Quicktime movie of AVN DLM wind model
forecast
Quicktime movie of DLM wind data
increment
TRACK (km) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
AVNN | 80 | 137 | 117 | 89 | 53 | 67 | 56 | 132 | 224 | 300
| AVNO | 46 | 130 | 156 | 147 | 109 | 199 | 191 | 328 | 493 | 728
| %IMP | 42% | 5% | -33% | -65% | -106% | -197% | -248% | -148% | -120% | -142%
| GFNO | 22 | 70 | 99 | 127 | 146 | 171 | 252 | 440 | 891 | 1419
| GFDL | 46 | 107 | 113 | 127 | 86 | 70 | 129 | 244 | 391 | 447
| %IMP | -109% | -53% | -14% | 0% | 41% | 59% | 49% | 45% | 156 | 68%
| INTENSITY (kt)
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
| AVNN | -72 | -69 | -69 | -70 | -53 | -36 | -33 | -31 | -19 | -47
| AVNO | -55 | -56 | -70 | -73 | -58 | -43 | -43 | -45 | -40 | -55
| %IMP | 24% | 19% | -1% | -4% | -9% | -19% | -30% | -45% | -111% | -11%
| GFNO | -16 | -22 | -33 | -44 | -32 | -13 | -7 | -9 | -12 | -45
| GFDL | -18 | -14 | -29 | -48 | -38 | -23 | -27 | -26 | -28 | -40
| %IMP | -13% | 36% | 12% | -9% | -19% | -77% | -286% | 189% | -133% | 11%
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21/2145 UTC 20.6N 86.8W on Cozumel, Mexico, 45.75 h into the forecast | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
AVNN | 20.22 | 87.44 | 34.0 | 78.9 | Tulum, Qintana Roo, Mexico
| AVNO | 19.79 | 87.53 | 30.0 | 117.9 | Vijia Chica, Qintana Roo, Mexico
| %IMP | -34% | -49%
| GFNO | 20.40 | 86.89 | 32.5 | 24.1 | Cozumel, Qintana Roo, Mexico
| GFDL | 20.22 | 87.01 | 30.5 | 47.5 | Celerain, Qintana Roo, Mexico
| %IMP | -15% | -97%
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22/0330 UTC 20.8N 86.9W near Puerto Morelos, Mexico 51.5 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
| AVNN | 20.22 | 87.44 | 34.0 | 85.5 | Tulum, Qintana Roo, Mexico
| AVNO | 19.79 | 87.53 | 30.0 | 130.0 | Vijia Chica, Qintana Roo, Mexico
| %IMP | -23% | -52%
| GFNO | 20.62 | 87.05 | 35.0 | 23.4 | Playa del Carmen, Qintana Roo, Mexico
| GFDL | 20.42 | 87.30 | 34.5 | 59.3 | Tulum, Qintana Roo, Mexico
| %IMP | -3% | -153%
|
24/1030 UTC 25.9N 81.7W near Cape Romano, FL 106.5 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
| AVNN | 25.60 | 81.27 | 112.0 | 54.4 | Chokoloskee, FL
| AVNO | No landfall forecast
| %IMP |
| GFNO | 25.90 | 81.69 | 94.0 | 111.1 | Marco Island, FL
| GFDL | 24.62 | 81.66 | 113.5 | 142.3 | Key West, FL
| %IMP | 44% | -28%
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