Quicktime movie of AVN DLM wind model
forecast
Quicktime movie of DLM wind data
increment
TRACK (km) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
AVNN | 11 | 53 | 76 | 133 | 144 | 297 | 496 | 715 | 1104 | 1589
| AVNO | 24 | 66 | 96 | 152 | 182 | 341 | 490 | 802 | 1134 | 1651
| %IMP | -118% | -25% | -26% | -14% | -26% | -15% | 1% | -12% | -3% | -4%
| GFNO | 31 | 42 | 62 | 106 | 175 | 356 | 644 | 1089 | 1817 | 2581
| GFDL | 52 | 63 | 104 | 123 | 205 | 356 | 586 | 1014 | 1700 | 2431
| %IMP | -68% | -50% | -68% | -15% | -17% | 0% | 9% | 7% | 6% | 6%
| INTENSITY (kt)
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
| AVNN | -69 | -69 | -59 | -37 | -39 | -46 | -54 | -41 | -43 | -19
| AVNO | -43 | -48 | -53 | -36 | -43 | -44 | -56 | -37 | -43 | -6
| %IMP | 38% | 30% | 10% | 3% | -10% | 4% | -4% | 10% | 0% | 68%
| GFNO | -31 | -27 | -30 | -22 | -29 | -28 | -54 | -50 | -45 | 0
| GFDL | -31 | -28 | -32 | -15 | -30 | -35 | -51 | -44 | -32 | -2
| %IMP | 0% | -4% | -7% | 32% | -3% | -25% | 6% | 12% | 29% | und%
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21/2145 UTC 20.6N 86.8W on Cozumel, Mexico, 27.75 h into the forecast | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
AVNN | 20.29 | 87.38 | 28.5 | 69.5 | Tulum, Qintana Roo, Mexico
| AVNO | 20.28 | 86.99 | 20.0 | 40.7 | Tulum, Qintana Roo, Mexico
| %IMP | -933% | 41%
| GFNO | 20.23 | 87.37 | 22.5 | 72.2 | Tulum, Qintana Roo, Mexico
| GFDL | 20.25 | 87.41 | 26.0 | 74.5 | Tulum, Qintana Roo, Mexico
| %IMP | 59% | -3%
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22/0330 UTC 20.8N 86.9W near Puerto Morelos, Mexico 33.5 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
| AVNN | 20.29 | 87.38 | 28.5 | 75.5 | Tulum, Qintana Roo, Mexico
| AVNO | 20.48 | 87.27 | 23.0 | 52.4 | Tulum, Qintana Roo, Mexico
| %IMP | -110% | 31%
| GFNO | 20.42 | 87.28 | 28.5 | 57.8 | Tulum, Qintana Roo, Mexico
| GFDL | 20.25 | 87.41 | 26.0 | 80.9 | Tulum, Qintana Roo, Mexico
| %IMP | -50% | -40%
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24/1030 UTC 25.9N 81.7W near Cape Romano, FL 88.5 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
| AVNN | 26.03 | 81.72 | 105.0 | 14.6 | Marco Island, FL
| AVNO | 26.16 | 81.84 | 106.0 | 32.1 | Naples, FL
| %IMP | 52% | 88%
| GFNO | No landfall forecast
| GFDL | No landfall forecast
| %IMP |
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