Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
18 October 2005 1800 UTC
Wilma.
Quicktime movie of AVN DLM wind model
forecast
Quicktime movie of DLM wind data
increment
| TRACK (km) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
| AVNN | 67 | 102 | 137 | 226 | 300 | 385 | 498 | 772 | 1250 | 1729
| AVNO | 49 | 84 | 111 | 222 | 274 | 357 | 520 | 845 | 1417 | 2077
| %IMP | 27% | 18% | 19% | 2% | 9% | 7% | -4% | -9% | -13% | -20%
| GFNO | 44 | 89 | 111 | 201 | 234 | 327 | 475 | 780 | 1337 | 1994
| GFDL | 65 | 77 | 54 | 126 | 200 | 260 | 396 | 666 | 1191 | 1896
| %IMP | -48% | 13% | 51% | 37% | 15% | 20% | 17% | 15% | 11% | 5%
| INTENSITY (kt)
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
| AVNN | -111 | -97 | -79 | -71 | -73 | -55 | -45 | -13 | -8 | -11
| AVNO | -109 | -91 | -75 | -63 | -60 | -52 | -35 | -10 | -2 | -8
| %IMP | 2% | 6% | 5% | 11% | 18% | 5% | 22% | 23% | 75% | 27%
| GFNO | -42 | -21 | -13 | -22 | -30 | -21 | -19 | 2 | 7 | -6
| GFDL | -50 | -22 | -20 | -25 | -24 | -20 | -21 | 8 | 9 | 0
| %IMP | -19% | -5% | -54% | -14% | 20% | 5% | -11% | -200% | -29% | 100%
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| 21/2145 UTC 20.6N 86.8W on Cozumel, Mexico, 75.75 h into the forecast | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
| AVNN | 21.89 | 85.03 | 59.0 | 232.7 | Near La Fe, Pinar del Rio, Cuba
| AVNO | No landfall forecast
| %IMP | | |
| GFNO | No landfall forecast
| GFDL | No landfall forecast
| %IMP | | |
|
22/0330 UTC 20.8N 86.9W near Puerto Morelos, Mexico 81.5 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
| AVNN | 21.89 | 85.03 | 59.0 | 228.3 | Near La Fe, Pinar del Rio, Cuba
| AVNO | No landfall forecast
| %IMP | | |
| GFNO | No landfall forecast
| GFDL | No landfall forecast
| %IMP | | |
|
24/1030 UTC 25.9N 81.7W near Cape Romano, FL 136.5 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
| AVNN | 24.75 | 81.12 | 94.5 | 140.4 | Marathon, FL
| AVNO | 25.26 | 81.12 | 93.5 | 91.8 | Flamingo, FL
| %IMP | -2% | 35%
| GFNO | 26.19 | 81.86 | 95.5 | 36.0 | Naples, FL
| GFDL | 26.69 | 81.79 | 99.5 | 88.2 | Cape Coral, FL
| %IMP | 10% | -145% |
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Figure 1. NCEP 850 - 200 hPa mean wind analysis for 18 October 2005 2000 UTC (Hurricane Wilma).
Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN and GFDL models initialized on 18 October 2005 2000 UTC.
Figure 3. Initial condition differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 18 October 2005 2000 UTC.
