Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
15 October 2002 0000 UTC
Tropical Depression 14.
Quicktime movie of AVN DLM wind model
forecast
Quicktime movie of DLM wind data
increment
| TRACK (km) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| AVNN | 70. | 127. | 207. |
| AVNO | 108. | 211. | 226. |
| %IMP | -54% | -66% | -9%
|
| GFNO |
| GFAL | 25. | 166. | 198.
| %IMP
| INTENSITY (kt)
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| AVNN | -2. | 3. | -1. |
| AVNO | 2. | 9. | 4. |
| %IMP | 0% | -200% | -300%
|
| GFNO
| GFAL | 0. | 16. | 45.
| %IMP
|
| SHNO | 5. | 11. | 17. |
| SHIP | 6. | 14. | 22. |
| %IMP | -20% | -27% | -29%
|
| DSNO | 5. | 11. | 12. |
| DSHP | 6. | 14. | 15. |
| %IMP | -20% | -27% | -25%
| | ||||||||||||||||||
| 16/1600 UTC 22.0N 80.7W Near Cienfuegos, Cuba 40 h into the forecast | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 21.70 | 79.93 | 32.5 | 86.1 | Casilda, Sancti Spiritus, Cuba
| AVAL | 21.55 | 79.33 | 33.0 | 149.9 | Tunas de Zaza, Sancti Spiritus, Cuba
| %IMP | 7% | -74%
|
| GFNO
| GFAL | 21.52 | 78.57 | 39.5 | 226.2 | Jucaro, Ciego de Avila, Cuba
| %IMP
| | ||
Figure 1. NCEP 850 - 200 hPa mean wind analysis for 15 October 2002 0000 UTC (Tropical Depression Fourteen).
Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN and GFDL models initialized on 15 October 2002 0000 UTC. The best track is shown in black.
Figure 3. Ensemble perturbation variance at the nominal sampling time 15 October 2002 0000 UTC from the previous day NCEP ensemble forecast. The triangles represent the dropwindsonde locations.
Figure 4. Initial condition differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 15 October 2002 0000 UTC. The triangles represent the dropwindsonde locations.
