Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
25 October 2005 0000 UTC
Wilma.

Quicktime movie of AVN DLM wind model forecast
Quicktime movie of DLM wind data increment

TRACK AND INTENSITY PERFORMANCE
TRACK (km)
MODEL	12 h	24 h	36 h	48 h	60 h	72 h	84 h	96 h	108 h	120 h
AVNN	83	83
AVNO	90	47
%IMP	-8%	43%
GFNO	58	99	261
GFDL	74	145	386
%IMP	-28%	-46%	-48%
INTENSITY (kt)
MODEL	12 h	24 h	36 h	48 h	60 h	72 h	84 h	96 h	108 h	120 h
AVNN	-29	3
AVNO	-30	3
%IMP	-3%	0%
GFNO	-3	12	7
GFDL	-6	13	6
%IMP	-100%	8%	14%

Figure 1. NCEP 850 - 200 hPa mean wind analysis for 25 October 2005 0000 UTC (Hurricane Wilma).

Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN and GFDL models initialized on 25 October 2005 0000 UTC.

Figure 3. Initial condition differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 25 October 2005 0000 UTC.

Figure 4. 12-h forecast differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 25 October 2005 0000 UTC.