Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
24 October 2005 0000 UTC
Wilma.


Quicktime movie of AVN DLM wind model forecast
Quicktime movie of DLM wind data increment


TRACK AND INTENSITY PERFORMANCE

TRACK (km)
MODEL12 h24 h36 h48 h60 h72 h84 h96 h108 h120 h
AVNN 80 36149189252
AVNO 55 29116120196
%IMP31%19%22%37%22%
GFNO 91115184238394
GFDL 67104138214462
%IMP26%10%25%10%-17%
INTENSITY (kt)
MODEL12 h24 h36 h48 h60 h72 h84 h96 h108 h120 h
AVNN-31-41-29 0 -8
AVNO-25-32-25 4 -4
%IMP19%22%14%und%50%
GFNO 4-26 -2 2 7
GFDL -3-22 -2 13 13
%IMP25%15% 0%-550%-86%

Landfall forecasts

24/1030 UTC 25.9N 81.7W near Cape Romano, FL 10.5 h into the forecast
MODELLATLONTIMEERRORLOCATION
AVNN 26.2081.80 12.0 34.8Naples, FL
AVNO25.8981.68 11.5 2.3Marco Island, FL
%IMP 33% 93%
GFNO25.8881.63 12.5 7.3Marco Island, FL
GFDL25.8881.32 12.5 38.0Marco Island, FL
%IMP 0%-421%

Figure 1. NCEP 850 - 200 hPa mean wind analysis for 24 October 2005 0000 UTC (Hurricane Wilma).

Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN and GFDL models initialized on 24 October 2005 0000 UTC.

Figure 3. NCEP Global Ensemble Prediction System track forecasts for all cyclones in the Atlantic basin initialized from 22 October 2005 0600 UTC to 23 October 2005 0000 UTC, showing the tracks of Hurricane Wilma.

Figure 4. Ensemble perturbation variance at the nominal sampling time 24 October 2005 0000 UTC from the previous day NCEP ensemble forecast. The green circles represent the dropwindsonde locations.

Figure 5. Variance explained within the verification region (large red circle) for observations taken at the sampling time 24 October 2005 0000 UTC from the Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter run from the previous day NCEP ensemble forecast. The green circles represent the dropwindsonde locations.

Figure 6. Adjoint-Derived Steering Sensitivity Vector for observations taken at the sampling time 24 October 2005 0000 UTC. The green circles represent the dropwindsonde locations. [not available]

Figure 7. NOGAPS Singular Vector for observations taken at the sampling time 24 October 2005 0000 UTC. The green circles represent the dropwindsonde locations.

Figure 8. Initial condition differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 24 October 2005 0000 UTC. The circles represent the dropwindsonde locations.

Figure 9. 20-h forecast differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 24 October 2005 0000 UTC.