Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
22 October 2005 1800 UTC
Wilma.

Quicktime movie of AVN DLM wind model forecast
Quicktime movie of DLM wind data increment

TRACK AND INTENSITY PERFORMANCE
TRACK (km)
MODEL	12 h	24 h	36 h	48 h	60 h	72 h	84 h	96 h	108 h	120 h
AVNN	30	62	81	132	205	427	612	834
AVNO	33	85	135	178	370	634	1104	1487
%IMP	-10%	-37%	-67%	-35%	-80%	-48%	-80%	-78%
GFNO	15	85	127	162	228	441	885	1093
GFDL	21	61	64	82	129	316	818	1262
%IMP	-40%	28%	50%	49%	43%	28%	8%	-15%
INTENSITY (kt)
MODEL	12 h	24 h	36 h	48 h	60 h	72 h	84 h	96 h	108 h	120 h
AVNN	-27	-24	-32	-31	-37	-20	5	11
AVNO	-14	-10	-19	-29	-39	-20	-19	-21
%IMP	48%	58%	41%	6%	-5%	0%	-280%	-91%
GFNO	-17	-22	-29	-17	-21	-15	2	25
GFDL	-12	-8	-23	-13	-18	-16	-6	15
%IMP	29%	64%	21%	24%	14%	-7%	-200%	40%

Landfall forecasts

24/1030 UTC 25.9N 81.7W near Cape Romano, FL 40.5 h into the forecast
MODEL LAT LON TIME ERROR LOCATION

AVNN 26.86 82.03 42.5 111.6 Port Charlotte, FL
AVNO 27.06 82.44 41.5 148.4 Port Charlotte, FL
%IMP 50% -33%

GFNO 25.95 81.64 44.0 8.2 Marco Island, FL
GFDL 26.11 81.68 42.5 23.4 Naples, FL
%IMP 43% -185%

Landfall forecasts
24/1030 UTC 25.9N 81.7W near Cape Romano, FL 40.5 h into the forecast
MODEL	LAT	LON	TIME	ERROR	LOCATION
AVNN	26.86	82.03	42.5	111.6	Port Charlotte, FL
AVNO	27.06	82.44	41.5	148.4	Port Charlotte, FL
%IMP			50%	-33%
GFNO	25.95	81.64	44.0	8.2	Marco Island, FL
GFDL	26.11	81.68	42.5	23.4	Naples, FL
%IMP			43%	-185%

Figure 1. NCEP 850 - 200 hPa mean wind analysis for 22 October 2005 1800 UTC (Hurricane Wilma).

Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN and GFDL models initialized on 22 October 2005 1800 UTC.

Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
22 October 2005 1800 UTC
Wilma.

TRACK AND INTENSITY PERFORMANCE

Landfall forecasts

Figure 1. NCEP 850 - 200 hPa mean wind analysis for 22 October 2005 1800 UTC (Hurricane Wilma).

Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN and GFDL models initialized on 22 October 2005 1800 UTC.

Figure 3. Initial condition differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 22 October 2005 1800 UTC.

Figure 4. 12-h forecast differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 22 October 2005 1800 UTC.

Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for 22 October 2005 1800 UTC Wilma.

TRACK AND INTENSITY PERFORMANCE

Landfall forecasts

Figure 1. NCEP 850 - 200 hPa mean wind analysis for 22 October 2005 1800 UTC (Hurricane Wilma).

Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN and GFDL models initialized on 22 October 2005 1800 UTC.

Figure 3. Initial condition differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 22 October 2005 1800 UTC.

Figure 4. 12-h forecast differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 22 October 2005 1800 UTC.

Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
22 October 2005 1800 UTC
Wilma.