Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
15 October 2002 0600 UTC
Tropical Depression 14.


Quicktime movie of AVN DLM wind model forecast
Quicktime movie of DLM wind data increment


TRACK AND INTENSITY PERFORMANCE

TRACK (km)
MODEL12 h24 h36 h48 h60 h72 h84 h96 h108 h120 h
AVNN61.156.302.
AVNO101.142.205.
%IMP-66%9%32%
GFNO
GFAL48.199.320.
%IMP
INTENSITY (kt)
MODEL12 h24 h36 h48 h60 h72 h84 h96 h108 h120 h
AVNN-1.2.7.
AVNO3.1.4.
%IMP-200%50%43%
GFNO
GFAL11.39.61.
%IMP
SHNO4.9.20.
SHIP4.10.22.
%IMP0%-11%-10%
DSNO4.5.16.
DSHP4.6.17.
%IMP0%-20%-6%

Landfall forecasts

16/1600 UTC 22.0N 80.7W Near Cienfuegos, Cuba 34 h into the forecast
MODELLATLONTIMEERRORLOCATION
AVNN21.7179.7227.0106.1 Trinidad, Sancti Spiritus, Cuba
AVAL21.5879.4730.0135.2 Tunas de Zaza, Sancti Spiritus, Cuba
%IMP43%-27%
GFNO
GFAL21.5078.7029.5213.7 Jucaro, Ciego de Avila, Cuba
%IMP

Figure 1. NCEP 850 - 150 hPa mean wind analysis for 15 October 2002 0600 UTC (Tropical Depression Fourteen).

Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN and GFDL models initialized on 15 October 2002 0600 UTC. The best track is shown in black.

Figure 3. Initial condition differences in the 850 - 150 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 15 October 2002 0600 UTC.

Figure 4. 12-h forecast differences in the 850 - 150 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 15 October 2002 0600 UTC.