Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
21 October 2005 0000 UTC
Wilma.
Quicktime movie of AVN DLM wind model
forecast
Quicktime movie of DLM wind data
increment
| TRACK (km) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
| AVNN | 53 | 84 | 84 | 98 | 190 | 332 | 468 | 668 | 1153 | 1273
| AVNO | 53 | 117 | 156 | 197 | 320 | 514 | 717 | 1117 | 1667 | 2117
| %IMP | 0% | -34% | -86% | -101% | -68% | -55% | -53% | -67% | -45% | -67%
| GFNO | 57 | 113 | 168 | 265 | 425 | 657 | 1031 | 1639 | 2646 | 3386
| GFDL | 43 | 99 | 130 | 182 | 295 | 482 | 840 | 1310 | 2172 | 2746
| %IMP | 25% | 12% | 23% | 31% | 31% | 27% | 19% | 20% | 18% | 19%
| INTENSITY (kt)
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
| AVNN | -66 | -64 | -49 | -38 | -38 | -42 | -40 | -46 | -32 | -2
| AVNO | -45 | -66 | -52 | -40 | -45 | -54 | -54 | -46 | -38 | 3
| %IMP | 32% | -3% | -6% | -5% | -18% | -29% | -35% | 0% | -19% | -50%
| GFNO | -27 | -36 | -29 | -23 | -27 | -38 | -46 | -63 | -36 | -12
| GFDL | -9 | -25 | -23 | -20 | -26 | -37 | -42 | -53 | -14 | 9
| %IMP | 66% | 31% | 21% | 13% | 4% | 3% | 9% | 16% | 61% | 25%
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| 21/2145 UTC 20.6N 86.8W on Cozumel, Mexico, 21.75 h into the forecast | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
| AVNN | 20.26 | 86.97 | 13.5 | 41.7 | Celerain, Qintana Roo, Mexico
| AVNO | 20.27 | 87.40 | 17.5 | 72.4 | Tulum, Qintana Roo, Mexico
| %IMP | 48% | -74%
| GFNO | 20.14 | 87.46 | 19.0 | 85.7 | Tulum, Qintana Roo, Mexico
| GFDL | 20.24 | 87.41 | 15.0 | 75.1 | Tulum, Qintana Roo, Mexico
| %IMP | -145% | 12%
|
22/0330 UTC 20.8N 86.9W near Puerto Morelos, Mexico 27.5 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
| AVNN | 20.47 | 87.23 | 17.0 | 50.2 | Playa del Carmen, Qintana Roo, Mexico
| AVNO | 20.27 | 87.40 | 17.5 | 42.8 | Tulum, Qintana Roo, Mexico
| %IMP | 5% | 15%
| GFNO | 20.14 | 87.46 | 19.0 | 78.6 | Tulum, Qintana Roo, Mexico
| GFDL | 20.24 | 87.41 | 15.0 | 93.7 | Tulum, Qintana Roo, Mexico
| %IMP | -47% | -19%
|
24/1030 UTC 25.9N 81.7W near Cape Romano, FL 82.5 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
| AVNN | 25.96 | 81.52 | 95.0 | 19.2 | Marco Island, FL
| AVNO | 26.30 | 81.86 | 106.0 | 47.2 | Bonita Springs, FL
| %IMP | -88% | -149%
| GFNO | No landfall forecast
| GFDL | 24.60 | 81.75 | 118.0 | 144.5 | Key West, FL
| %IMP |
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Figure 1. NCEP 850 - 200 hPa mean wind analysis for 21 October 2005 0000 UTC (Hurricane Wilma.).
Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN and GFDL models initialized on 21 October 2005 0000 UTC.
Figure 3. NCEP Global Ensemble Prediction System track forecasts for all cyclones in the Atlantic basin initialized from 19 October 2005 0600 UTC to 20 October 2005 0000 UTC, showing the tracks of Hurricane Wilma.
Figure 4. Ensemble perturbation variance at the nominal sampling time 21 October 2005 0000 UTC from the previous day NCEP ensemble forecast. The green circles represent the dropwindsonde locations.
Figure 5. Variance explained within the verification region (large red circle) for observations taken at the sampling time 21 October 2005 0000 UTC from the Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter run from the previous day NCEP ensemble forecast. The green circles represent the dropwindsonde locations. [none available]
Figure 6. Adjoint-Derived Steering Sensitivity Vector for observations taken at the sampling time 21 October 2005 0000 UTC. The green circles represent the dropwindsonde locations. [not available]
Figure 7. NOGAPS Singular Vector for observations taken at the sampling time 21 October 2005 0000 UTC. The green circles represent the dropwindsonde locations.
Figure 8. Initial condition differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 21 October 2005 0000 UTC. The circles represent the dropwindsonde locations.
