Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
19 October 2005 1200 UTC
Wilma.
Quicktime movie of AVN DLM wind model
forecast
Quicktime movie of DLM wind data
increment
| TRACK (km) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
| AVNN | 64 | 71 | 139 | 83 | 53 | 10 | 104 | 157 | 235 | 429
| AVNO | 54 | 119 | 171 | 140 | 106 | 21 | 91 | 89 | 104 | 143
| %IMP | 16% | -68% | -23% | -69% | -100% | -110% | 12% | 43% | 56% | 67%
| GFNO | 39 | 64 | 128 | 137 | 137 | 109 | 83 | 141 | 220 | 244
| GFDL | 62 | 95 | 130 | 136 | 135 | 114 | 129 | 250 | 466 | 719
| %IMP | -59% | -48% | -2% | 1% | 1% | -5% | -55% | -77% | -112% | -195%
| INTENSITY (kt)
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
| AVNN | -87 | -73 | -67 | -78 | -69 | -52 | -29 | -25 | -13 | -21
| AVNO | -67 | -53 | -65 | -73 | -73 | -58 | -34 | -31 | -28 | -27
| %IMP | 23% | 27% | 3% | 6% | -6% | -12% | -17% | -24% | -115% | -29%
| GFNO | -8 | -2 | -17 | -39 | -49 | -36 | -26 | -24 | -32 | -26
| GFDL | -15 | -10 | -22 | -39 | -52 | -38 | -24 | -28 | -31 | -41
| %IMP | -88% | -500% | -29% | 0% | -6% | -6% | 8% | -17% | 3% | -58%
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| 21/2145 UTC 20.6N 86.8W on Cozumel, Mexico, 57.75 h into the forecast | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
| AVNN | 20.51 | 87.21 | 54.0 | 43.8 | Playa del Carmen, Qintana Roo, Mexico
| AVNO | 19.77 | 87.47 | 39.5 | 115.7 | Vijia Chico, Qintana Roo, Mexico
| %IMP | -387% | -164%
| GFNO | 20.12 | 87.47 | 44.0 | 87.8 | Tulum, Qintana Roo, Mexico
| GFDL | 19.86 | 87.46 | 43.5 | 107.2 | Zamach, Qintana Roo, Mexico
| %IMP | -4% | -22%
|
22/0330 UTC 20.8N 86.9W near Puerto Morelos, Mexico 63.5 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
| AVNN | 20.51 | 87.21 | 54.0 | 43.8 | Playa del Carmen, Qintana Roo, Mexico
| AVNO | 19.77 | 87.47 | 39.5 | 128.9 | Vijia Chico, Qintana Roo, Mexico
| %IMP | -75% | -194%
| GFNO | 20.12 | 87.47 | 44.0 | 96.1 | Tulum, Qintana Roo, Mexico
| GFDL | 19.86 | 87.46 | 43.5 | 119.6 | Zamach, Qintana Roo, Mexico
| %IMP | -3% | -24%
|
24/1030 UTC 25.9N 81.7W near Cape Romano, FL 118.5 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
| AVNN | 25.73 | 81.35 | 111.0 | 39.8 | Marco Island, FL
| AVNO | 25.45 | 81.10 | 116.0 | 78.2 | Near Flamingo, FL
| %IMP | 67% | -96%
| GFNO | No landfall forecast
| GFDL | No landfall forecast
| %IMP | |
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Figure 1. NCEP 850 - 200 hPa mean wind analysis for 19 October 2005 1200 UTC (Hurricane Wilma).
Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN and GFDL models initialized on 19 October 2005 1200 UTC.
Figure 3. Initial condition differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 19 October 2005 1200 UTC.
