Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
24 September 2005 1200 UTC
Rita.


Quicktime movie of AVN DLM wind model forecast
Quicktime movie of DLM wind data increment


TRACK AND INTENSITY PERFORMANCE

TRACK (km)
MODEL12 h24 h36 h48 h60 h72 h84 h96 h108 h120 h
AVNN 69 72231
AVNO 67 86220
%IMP 3%-19% 5%
GFNONo forecast available
GFDLNo forecast available
%IMP
INTENSITY (kt)
MODEL12 h24 h36 h48 h60 h72 h84 h96 h108 h120 h
AVNN-10 -5 -5
AVNO -8 -5 -5
%IMP20% 0% 0%
GFNONo forecast available
GFDLNo forecast available
%IMP

Figure 1. NCEP 850 - 240 hPa mean wind analysis for 24 September 2005 1200 UTC (Hurricane Rita).

Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN and GFDL models initialized on 24 September 2005 1200 UTC.

Figure 3. Initial condition differences in the 850 - 240 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 24 September 2005 1200 UTC.

Figure 4. 12-h forecast differences in the 850 - 240 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 24 September 2005 1200 UTC.