Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
23 October 2005 1800 UTC
Wilma.
Quicktime movie of AVN DLM wind model
forecast
Quicktime movie of DLM wind data
increment
| TRACK (km) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
| AVNN | 23 | 45 | 89 | 190 | 446 | 960 | | | |
| AVNO | 75 | 106 | 190 | 178 | 441 | 883 | | |
| %IMP | -226% | -136% | -123% | 6% | 1% | 8% | | | |
| GFNO | 59 | 97 | 136 | 251 | 562 | 1143 | | | |
| GFDL | 35 | 73 | 86 | 193 | 385 | 862 | | | |
| %IMP | 41% | 25% | 37% | 23% | 31% | 25% | | | |
| INTENSITY (kt)
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
| AVNN | -36 | -32 | -30 | -16 | -7 | 0 | | | |
| AVNO | -30 | -23 | -31 | -15 | -4 | 1 | | | |
| %IMP | 17% | 28% | -3% | 6% | 43% | und% | | | |
| GFNO | -15 | -14 | -11 | -6 | 6 | 5 | | | |
| GFDL | -11 | -13 | -10 | -8 | 11 | 9 | | | |
| %IMP | 27% | 7% | 9% | -33% | -83% | -80% | | | |
| | ||||||||||
| 24/1030 UTC 25.9N 81.7W near Cape Romano, FL 16.5 h into the forecast | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
| AVNN | 26.01 | 81.76 | 16.0 | 13.6 | Marco Island, FL
| AVNO | 26.15 | 81.73 | 15.0 | 27.9 | Naples, FL
| %IMP | -200% | -105%
| GFNO | 25.76 | 81.33 | 18.5 | 40.1 | Marco Island, FL
| GFDL | 25.83 | 81.44 | 18.0 | 27.1 | Marco Island, FL
| %IMP | 25% | 32%
| | ||||
Figure 1. NCEP 850 - 200 hPa mean wind analysis for 23 October 2005 1800 UTC (Hurricane Wilma).
Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN and GFDL models initialized on 23 October 2005 1800 UTC.
Figure 3. Initial condition differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 23 October 2005 1800 UTC.
