Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
22 October 2005 0600 UTC
Wilma.


Quicktime movie of AVN DLM wind model forecast
Quicktime movie of DLM wind data increment


TRACK AND INTENSITY PERFORMANCE

TRACK (km)
MODEL12 h24 h36 h48 h60 h72 h84 h96 h108 h120 h
AVNN 33 30 62101164381609479499
AVNO 47 73147174247460726637509
%IMP-42%-143%-183%-72%-51%-21%-19%-23%-2%
GFNO 46 611632864748431174882612
GFDL 53 68140202327606 817608541
%IMP-15%-11%14%29%31%28%30%31%12%
INTENSITY (kt)
MODEL12 h24 h36 h48 h60 h72 h84 h96 h108 h120 h
AVNN-29-24-25-37-40-43-22 -4 11
AVNO-16-21-20-30-46-41-19 -4 9
%IMP45%12%20%19%15% 5%14% 0%18%
GFNO-12-26-30-41-23-27 20 1 21
GFDL -1-21-26-36 -7-27 -6 5 31
%IMP97%19%13%12%70% 0%70%-400%-48%

Landfall forecasts

24/1030 UTC 25.9N 81.7W near Cape Romano, FL 52.5 h into the forecast
MODELLATLONTIMEERRORLOCATION
AVNN 26.2981.91 55.5 48.1Bonita Springs, FL
AVNO26.6781.86 58.0 87.0Cape Coral, FL
%IMP -83% -81%
GFNO25.9281.39 63.5 31.1Marco Island, FL
GFDL26.1081.83 59.0 25.7Naples, FL
%IMP 41% 17%

Figure 1. NCEP 850 - 200 hPa mean wind analysis for 22 October 2005 0600 UTC (Hurricane Wilma).

Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN and GFDL models initialized on 22 October 2005 0600 UTC.

Figure 3. Initial condition differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 22 October 2005 0600 UTC.

Figure 4. 12-h forecast differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 22 October 2005 0600 UTC.