Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
15 October 2002 1200 UTC
Tropical Depression 14.
Quicktime movie of AVN DLM wind model
forecast
Quicktime movie of DLM wind data
increment
| TRACK (km) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| AVNN | 100. | 187. |
| AVNO | 114. | 117. |
| %IMP | -14% | 37%
|
| GFNO |
| GFAL | 185. | 231.
| %IMP
| INTENSITY (kt)
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| AVNN | -5. | -8. |
| AVNO | 2. | -4. |
| %IMP | 60% | 50%
|
| GFNO
| GFAL | 13. | 32.
| %IMP
|
| SHNO | 2. | 7. |
| SHIP | 3. | 9. |
| %IMP | -50% | -29%
|
| DSNO | 2. | 5. |
| DSHP | 3. | 6. |
| %IMP | -50% | -20%
| | ||||||||||||||||||
| 16/1600 UTC 22.0N 80.7W Near Cienfuegos, Cuba 28 h into the forecast | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 21.63 | 78.90 | 25.5 | 190.2 | Jucaro, Ciego de Avila, Cuba
| AVAL | 21.54 | 79.25 | 28.5 | 158.1 | Tunas de Zaza, Sancti Spiritus, Cuba
| %IMP | 80% | 17%
|
| GFNO
| GFAL | 21.00 | 78.50 | 36.0 | 253.1 | Punta Macurijes, Camaguey, Cuba
| %IMP
| | ||
Figure 1. NCEP 850 - 150 hPa mean wind analysis for 15 October 2002 1200 UTC (Tropical Depression Fourteen).
Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN and GFDL models initialized on 15 October 2002 1200 UTC. The best track is shown in black.
Figure 3. Initial condition differences in the 850 - 150 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 15 October 2002 1200 UTC.
