the hurricane over the Everglades/Big Cypress as well as movement that kept the
center of the hurricane not too far from the coast, substantially less decay to the winds
may occur than suggested by the Kaplan-DeMaria model. Winds are selected to be 100
kt (a major change downward from 115 kt originally) at 00 UTC, 85 kt (down from 110
kt) at 06 UTC, 75 kt (down from 85 kt) at 12 UTC, 70 kt (up from 65 kt) at 18 UTC, and
65 kt (up from 55 kt) at 00 UTC on the 17th in the reanalysis. The winds selected better
match the observed high winds on the 16th/early on the 17th as well as the reported
extreme destruction at inland locations. This also maintains the system as a hurricane all
the way across the Florida peninsula until after it briefly reached the Atlantic Ocean.
Previously the cyclone was downgraded to a tropical storm at 00 UTC on the 17th just
south of 30N over northeastern Florida. Application of the Schwerdt et al. wind model
suggests that Southwest Florida was impacted by Category 3 winds based upon the
revised track and intensity. Thus Southwest Florida is now indicated as experiencing
Category 3 winds ("BFL3"), while previously HURDAT did not list the area as a
hurricane impact. Farther north in Florida, Northeast Florida is also now listed as a
hurricane impact based upon the revised track and intensity, with Category 1 ("DFL1")
conditions as confirmed by the observations along the coast.
After reaching the Atlantic coast of Florida, the hurricane closely paralleled the Georgia
coast until making a final landfall near the border of Georgia and South Carolina.
Landfall is estimated to have occurred around 11 UTC on the 17th near 32.1N 80.9W. A
992 mb pressure (no wind provided) was recorded at Paris Island (now "Parris Island"),
SC at 1145 UTC and 993 mb with 30 kt E was observed 15 minutes earlier. This
indicates a central pressure of 990 mb, which replaces the 991 mb in HURDAT. 990 mb
suggests winds of 59 kt from the Brown et al. pressure-wind relationship. The radius of
the outer closed isobar had expanded to 275 nm and the forward speed had accelerated
some to 14 kt, neither of which would one expect a large deviation from the pressure-
wind relationship. The MWR table had mistakenly indicated that Paris Island had a
fastest mile wind of 74 kt E. However, the original records from Paris Island show that
these were gusts and the strongest sustained (5 min) winds were only 39 kt E at 0830Z.
Maximum winds at landfall are analyzed to be 60 kt, a high end tropical storm. The
cyclone became extratropical around 12 UTC on the 18th, near the North Carolina-
Virginia border, which is six hours earlier than indicated in HURDAT. Winds were
boosted on the 20th back to gale force while the system was still extratropical through
available ship observations. No changes were made to the dissipation of this cyclone.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
1945 Storm 10
33070 10/02/1945 M= 4 10 SNBR= 733 NOT NAMED XING=0 SSS=0
33070 10/02/1945 M= 6 10 SNBR= 733 NOT NAMED XING=0 SSS=0
*
33075 10/02* 0 0 0 0* 0 0 0 0* 0 0 0 0*153 803 60 0*
33075 10/02* 0 0 0 0*155 810 40 0*156 815 50 0*158 820 60 0*
*** *** ** *** *** ** *** ***
33080 10/03*162 826 65 0*164 833 70 0*165 842 80 0*165 856 85 982*
33080 10/03*161 825 65 0*164 831 70 0*166 838 70 987*168 849 75 982*
*** *** *** *** *** ** *** *** *** **
33085 10/04*165 870 80 0*164 883 70 0*162 894 60 0*160 903 50 0*
33085 10/04*166 861 80 0*164 874 80 0*162 887 80 0*160 900 55 0*
*** *** *** *** ** *** **
33090 10/05*158 912 35 0*157 922 25 0*155 932 20 0*154 937 15 0*
33090 10/05*158 913 35 0*157 926 30 0*155 940 30 0*155 957 30 0*
*** *** ** *** ** *** *** **
(The 6th and 7th are new to HURDAT.)
33092 10/06*158 977 30 0*163 997 30 0*1701015 30 0*1801027 30 0*
33094 10/07*1931035 30 0*2101041 30 0*2301045 25 0* 0 0 0 0*
33095 HR
Major track and intensity changes are made to this hurricane that impacted Central
America. An additional two days were added to this system, as it remained a tropical
depression in the Northeastern Pacific. Evidence for these alterations comes from the
Historical Weather Map Series, the COADS ships database, the Monthly Weather
Review, and NHC microfilm of synoptic weather maps.
September 30:
HWM analyzes a low of at most 1005 mb centered near 16N 84W along the coast of
Honduras. HURDAT does not list the system on this date. No gales or low pressures.
October 1:
HWM analyzes a monsoon trough/ITCZ over Central America and the southwestern
Caribbean Seas. HURDAT does not list the system on this date. No gales or low
pressures.
October 2:
HWM analyzes a tropical storm inside a closed contour of at most 1010 mb centered near
16.3N, 82.6W. HURDAT firsts lists this at 18Z as a 60 kt tropical storm at 15.3N,
80.3W. The MWR post-season track map shows a 12Z position at 16N, 81.8W.
Microfilm shows a low of at most 1008 mb centered near 16.2N, 82.4W. Ship highlights:
40 kt SE and 1002 mb at 16.2N, 81.6W at 18Z (micro). Aircraft highlights: 50 kt SE at
16.0N, 80.4W at 2115Z (micro). Five other gales. "This disturbance was first detected in
the western Caribbean near latitude 16N, longitude 81-82W on October 2. From this
position, the storm moved west-northwestward and passed about 50 miles south of Swan
Island. Light sea swells, indicating a disturbance in the vicinity, were first noted during
the afternoon of October 1. They increased in magnitude during the night and following
morning, and by noon of the following day were very distinct, having a frequency of 7
per minute. Later the frequency dropped to 6 per minute at 4 pm (on the 2nd)" (MWR).
October 3:
HWM analyzes a tropical storm of at most 1000 mb centered near 16.2N, 84.2W.
HURDAT lists this as a 80 kt hurricane at 16.5N, 84.2W. The MWR post-season track
map shows a 00Z position near 16.3N, 82.8W and a 12Z position near 16.5N, 84W.
Microfilm shows a position near the MWR position. Ship highlights: 40 kt SSE and 1002
mb at 15.7N, 81.7W at 4Z (micro); 55 kt SE and 1008 mb at 16.2N, 81.5W at 11Z
(micro). One other gale. Land highlights: 1001 mb at Swan Island at 1010Z (min
pressure) (MWR); 38 kt E (1-min) at Swan Island at 1345Z (MWR). Six other low
pressures at Swan Island between 1001-1005 mb. Aircraft highlights: 85 kt NE at 16.8N,
84.1W at 14Z (micro); 982 mb pressure estimated from aircraft (MWR). Three other
hurricane force wind obs. Ten tropical storm force wind obs (35-60 kt). "...and 5 per
minute the following morning (referring to sea swell frequency on the morning of the
3rd), an indication that the storm was of considerable intensity. A plane on
reconnaissance came on the storm while it was centered south of Swan Island, and the
crew estimated winds at 85 knots with a central pressure near 29.00 inches. At Swan
Island a maximum wind (5-min) of 39 mph from the east (extreme 1-min wind of 44
mph), was experienced at 8:45 am on the 3rd, with occasional gusts at 60 mph; the
pressure was 29.57 inches at 5:10 am on that date. Hundreds of coconut palms were
uprooted on the island, and practically all banana trees were blown over. Other damage
was slight" (MWR). Microfilm says that an aircraft reported the center at 1504Z to be at
16.5N, 84.2W with a pressure of 987 mb (29.15 in) (micro). Microfilm says that at 19Z,
the center was at 16.9N, 85.1W.
October 4:
HWM shows a tropical storm of at most 1000 mb centered inland near 14.9N, 88.9W.
HURDAT lists this as a 60 kt tropical storm at 16.2N, 89.4W. The MWR post-season
track map shows a 00Z position near 16.6N, 85.7W and a 12Z position near the
HURDAT position. Microfilm shows a low of at most 993 mb centered near 16.7N,
88.2W. Land highlights: 35 kt WSW and 1000 mb at 16.0N, 86.0W at 0Z (micro); 10 kt
SW and 997 mb at Tela, Honduras (15.7N, 87.5W) at 9Z (micro). Three other low
pressures. "Moving westward, the hurricane struck inland about 8 am, August 4, 60 to 80
miles south of Belize. Press reports indicate that three-fourths of the houses in Punta
Gorda were flattened and that 40 houses were destroyed at Livingston on the Guatemala
coast. Many were injured in towns along the coast, and one death was reported. After
passing inland the storm continued on a westward course and lost force over Guatemala
and Mexico" (MWR).
October 5:
HWM analyzes a low of at most 1005 mb centered near 15N, 93.5W. HURDAT lists this
as a 20 kt tropical depression at 15.5N, 93.2W. No gales or low pressures. "Reports
indicate that a center, accompanied by heavy rain, was recognizable as far west as
Acapulco on October 5, making this hurricane as one of the rare tropical storms that have
succeeded in maintaining a circulation as they passed from one ocean to another over
Central America and Mexico" (MWR).
October 6:
HWM analyzes a tropical storm of at most 1005 mb centered near 17.3N, 101.4W.
HURDAT does not list a system on this day. Ship highlights: 30 kt WNW and 1004 mb
at 1Z at 14.5N, 98.5W (COA); 25 kt WSW and 1005 mb at 3Z at 14.5N, 98.5W (COA).
Land highlights: 15 kt SSW and 1004 mb at Acapulco, Mexico (16.8N, 99.9W) at 12Z
(HWM).
October 7:
HWM analyzes two closed lows in close proximity, both of at most 1005 mb. The larger
one is centered near 19.2N, 105W and the smaller one is centered near 15.6N, 105.7W.
HURDAT does not list a system on this day. Highlights: none.
Low pressure covered the western Caribbean and Central America on September 30 and
October 1, but no closed circulation was present based upon observations that are
available. HURDAT started this storm at 18Z on 2 October as a 60 kt tropical storm.
However, it is chosen to start this storm 12 hours earlier at 06Z on 2 October based upon
observations that the system underwent genesis at this time (or earlier). At 08Z on the
2nd, there was a ship reporting 40 kt from the east along with 1004 mb pressure located
north of where the center was thought to be located. This strong wind accompanied by a
low pressure gives some confidence that there may have been a closed low located to the
south, although it is not definitive proof. However, by 12Z, there were observed west
winds south of the center, and it was definitely closed at that time. 35 kt is chosen for
00Z on the 2nd, but the winds may have been higher. Minor track changes were
introduced throughout the duration of the storm's existence, except for a major change
westward on the original last position in HURDAT (at 18Z on the 5th). (More about the
decay phase of this cyclone is given below.) An aircraft central pressure fix of 987 mb
was measured at 15Z on the 3rd. This suggests winds of 68 kt from the south of 25N
Brown et al. pressure-wind relationship. An 85 kt surface wind was visually estimated by
aircraft at 14Z on the 3rd. A second central pressure of 982 mb was observed by aircraft
at 18Z of the 3rd. The Brown et al. southern pressure-wind relationship for 982 mb is 75
kt. 70 kt is selected for 12Z and 75 kt is chosen for 18Z on the 3rd, as the visual estimated
surface winds of the era were not well-calibrated. On the 4th, landfall of the hurricane at
16.1N, 88.8W near Punta Gorda, occurred around 13Z, which is a couple of hours later
than in HURDAT. HURDAT had the intensity of the hurricane increasing to 85 kt at
18Z on the 3rd and then decreasing to 60 kt at 12Z of the 4th, the time of landfall.
However, there is evidence to support that the hurricane did not weaken prior to landfall.
Tela, Honduras recorded a minimum peripheral pressure of 995 mb while the storm
passed more than half a degree latitude to the north on the 4th. It is possible - perhaps
likely - that the system continued to intensify up until landfall. Unfortunately, the Belize
Meteorological Service has no further information about this hurricane. Given the severe
wind-caused damage described in the Monthly Weather Review ("three-fourths of the
houses were flattened"), indicating this hurricane at the high end of a Category 1
hurricane at landfall - 80 kt - is a reasonable solution in the absence of additional
information. Because of the mountainous terrain over Guatemala, a decay to a tropical
depression is now indicated by 06Z on the 5th, 17 hours after landfall. HURDAT's
original last position on this storm is at 18Z on the 5th over the Pacific Ocean. However,
there is evidence from HWM and COADS that the circulation remained intact as it
crossed central America and extreme southern Mexico and then reintensified in the
Northeastern Pacific. The depression then turned towards the WNW, paralleling the
coast of Mexico, perhaps staying just offshore for much of the time. At 04Z on the 6th, a
30 kt west wind with a pressure of 1005 mb was observed south of the center of the
storm. At 12Z, Acapulco reported a pressure of 1004 mb. 1004 mb corresponds to 39 kt
using the Brown pressure-wind relationship. However, because of the monsoon trough
environment of the northeastern Pacific Ocean, the Atlantic pressure-wind relationships
are not as valid. Without explicit tropical storm force winds being observed, this system
is designated a high end (30 kt) tropical depression while over the Pacific. It is possible
though that the cyclone did reach tropical storm force. The system clearly moves inland
later on the 6th over western Mexico. The last position is given at 12Z on the 7th as a
dissipating tropical depression near 23N, 104.5W.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
1945 Storm 11:
33100 10/10/1945 M= 7 11 SNBR= 734 NOT NAMED XING=0 SSS=0 L
33105 10/10* 0 0 0 0* 0 0 0 0*131 779 30 0*144 788 30 0*
33105 10/10* 0 0 0 0* 0 0 0 0*140 779 30 0*149 780 30 0*
*** *** ***
33110 10/11*155 795 35 0*167 800 35 0*178 803 45 0*188 803 55 0*
33110 10/11*158 789 35 0*168 798 35 0*178 803 45 0*188 803 55 0*
*** *** *** ***
33115 10/12*196 802 65 0*205 798 70 0*216 793 85 1000*229 786 80 0*
33115 10/12*196 802 65 0*205 798 75 0*216 793 85 0*229 786 80 0*
** ****
33120 10/13*244 774 65 0*258 760 65 982*272 738 65 0*285 710 65 0*
33120 10/13*242 772 80 0*256 758 75 982*272 738 70 0*285 705 65 0*
*** *** ** *** *** ** ** ***
33125 10/14E299 680 65 0E312 642 55 0E324 605 40 0E335 567 30 0*
33125 10/14E299 680 65 0E312 642 55 0E324 605 40 0E332 575 35 0*
*** *** **
33130 10/15E345 529 30 0E353 490 30 0E360 449 30 0E367 422 30 0*
33130 10/15E340 545 35 0E349 505 35 0E358 455 35 0E367 422 35 0*
*** *** ** *** *** ** *** *** ** **
33135 10/16E372 400 30 0E378 377 30 0E383 350 30 0E390 322 30 0*
33140 HR
Minor track changes and minor intensity changes are implemented with this small
hurricane that made landfall in Cuba and the Bahamas. Evidence for these alterations
comes from the Historical Weather Map Series, the COADS ships database, Perez et al.
(2000), and the Monthly Weather Review's 1966 article by Fernandez-Partagas.
October 10:
HWM does not analyze a low on this day. HURDAT lists this as a 30 kt tropical
depression at 13.1N, 77.9W. A paper in the July 1966 MWR by Fernandez-Partagas
(from now on referred to as "MWR 1966") had a center near the HURDAT position and
tropical depression intensity. Land highlights: 35 kt SW and 1012 mb at Barranquilla,
Colombia at 12Z. "Strong evidence of a tropical depression- or perhaps a tropical storm-
has been found over the southwestern Caribbean, north of Colombia and Panama, as
early as October 10, 1945" (MWR 1966).
October 11:
HWM analyzes a trough with a WSW-ENE frontal zone from 21N, 91W to 27N, 78W
and HWM analyzes a low in the trough near 23.3N, 87W. HURDAT lists a 45 kt tropical
storm at 17.8N, 80.3W. MWR 1966 shows a center near the HURDAT position and
tropical storm intensity. No gales or low pressures. "It is believed that the storm reached
hurricane intensity during October 11, while the storm was approaching the Cayman
Islands and just in that vicinity. Little is known about the storm's passage over the
Cayman Islands. The reference available came from some Cuban fishermen who were
taken by surprise at Cayman Brac; they merely said that 'rain and winds' were felt there.
The diameter of the storm was so small that the meteorological station at Grand Cayman,
about 70 miles to the west, did not report any significant stormy weather" (MWR 1966).
October 12:
HWM analyzes a closed low of at most 1010 mb centered in the general vicinity of
22.3N, 86.1W along a complex SW-NE frontal structure extending from the Yucatan
Peninsula to the low to Havana to the northwest Bahamas to beyond 28N, 71W.
HURDAT lists an 85 kt hurricane at 21.6N, 79.3W. MWR 1966 shows a position near
the HURDAT position with hurricane intensity. Land highlights: 60-65 kt around 12Z at
Tunas de Zaza, Cuba (21.7N, 79.5W) (MWR 1966); 1000 mb around 12Z somewhere in
the zone of Tunas de Zaza (MWR 1966); 45-50 kt around 13Z at Sancti-Spiritus, Cuba
(21.9N, 79.4W) (MWR 1966). Regarding the storm in Cuba, "Based on observations
received, the center of the storm moved ashore about 7 am EST (12Z) on the 12th, and
emerged on the northern coast about 11:30 am (1630Z). While passing over Laberinto de
las Doce Legunas (an archipelago off the southern coast of Cuba), the cyclone destroyed
almost all the mangrove trees at Cayo Breton. The center of the storm moved over Las
Villas Province just east of Tunas de Zaza, near a place called Las Coloradas, where it
also destroyed all the mangrove trees, and there the sea water advanced some distance
ashore. It then moved to the vicinity of the Jatibonico sugar-mill where a lull was
reported for about 5 minutes, and thereafter crossed over Mayajigua where a calm was
reported for about the same period. The minimum value (storm's central pressure) was
felt at Jatibonico, where the storm was violently felt. The storm emerged at the Bahamas
Channel, west of Punta Alegre sugar-mill, and sea waters receded at that place."
Regarding the storm speed, "The 'unrecorded' hurricane of October 1945 was moving
fairly rapidly, at an average speed of 16-17 kt, while crossing over central Cuba, and
slightly over 20 kt when emerging from the Bahamas into the Atlantic Ocean" (MWR
1966). Regarding the intensity, "Estimated winds over 100 mph as the storm moved
across Cuba are in excellent agreement with those expected from the data available, if a
vr1/2 = constant vortex with an inner radius of 4 miles or less is accepted. Also under this
reasoning, it is very likely that the minimum sea level pressure was around 975-980 mb
in accordance with Fletcher's empirical formula (used in Fletcher 1955). Therefore,
hurricane force winds can be easily supported" (MWR 1966). "Along the path south of
Sierra de Jatibonico (rather low mountains in central Cuba), and about 20 km with, palm
trees to the right of the center's path fell down toward the north, while those to the left
did so toward the south. The eastern sector or the storm was more severe than the
western one. Winds of 70 to 75 mph were reported at Tunas de Zaza. The influence of
the storm was clearly noticed in Sancti-Spiritus where winds reached 55 mph and the
barographic curve was typical of a tropical cyclone." "Four persons died and 200 were
injured in the furious storm which struck Jatibonico and Sancti-Spiritus. Damages are
estimated at $2 million. Strong winds affected Sancti-Spiritus and the outskirts of Tunas
de Zaza, Guasimal, Zaza del Medio, and Taguasco from 9 to 11 am, the most affected
being Guasimal." The following is the only advisory released on this storm by a
meteorological service: "National Observatory (Cuban Weather Service) October 12,
1945, 11 am. A small tropical storm, a disturbance somewhat greater in size than a
tornado or waterspout, hit the zone of Tunas de Zaza with pressure reading of 1000 mb,
strong northeasterly winds, and intermittent showers at 7:30 am this morning. The
disturbance is moving northward; it is affecting places near its track and it is passing
rapidly toward the northern coast." The following three quotes are from El Pais (Havana,
Cuba) evening issue, October 13, 1945: "Mayajigua is without communications. A
severe storm struck this town and its outskirts yesterday morning. Several buildings were
seriously damaged." "Zaza del Medio. Between 8:30 am and 11 am, a storm passed over
this town, and caused heavy damage to houses and tobacco-houses (flimsy constructions
where tobacco is processed)." "Guayos. A tropical storm accompanied by torrential rain
and strong northeasterly winds in gusts, affected this town in the morning hours
yesterday; heavy damage was reported." "The following quote is from Diario de la
Marina, (Havana, Cuba), October 13, 1945: 'Many vessels have been torn away from
their mooring at Tunas de Zaza because of the spout.'" "1945, October 11-12, Category
1 hurricane for Cuba" (Perez et al.)
October 13:
HWM analyzes an extremely elongated closed low of at most 1010 mb centered in the
general vicinity of 26.5N, 70.7W along a WSW-ENE frontal boundary extending from
the Yucatan Peninsula, through the low to beyond 30N, 58W. HURDAT lists this as a 65
kt hurricane at 27.2N, 73.8W. MWR 1966 shows a position near the HURDAT position
with hurricane intensity. Land highlights: 35-45 kt and 1005 mb (min p) at Nassau,
Bahamas (MWR 1966); calm and 982 mb (uncorrected) at Eleuthera, Bahamas (25.0N,
76.3W) (MWR 1966); 60-80 kt at Eleuthera, Bahamas (MWR 1966); 40-45 kt and 1007
mb (uncorrected) at Andros Island, Bahamas (24.5N, 78.0W) (MWR 1966). Regarding
the storm in the Bahamas, "Although wind estimates in the vicinity of the path over the
Bahamas have been found to be somewhat contradictory, most of the data available are
also in favor of the existence of winds in excess of 74 mph. Unfortunately, it has not
been possible to pinpoint an accurate track of the center over the Islands because of the
lack of proper information. However, unconfirmed calm reports have been stated by
different persons who formerly lived in small villages on the southern tip of Andros and
indications are that the center must have passed very close to Governor's Harbour
(Eleuthera) where the minimum sea level pressure (982 mb, probably uncorrected) was
recorded and where the heaviest damages were suffered. An upper-air study of this case
was initially considered, but data were not sufficient to make a serious attempt. 500 mb
maps of the HWM series have been examined for the period concerned, and a fairly good
agreement of the track with the prevailing pattern of circulation was detected. Some
slight warming was also noticed in the 500-mb radiosonde reports from southern Florida
and Cuba on October 12, 1945. Regarding the storm in the Bahamas, "According to
press reports, the barometer read a minimum of 29.68 in. (about 1005 mb.) at Nassau,
New Providence, where 40-50 mph winds were felt." "Regarding Eleuthera, the Nassau
Guardian published the following account on October 13: Storm damages small vessels.
Takes one life at Eleuthera. Harbour Island experiences winds over 70 mph. Harbour
Island (Eleuthera), where a number of small boats are destroyed, reports that there was a
wind force last night of between 70 and 90 mph. No damage to houses was reported and
crops also escaped. Winds of an estimated gale force were reported to have raged over
the whole length of Eleuthera, sending two vessels ashore and tearing others from their
moorings. It is understood that Governor's property as well as a number of privately-
owned buildings have been very badly damaged, and that telephone lines are down and
roads throughout the island are blocked...A severe north to northwest storm passed over
the whole length of Eleuthera between 11:30 pm and 2 am (October 12-13). The wind
was estimated at gale force and was accompanied by rain. Vessels were blown from their
mooring." "Some additional information on the storm's passage over Eleuthera is found
in the 1945 Annual Report submitted to the Out Island Commissioner of the Bahamas by
his colleague at the Governor's Harbour: 'Lowest reading: 29.00 inches. From 11 pm on
the 12th to 3 am on the 13th of October a severe hurricane passed over the district.'
Although it is not indicated in the report, it is obvious that the lowest barometer reading
of 29.00 inches (982 mb) (probably uncorrected) must have been recorded at Governor's
Harbour during the hurricane's passage. There can be no possible confusion in this case,
since no other hurricane directly affected the settlement in the whole year of 1945"
(MWR 1966). "The Commissioner at Mangrove Cay, Andros, gave the following
account in his Annual Report for 1945: 'On the 14-15th night of September a storm with
full hurricane force at the center came near the District, passing slightly to the south.
Again on October 12, a cyclonic storm with winds up to 50 mph struck the District! It
was during these storms that the barometer fell to 1007 mb (uncorrected). The storm on
October 12th struck the District with terrific force in sections. Apparently, it was more
like a cyclonic storm. This brought greater destruction to farms and coconut trees.
Thousands of coconut trees which had not recovered from the shocks of the storm of
September were twisted, uprooted, snapped and dashed to the ground'" (MWR 1966).
October 14:
HWM analyzes a closed low of at most 1000 mb near 31.2N, 60.6W with a cold front
extending from the low towards the WSW to 26N, 75W and a warm front extending ESE
from the low to 29N, 52W. Another front is located just a few hundred miles north and
west of the low and the cold front. HURDAT lists this as a 40 kt extratropical storm at
32.4N, 60.5W. MWR 1966 shows a position near the HURDAT position as an
extratropical storm. No gales or low pressures.
October 15:
HWM analyzes a low of at most 1000 mb centered near 35.8N, 45W with a cold front
extending southwestward from the low to 26N, 59W, and a warm front extending
southeastward from the low to 28N, 38W. HURDAT lists this as a 30 kt extratropical
low at 36.0N, 44.9W. MWR 1966 shows a position near the HURDAT position as
extratropical. Ship highlights: 30 kt SSW and 1002 mb at 34N, 52W at 3Z (COA). One
other low pressure.
October 16:
HWM analyzes an occluded low of at most 1000 mb centered near 38.5N, 35.5W with an
occluded front extending down to a triple point with a warm and cold front near 34N,
34W. HURDAT lists this as a 30 kt extratropical low at 38.3N, 35.0W. MWR 1966
shows a position near the HURDAT position as extratropical. Ship highlights: 20 kt ESE
and 1004 mb at 6Z at 42.0N, 37.0W (COA). Six other low pressures.
No changes were introduced for the genesis of this system. Track changes for this storm
are minor and are introduced on all dates of the cyclone's lifetime except for the 12th and
16th. The 35 kt SW wind with 1012 mb in Barranquilla occurred 180 nm southeast of the
analyzed centered position at 12Z on the 10th. Given the relatively high pressure, it
appears that this observation likely is not directly related to the circulation of the cyclone
and/or was a transient event. The system is retained as a tropical depression on the 10th.
The cyclone made landfall around 12Z on the 12th in southern Cuba. The estimated
minimum pressure of the storm at landfall in Cuba was 975-980 mb based upon the
Fletcher relationship applied to a 1000 mb peripheral pressure reading. Although the
central pressure may have been around 980 mb, this value is not added to HURDAT
because of the uncertainty in what the central pressure was. Assuming the central
pressure was in the neighborhood of 980 mb, this value yields a wind speed of 78 kt from
the Brown et al. pressure-wind relationship. There was lower than usual environmental
pressure (~1010 mb outer closed isobar), and the storm was moving at an average
forward speed of about 11-12 kt. These arguments for going with a lower wind speed are
counteracted by the extremely small RMW of this hurricane. Despite the Perez et al.
(2000) assessment of a Category 1 for Cuba, there is not enough evidence to change the
original HURDAT wind speed of 85 kt at Cuban landfall. Therefore, the 85 kt Category
2 hurricane is retained in HURDAT and for Cuban landfall. Since Eleuthera reported a
982 mb central pressure early on the 13th, the analyzed intensity is kept stronger than
HURDAT through the hurricane's passage through the Bahamas. 982 mb equals 75 kt
using the Brown pressure-wind relationship for south of 25N and 70 kt for N of 25 N. 80
kt is chosen for 00Z, 75 kt is chosen for 6Z, and 70 kt is chosen for 12Z, all higher than
the constant 65 kt in HRUDAT. From late on the 14th through the 15th, during the
extratropical stage, the intensity is analyzed to be slightly stronger than in HURDAT as
well, due to available observations from HWM and COADS. There was no change to the
extratropical transition phase or to the dissipation of this hurricane.
References:
Fernandez-Partagas, J. J., 1966: The "Unrecorded" Hurricane of October 1945. Monthly
Weather Review, 94, 475-480.
R.D. Fletcher, 1955: Computation of Maximum Winds in Hurricanes. Bulletin of the
American Meteorological Society, 36, 6, pp. 346-350.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
1945 Additional Notes:
1) A large occluded low was located over the north central Atlantic on 23 May. There was
one observed gale with this system (35 kt) at 00Z on 23 May, and the lowest observed
pressure was 1008 mb also on 23 May. On this day, the system was baroclinic and had a
very large circulation. On the 24th and 25th, the temperature gradient began to relax, but
there was no observed gales or low pressures. By the 26th, the circulation opened up into
a trough, and pressures were rising.
DAY LAT LON STATUS
May 23 37N 53W Extratropical
May 24 37N 50W Extratropical
May 25 36.5N 46.5W Subtropical
May 26 Open trough
2) A general area of low pressure prevailed in the central Caribbean Sea between 24 May
and 29 May. It is not certain that there was a closed circulation at any point during these
days. The 26th and 27th are the days that the system is closest to attaining a closed
circulation. But the wind barbs indicate a very elongated low, almost frontal in nature
(although there is no temperature gradient across the low). Also, there were no gales at all
with this system, and the lowest pressure observed was 1007 mb. The highest wind was
30 kt on the 26th. This was likely a broad area of low pressure that stayed over the
Caribbean for several days.
DAY LAT LON STATUS
May 24 Open wave
May 25 Open wave
May 26 14.5N 77W Broad low
May 27 16.5N 77.5W Broad low
May 28 17N 77.5W Broad low
May 29 Open wave
3) A low associated with the tail end of a front moved into the extreme northeastern Gulf of
Mexico on 18 August. Pressures as low as 1009 mb were recorded by ships as well as by
land stations such as Apalachicola, FL. The low moved inland over the big bend area of
FL on 19 August, and continued northeast. Microfilm and HWM both were consistent in
showing this low. The low never seemed to fully detach from the front, however.
Temperatures were very warm surrounding the low. The highest wind recorded (30 kt)
was off the Atlantic coast east of Jacksonville during the afternoon of the 19th.
DAY LAT LON STATUS
Aug 17 Open
Aug 18 29.5N 84.5W Low
Aug 19 Open
4) Microfilm indicates that a low formed in the central Gulf of Mexico on 29 August. At
00Z on 30 August, a NW wind of 30 kt along with an 1006 mb pressure was recorded by
a ship at 24.8N, 93.2W (micro). The low continued westward, and six hours later there
were wind observations from the south on the east side of the low. Therefore, there is a
good chance that this system was a tropical depression at 00Z on 30 August. When this
system was close to making landfall in northeast Mexico, at 12Z on 30 August, the center
was located near 25N, 97W. Aircraft observations at this time show that the circulation
center was closed and well-defined, confirming the existence of a tropical depression.
Winds of 20 to 30 knots accompanied this depression from 18Z the 29th through landfall,
which occurred between 12Z and 18Z on the 30th. But there were no observed gales.
Dissipation occurred shortly thereafter as the depression moved inland over Mexico. The
highest wind at Brownsville, TX was 30 kt from the east around 14Z (OMR). The winds
shifted at Brownsville from NE to E to SE between 12Z and 16Z (OMR). One-minute
winds of 25 kt or higher occurred at least once in each hour in Brownsville for 6
consecutive hours from 14Z to 20Z (OMR). 0.19" of precipitation fell at Brownsville
with this depression. It is interesting to note that a rainbow was observed at Brownsville
at 12Z on the 30th (OMR). The pressure at Brownsville at 12Z was 1011 mb, but the
minimum pressure at Brownsville, which likely occurred a couple of hours later, is
unknown.
DAY LAT LON STATUS
Aug 29 Open
Aug 30 25.2N 97.2W Tropical depression
Aug 31 Dissipated
5) An extratropical low on 3 September was located over the northeastern Atlantic Ocean.
This low moved south, then drifted around and moved eastward. Subtropical
characteristics were gradually attained, but there were no observed gales at any point with
this system.
DAY LAT LON STATUS
Sep 3 46N 23W Extratropical
Sep 4 41N 25W Extratropical
Sep 5 39N 25W Extratropical
Sep 6 40.5N 17.5W Subtropical
Sep 7 43N 16.5W Subtropical
Sep 8 Dissipated
6) A small low formed from a dissipating stationary front on 8 September just off the North
Carolina coast. This low remained stationary through 10 September. On the 11th, it
moved northward to east of Nantucket. There were no observed gales associated with
this system. The highest wind was 30 kt from the SSE, which occurred on 10 September
at 15Z at 36N, 70W. There were not any pressures of 1005 or lower until the 11th north
of 40N, and these low pressures were accompanied by 20-25 kt winds on that day. The
lowest pressure was 1004 mb at 11Z of the 11th. At this time, the small low was in the
warm sector of an approaching extratropical cyclone, so environmental pressures were
low. The pressure-wind relationship of 1004 mb = 36 kt is assumed to be invalid for this
case.
DAY LAT LON STATUS
Sep 8 35.5N 73.5W Tropical depression
Sep 9 35N 74W Tropical depression
Sep 10 36N 73W Tropical depression
Sep 11 41N 68.5W Tropical depression
7) A low may have broken off from the tail end of a dissipating stationary front in the
eastern Bay of Campeche on 15 September. From the 15th to the 16th, the pressures along
the Mexican coast of the western Bay of Campeche dropped as much as 7 mb. There is
not enough evidence to know for sure if there was a closed low, but there is enough
evidence to make a rough guess of the position if the low was indeed closed. The highest
observed wind was 10 kt and the lowest pressure was 1010 mb.
DAY LAT LON STATUS
Sep 15 15 93.5 Low
Sep 16 16.5N 97W Low
Sep 17 inland in central Mexico and dissipated
8) An extratropical low formed along a front on 26 September near 40N, 37.5W. The low
broke off from the front and attained either subtropical or tropical characteristics on the
27th. On the 27th, the highest observed wind was 25 kt and the lowest pressure was 1010
mb. A new approaching cold front from the west merged with the low and provided the
low with renewed baroclinicity. A wind speed of 65 kt from the north was recorded at
21Z on the 28th, and several other gales were recorded. These winds are all associated
with the frontal passage, and the temperatures drop significantly behind the front. On the
30th, the same low is still left behind, with no fronts plotted on HWM, but there is still a
temperature gradient across the low, and there are no observed gales on the 30th.
DAY LAT LON STATUS
Sep 26 40N 37.5W Extratropical
Sep 27 38.5N 40.5W Subtropical depression
Sep 28 36N 34.5W Extratropical
Sep 29 37.5N 35W Extratropical
Sep 30 41.5N 33.5W Extratropical
9) A small, closed area of low pressure developed on 26 September in the area of the
Caribbean Sea just north of Honduras. Pressures fell in the area as the low deepened a
few millibars from the 26th to the 28th. On the 28th, the low moved just inland on the
coast of Honduras, but maintained itself as a closed low through the 30th. The lowest
observed pressure was 1004 mb, but there were low environmental pressures. The
highest observed wind was 25 kt. It is interesting to note that HWM plots a tropical
storm symbol on the 27th. This low was likely a tropical depression because the wind
observations support a small, closed low, but there were no gales.
DAY LAT LON STATUS
Sep 26 17.5N 85.5W Tropical depression
Sep 27 17.5N 86W Tropical depression
Sep 28 15.5N 86W Tropical depression
Sep 29 15N 85W Tropical depression
Sep 30 15.5N 86W Tropical depression
10) A low began to form in association with a front on 4 October in the northeastern Atlantic.
The low was closed by 5 October, but it was attended by weak winds near the broad
circulation center. The low was mostly occluded by 6 October, and there was not a large
temperature gradient across the low on the 6th or 7th. The circulation was very broad, and
there were no observed gales through October 8th. The lowest observed pressure was
1012 mb through the 8th. By the 8th, baroclinicity returned, and the extratropical low
moved off slowly to the northeast.
DAY LAT LON STATUS
Oct 5 36N 33W Extratropical
Oct 6 36N 33W Extratropical
Oct 7 36.5N 29.5W Subtropical
Oct 8 42.5N 27.5W Extratropical
11) A closed low formed on 19 October near Miami and the Bahamas, possibly associated
with a front. On the 19th, the temperature gradient across the low from the Bahamas to
Tampa was 13 degrees. On the 20th, the baroclinicity may have lessened, and this system
may have been a 30 kt tropical depression. On both the 19th and 20th, the circulation was
very tight and compact like a tropical system, which is why this system is analyzed as a
tropical depression on both the 19th and 20th. There were several 30 kt wind observations
on the 20th, but there were no gales at any point. On 21 October, the circulation began to
get larger and the low was becoming extratropical as it moved quickly off to the
northeast. It should be noted that this low is tracked in the MWR Tracks for Centers of
Cyclones October 1945 map from the 19th to the 22nd. The positions on the MWR map
follow the positions in HWM fairly closely.
DAY LAT LON STATUS
Oct 19 24.5N 78W Tropical depression
Oct 20 29.5N 72.5W Tropical depression
Oct 21 34.5N 62.5W Becoming extratropical
Oct 22 39N 51W Extratropical