Statement of Problem:
The final "best-tracks" are prepared by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) hurricane
specialists at the conclusion of every Atlantic and eastern north Pacific tropical cyclone.
These tracks represent the best estimate of tropical position, intensity and
status every six hours during its life cycle. They are based on a comprehensive
analysis of all available observational data. Once completed, these tracks are added to
the historical tropical cyclone database for each basin. These files (1851 to the
present for the Atlantic, 1949 to the present for the eastern north Pacific) are used at
NHC for verification of forecasts and other internal applications. They are also used
extensively by the research, academic and insurance communities, as well as the
media and the public.
The best-track files are not static, but rather represent the best current estimates for
tropical cyclone track and intensity, given the observations and science available at the
time. Newly acquired observations, re-interpretation, or re-analysis may indicate
changes to these tracks. Such changes must be dealt with in an organized and well-documented manner.
Vision:
To have the most accurate tropical cyclone best-tracks based on observations and
sound science.
Mission:
Insure that proposed changes to the best-track files are consistent with contemporary
science.
Success Criteria:
Accurate best-track files which withstand scientific scrutiny.
Scope of Authority/Limitations:
The committee will have the authority to change the best-track files.
Termination Date:
None.
Team Membership: