Quicktime movie of AVN DLM wind model
forecast
Quicktime movie of DLM wind data
increment
TRACK (km) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
AVNN | 77 | 76 | 137 | 132 | 153 | 258 | 444 | 728 | 1050 | 1657
| AVNO | 24 | 76 | 106 | 71 | 108 | 177 | 293 | 435 | 565 | 892
| %IMP | 69% | 0% | 23% | 46% | 29% | 31% | 34% | 40% | 46% | 46%
| GFNO | 31 | 94 | 142 | 165 | 220 | 348 | 581 | 926 | 1497 | 2394
| GFDL | 52 | 96 | 149 | 151 | 189 | 326 | 505 | 841 | 1334 | 2211
| %IMP | -68% | -2% | -5% | 8% | 14% | 6% | 13% | 9% | 11% | 8%
| INTENSITY (kt)
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
| AVNN | -73 | -69 | -72 | -61 | -48 | -46 | -57 | -46 | -47 | -36
| AVNO | -48 | -56 | -63 | -46 | -35 | -31 | -38 | -34 | -46 | -33
| %IMP | 34% | 19% | 12% | 26% | 27% | 33% | 33% | 26% | 2% | 8%
| GFNO | -30 | -38 | -44 | -37 | -28 | -31 | -41 | -45 | -51 | -38
| GFDL | -28 | -24 | -45 | -32 | -25 | -25 | -37 | -44 | -49 | -27
| %IMP | 7% | 27% | -3% | 14% | 11% | 19% | 10% | 2% | 4% | 29%
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21/2145 UTC 20.6N 86.8W on Cozumel, Mexico, 33.75 h into the forecast | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
AVNN | 20.06 | 87.46 | 28.5 | 91.3 | Tulum, Qintana Roo, Mexico
| AVNO | 20.26 | 87.42 | 28.0 | 74.8 | Tulum, Qintana Roo, Mexico
| %IMP | -10% | 18%
| GFNO | 20.09 | 87.47 | 26.0 | 89.9 | Tulum, Qintana Roo, Mexico
| GFDL | 20.00 | 87.47 | 26.0 | 96.5 | Tulum, Qintana Roo, Mexico
| %IMP | 0% | -7%
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22/0330 UTC 20.8N 86.9W near Puerto Morelos, Mexico 39.5 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
| AVNN | 20.06 | 87.46 | 28.5 | 91.3 | Tulum, Qintana Roo, Mexico
| AVNO | 20.26 | 87.42 | 28.0 | 80.8 | Tulum, Qintana Roo, Mexico
| %IMP | -5% | 12%
| GFNO | 20.09 | 87.47 | 26.0 | 98.7 | Tulum, Qintana Roo, Mexico
| GFDL | 20.00 | 87.47 | 26.0 | 106.9 | Tulum, Qintana Roo, Mexico
| %IMP | 0% | -8%
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24/1030 UTC 25.9N 81.7W near Cape Romano, FL 94.5 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
| AVNN | 25.30 | 81.13 | 116.5 | 87.8 | Flamingo, FL
| AVNO | 25.97 | 81.63 | 105.0 | 10.5 | Marco Island, FL
| %IMP | 52% | 88%
| GFNO | No landfall forecast
| GFDL | No landfall forecast
| %IMP |
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