Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
24 October 2005 0600 UTC
Wilma.


Quicktime movie of AVN DLM wind model forecast
Quicktime movie of DLM wind data increment


TRACK AND INTENSITY PERFORMANCE

TRACK (km)
MODEL12 h24 h36 h48 h60 h72 h84 h96 h108 h120 h
AVNN 31100155225416
AVNO 29 39 47 33 96
%IMP 6%61%70%85%77%
GFNO 51 79130155533
GFDL 23 29 84 55468
%IMP55%63%35%67%12%
INTENSITY (kt)
MODEL12 h24 h36 h48 h60 h72 h84 h96 h108 h120 h
AVNN-36-32-10 -5 3
AVNO-25-30 -5 -2 3
%IMP31% 6%50%60% 0%
GFNO-13-14-10 3 6
GFDL-10-12 -8 -6 -5
%IMP23%14%20%-100%17%

Landfall forecasts

24/1030 UTC 25.9N 81.7W near Cape Romano, FL 4.5 h into the forecast
MODELLATLONTIMEERRORLOCATION
AVNN 25.9881.76 5.0 10.7Marco Island, FL
AVNO26.0281.83 5.0 18.6Marco Island, FL
%IMP 0% -74%
GFNO26.0281.84 5.0 19.3Marco Island, FL
GFDL26.1481.78 5.0 27.8Naples, FL
%IMP 0% -44%

Figure 1. NCEP 850 - 200 hPa mean wind analysis for 24 October 2005 0600 UTC (Hurricane Wilma).

Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN and GFDL models initialized on 24 October 2005 0600 UTC.

Figure 3. Initial condition differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 24 October 2005 0600 UTC.

Figure 4. 12-h forecast differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 24 October 2005 0600 UTC.