Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
20 October 2005 0000 UTC
Wilma.


Quicktime movie of AVN DLM wind model forecast
Quicktime movie of DLM wind data increment


TRACK AND INTENSITY PERFORMANCE

TRACK (km)
MODEL12 h24 h36 h48 h60 h72 h84 h96 h108 h120 h
AVNN 80137117 89 53 67 56132224300
AVNO 46130156147109199191328493728
%IMP42% 5%-33%-65%-106%-197%-248%-148%-120%-142%
GFNO 22 70 991271461712524408911419
GFDL 46107113127 86 70129244391 447
%IMP-109%-53%-14% 0%41%59%49%45%15668%
INTENSITY (kt)
MODEL12 h24 h36 h48 h60 h72 h84 h96 h108 h120 h
AVNN-72-69-69-70-53-36-33-31-19-47
AVNO-55-56-70-73-58-43-43-45-40-55
%IMP24%19%-1%-4%-9%-19%-30%-45%-111%-11%
GFNO-16-22-33-44-32-13 -7 -9-12-45
GFDL-18-14-29-48-38-23-27-26-28-40
%IMP-13%36%12%-9%-19%-77%-286%189%-133%11%

Landfall forecasts

21/2145 UTC 20.6N 86.8W on Cozumel, Mexico, 45.75 h into the forecast
MODELLATLONTIMEERRORLOCATION
AVNN 20.2287.44 34.0 78.9Tulum, Qintana Roo, Mexico
AVNO19.7987.53 30.0117.9Vijia Chica, Qintana Roo, Mexico
%IMP -34% -49%
GFNO20.4086.89 32.5 24.1Cozumel, Qintana Roo, Mexico
GFDL20.2287.01 30.5 47.5Celerain, Qintana Roo, Mexico
%IMP -15% -97%
22/0330 UTC 20.8N 86.9W near Puerto Morelos, Mexico 51.5 h into the forecast
MODELLATLONTIMEERRORLOCATION
AVNN 20.2287.44 34.0 85.5Tulum, Qintana Roo, Mexico
AVNO19.7987.53 30.0130.0Vijia Chica, Qintana Roo, Mexico
%IMP -23% -52%
GFNO20.6287.05 35.0 23.4Playa del Carmen, Qintana Roo, Mexico
GFDL20.4287.30 34.5 59.3Tulum, Qintana Roo, Mexico
%IMP -3% -153%
24/1030 UTC 25.9N 81.7W near Cape Romano, FL 106.5 h into the forecast
MODELLATLONTIMEERRORLOCATION
AVNN 25.6081.27112.0 54.4Chokoloskee, FL
AVNONo landfall forecast
%IMP
GFNO25.9081.69 94.0111.1Marco Island, FL
GFDL24.6281.66113.5142.3Key West, FL
%IMP 44% -28%

Figure 1. NCEP 850 - 200 hPa mean wind analysis for 20 October 2005 0000 UTC (Hurricane Wilma).

Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN and GFDL models initialized on 20 October 2005 0000 UTC.

Figure 3. Initial condition differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 20 October 2005 0000 UTC.

Figure 4. 12-h forecast differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 20 October 2005 0000 UTC.