Quicktime movie of AVN DLM wind model
forecast
Quicktime movie of DLM wind data
increment
TRACK (km) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
AVNN | 44 | 72 | 105 | 212 | 189 | 226 | 403 | 722 | 1111 | 1477
| AVNO | 15 | 22 | 67 | 74 | 70 | 129 | 234 | 471 | 785 | 1034
| %IMP | 66% | 69% | 36% | 65% | 63% | 43% | 42% | 35% | 29% | 30%
| GFNO | 55 | 85 | 100 | 137 | 152 | 133 | 169 | 259 | 413 | 742
| GFDL | 67 | 35 | 67 | 107 | 106 | 137 | 210 | 369 | 592 | 891
| %IMP | -22% | 59% | 33% | 22% | 30% | -3% | -24% | -42% | -43% | -20%
| INTENSITY (kt)
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
| AVNN | -121 | -86 | -75 | -67 | -66 | -45 | -36 | -8 | -8 | -24
| AVNO | -108 | -63 | -49 | -45 | -54 | -46 | -30 | -13 | -13 | -23
| %IMP | 11% | 35% | 39% | 33% | 18% | -2% | 17% | -63% | -63% | 4%
| GFNO | -45 | -15 | -15 | -30 | -39 | -51 | -33 | -7 | -8 | -4
| GFDL | -45 | -19 | -18 | -30 | -38 | -42 | -21 | -8 | 3 | -9
| %IMP | 0% | -27% | -20% | 0% | 3% | 18% | 36% | -14% | 62% | -125%
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21/2145 UTC 20.6N 86.8W on Cozumel, Mexico, 69.75 h into the forecast | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
AVNN | No landfall forecast
| AVNO | 20.61 | 86.59 | 59.0 | 21.9 | Punta Molas del Norte, Qintana Roo, Mexico
| %IMP |
| GFNO | 20.28 | 87.02 | 51.5 | 42.3 | Celerain, Qintana Roo, Mexico
| GFDL | 20.41 | 86.87 | 55.0 | 22.3 | Cozumel, Qintana Roo, Mexico
| %IMP | 19% 47%
|
22/0330 UTC 20.8N 86.9W near Puerto Morelos, Mexico 75.5 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
| AVNN | No landfall forecast
| AVNO | 21.15 | 86.59 | 65.0 | 49.6 | Cancun, Qintana Roo, Mexico
| %IMP |
| GFNO | 20.52 | 87.18 | 54.0 | 42.6 | Palmul, Qintana Roo, Mexico
| GFDL | 20.68 | 87.04 | 58.5 | 19.7 | Playa del Carmen, Qintana Roo, Mexico
| %IMP | 21% 54%
|
24/1030 UTC 25.9N 81.7W near Cape Romano, FL 130.5 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
| AVNN | 24.60 | 81.33 | 94.5 | 149.1 | Marathon, FL
| AVNO | 25.69 | 81.33 | 103.5 | 43.8 | Chokoloskee, FL
| %IMP | 25% | 71%
| GFNO | 26.22 | 81.80 | 113.0 | 36.9 | Naples, FL
| GFDL | 26.33 | 81.87 | 108.5 | 50.7 | Bonita Springs, FL
| %IMP | -26% | -37%
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