Summary Tables
During the 1997 and 1998 hurricane seasons, a total of 27 synoptic surveillance missions have been flown. The following is a summary of the completed assessments.


Table 1
Track forecast errors for the no dropwindsonde GFDL control (GFNO), the all dropwindsonde run (GFAL), and the run with only targeted observations (GFTG), and the percent improvement of the latter two over the control. Asterisks mark the errors that are statistically different from the control at the 95% level.
Forecast
time (h)
Cases GFNO
Error (km)
GFAL Error (km)
(% Improvement)
GFTG Error (km)
(% Improvement)
122464.452.0(19%)*51.5(20%)*
242499.694.8( 5%)83.9(16%)*
3624150.1139.4( 7%)127.8(15%)*
4822186.9193.0(-3%)166.4(11%)*
7221354.0369.7(-4%)329.5( 7%)
8421507.9513.3(-1%)473.5( 7%)
9619644.8606.6( 6%)557.0(14%)*
12014835.6819.8( 2%)796.6( 5%)

Table 2
Track forecast errors for the no dropwindsonde VBAR control (VBNO), the all dropwindsonde run (VBAL), and the run with only targeted observations (VBTG), and the percent improvement of the latter two over the control. Asterisks mark the errors that are statistically different from the control at the 95% level.
Forecast
time (h)
Cases VBNO
Error (km)
VBAL Error (km)
(% Improvement)
VBTG Error (km)
(% Improvement)
122266.463.7( 4%)62.7( 6%)*
2422116.6119.2(-2%)112.5( 4%)*
3622164.8163.3( 1%)159.6( 3%)
4820228.7228.6( 0%)228.2( 0%)
7220426.9446.6(-5%)424.0( 1%)
8420574.3572.9( 0%)560.4( 2%)
9618732.7715.5( 2%)709.5( 3%)
10817920.4866.8( 6%)869.0( 6%)*
12015913.1847.4( 7%)839.2( 8%)

Table 3
Track forecast errors for the no dropwindsonde GSM control (GSNO), the all dropwindsonde run (GSAL), and the run with only targeted observations (GSTG), and the percent improvement of the latter two over the control. Asterisks mark the errors that are statistically different from the control at the 95% level.
Forecast
time (h)
Cases GSNO
time (h)
GSAL Error (km)
Error (km)
GSTG Error (km)
(% Improvement)
122497.192.1( 5%)83.6(14%)*
2423141.8139.3( 2%)131.2( 7%)
3623204.3192.8( 6%)186.0( 9%)*
4822279.6263.8( 6%)253.2( 9%)*
7220433.4442.1(-2%)402.6( 7%)*
8419561.3590.2(-5%)539.6( 4%)
9617747.5767.3(-3%)730.6( 2%)
10817904.3912.6(-1%)893.5( 1%)
120151082.61142.5(-6%)1107.8(-2%)

Table 4
Track forecast errors for the no dropwindsonde MEAN control (MNNO), the all dropwindsonde run (MNAL), and the run with only targeted observations (MNTG), and the percent improvement of the latter two over the control. Asterisks mark the errors that are statistically different from the control at the 95% level.
Forecast
time (h)
Cases GFNO
Error (kn)
GFAL Error (kn)
(% Improvement)
GFTG Error (kn)
(% Improvement)
122461.053.7(12%)50.8(17%)*
2424104.292.3(11%)*91.4(12%)*
3624146.4128.3(12%)*129.8(11%)*
4822188.3180.3( 4%)181.3( 4%)
7221302.1305.9(-1%)303.6( 0%)
8421418.1424.1(-1%)425.1(-2%)
9619601.3591.7( 2%)592.4( 1%)
10818911.5836.8( 8%)835.5( 8%)*
12018953.4970.8(-2%)971.3(-2%)

Table 5
Intensity forecast errors for the no dropwindsonde GFDL control (GFNO), the all dropwindsonde run (GFAL), and the run with only targeted observations (GFTG), and the percent improvement of the latter two over the control. Asterisks mark the errors that are statistically different from the control at the 95% level.
Forecast
time (h)
Cases MNNO
Error (km)
MNAL Error (km)
(% Improvement)
MNTG Error (km)
(% Improvement)
122416.617.0( -2%)16.9( -2%)
242416.415.5( 5%)16.7( -2%)
362418.318.3( 0%)18.5( -1%)
482213.514.4( -7%)14.1( -4%)
721111.211.0( 2%)10.8( 4%)
841113.912.5( 10%)13.3( 4%)
961917.415.2( 13%)*15.9( 9%)
1201414.415.6( -8%)16.4(-14%)