Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
14 October 2002 1800 UTC
Tropical Depression 14.
Quicktime movie of AVN DLM wind model
forecast
Quicktime movie of DLM wind data
increment
| TRACK (km) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| AVNN | 190. | 274. | 403. | 683. |
| AVNO | 252. | 341. | 469. | 764. |
| %IMP | -33% | -24% | -16% | -12%
|
| GFNO |
| GFAL | 103. | 179. | 296. | 594.
| %IMP
|
| AVNN | 3. | 4. | 0. | 9. |
| AVNO | 3. | 5. | 3. | 9. |
| %IMP | 0% | -25% | und% | 0%
| INTENSITY (kt)
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| GFNO
| GFAL | -1. | 8. | 8. | 35.
| %IMP
|
| SHNO | 0. | 7. | 14. | 24. |
| SHIP | -1. | 7. | 15. | 25. |
| %IMP | und% | 0% | -7% | -4%
|
| DSNO | 0. | 7. | 9. | 19. |
| DSHP | -1. | 7. | 10. | 20. |
| %IMP | und% | 0% | -11% | -5%
| | ||||||||||||||||||
| 16/1600 UTC 22.0N 80.7W Near Cienfuegos, Cuba 46 h into the forecast | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 22.02 | 80.89 | 29.5 | 19.7 | Playa Giron, Matanzas, Cuba
| AVAL | 22.27 | 81.20 | 27.5 | 59.6 | Bahia de Cochinos, Matanzas, Cuba
| %IMP | -12% | -101%
|
| GFNO
| GFAL | 22.12 | 81.22 | 32.5 | 55.2 | Bahia de Cochinos, Matanzas, Cuba
| %IMP
| | ||
Figure 1. NCEP 850 - 140 hPa mean wind analysis for 14 October 2002 1800 UTC (Tropical Depression Fourteen).
Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN and GFDL models initialized on 14 October 2002 1800 UTC. The best track is shown in black.
Figure 3. Initial condition differences in the 850 - 140 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 14 October 2002 1800 UTC.
