Quicktime movie of AVN DLM wind model
forecast
Quicktime movie of DLM wind data
increment
TRACK (km) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
AVNN | 92 | 103 | 164 | 172 | 100 | 160 | 267 | 500 | 626 | 814
| AVNO | 94 | 111 | 200 | 244 | 241 | 363 | 640 | 1191 | 1948 | 2140
| %IMP | -2% | -8% | -22% | -42% | -141% | -127% | -140% | -138% | -211% | -163%
| GFNO | 31 | 70 | 139 | 163 | 150 | 179 | 240 | 399 | 634 | 1076
| GFDL | 44 | 74 | 161 | 209 | 211 | 289 | 508 | 985 | 1734 | 2389
| %IMP | -42% | -6% | -16% | -28% | -41% | -61% | -112% | -147% | -174% | -122%
| INTENSITY (kt)
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
| AVNN | -96 | -75 | -75 | -71 | -63 | -38 | -22 | -21 | -14 | -32
| AVNO | -77 | -61 | -54 | -52 | -40 | -33 | -8 | -10 | -12 | -32
| %IMP | 20% | 19% | 28% | 27% | 37% | 13% | 64% | 52% | 14% | 0%
| GFNO | -22 | -13 | -22 | -38 | -44 | -35 | -16 | -17 | -13 | -22
| GFDL | -39 | -11 | -24 | -35 | -37 | -27 | -5 | 7 | 0 | -36
| %IMP | -77% | 15% | -9% | 8% | 16% | 23% | 69% | 59% | 100% | -64%
| |
21/2145 UTC 20.6N 86.8W on Cozumel, Mexico, 63.75 h into the forecast | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
AVNN | 20.68 | 86.59 | 44.0 | 23.6 | Punta Molas del Norte, Qintana Roo, Mexico
| AVNO | No landfall forecast
| %IMP | |
| GFNO | 20.39 | 86.86 | 44.5 | 24.2 | Cozumel, Qintana Roo, Mexico
| GFDL | 21.21 | 86.66 | 47.0 | 69.3 | Cancun, Qintana Roo, Mexico
| %IMP | 13% | -186%
|
22/0330 UTC 20.8N 86.9W near Puerto Morelos, Mexico 69.5 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
| AVNN | 20.95 | 86.84 | 49.5 | 17.8 | Cancun, Qintana Roo, Mexico
| AVNO | No landfall forecast
| %IMP | |
| GFNO | 20.70 | 87.00 | 48.0 | 15.2 | Playa del Carmen, Qintana Roo, Mexico
| GFDL | 21.21 | 86.66 | 47.0 | 51.9 | Cancun, Qintana Roo, Mexico
| %IMP | -5% | -241%
|
24/1030 UTC 25.9N 81.7W near Cape Romano, FL 124.5 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
| AVNN | 25.11 | 80.41 | 105.5 | 156.3 | Key Largo, FL
| AVNO | 25.58 | 81.33 | 87.0 | 51.3 | Chokoloskee, FL
| %IMP | -97% | 67%
| GFNO | 25.98 | 81.61 | 105.0 | 102.6 | Marco Island, FL
| GFDL | 26.27 | 81.80 | 91.0 | 42.3 | Naples, FL
| %IMP | -72% | 59%
| |