Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
24 October 2005 1800 UTC
Wilma.

Quicktime movie of AVN DLM wind model forecast
Quicktime movie of DLM wind data increment

TRACK AND INTENSITY PERFORMANCE
TRACK (km)
MODEL	12 h	24 h	36 h	48 h	60 h	72 h	84 h	96 h	108 h	120 h
AVNN	43	37	314	531
AVNO	69	101	41	264
%IMP	-60%	-173%	87%	50%
GFNO	37	108	174	594
GFDL	79	155	300	761
%IMP	-114%	-44%	-72%	-28%
INTENSITY (kt)
MODEL	12 h	24 h	36 h	48 h	60 h	72 h	84 h	96 h	108 h	120 h
AVNN	-33	-12	3	-1
AVNO	-30	-8	1	2
%IMP	9%	33%	67%	-100%
GFNO	-23	-10	4	17
GFDL	-23	-15	10	11
%IMP	0%	-50%	-250%	35%

Figure 1. NCEP 850 - 200 hPa mean wind analysis for 24 October 2005 1800 UTC (Hurricane Wilma).

Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN and GFDL models initialized on 24 October 2005 1800 UTC.

Figure 3. Initial condition differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 24 October 2005 1800 UTC.

Figure 4. 12-h forecast differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 24 October 2005 1800 UTC.