Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
23 September 2005 1200 UTC
Rita.
Quicktime movie of AVN DLM wind model
forecast
Quicktime movie of DLM wind data
increment
| TRACK (km) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
| AVNN | 59 | 139 | 186 | 238 | 413 | | | | |
| AVNO | 22 | 56 | 167 | 245 | 455 | | | | |
| %IMP | 63% | 60% | 10% | 3% | -10% | | | | |
| GFNO | 53 | 121 | 239 | 364 | 589 | | | | |
| GFDL | 49 | 133 | 208 | 359 | 664 | | | | |
| %IMP | 8% | -10% | 13% | 1% | -13% | | | | |
| INTENSITY (kt)
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
| AVNN | -31 | -9 | -3 | -4 | -4 | | | | |
| AVNO | -9 | -3 | 2 | -3 | -4 | | | | |
| %IMP | 71% | 67% | 33% | 25% | 0% | | | | |
| GFNO | 9 | 36 | 23 | 10 | 9 | | | | |
| GFDL | -6 | 32 | 22 | 8 | 2 | | | | |
| %IMP | 33% | 12% | 4% | 20% | 78% | | | | |
| | ||||||||||
| 24/0730 UTC 29.7N 93.7W between Johnson's Bayou, LA, and High Island 19.5 h into the forecast | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
| AVNN | 29.48 | 94.56 | 25.5 | 86.6 | Galveston, TX
| AVNO | 29.70 | 94.05 | 21.0 | 33.8 | Sabine Pass, TX
| %IMP | 75% | 61%
| GFNO | 29.55 | 94.64 | 24.5 | 92.3 | High Island, TX
| GFDL | 29.60 | 94.22 | 26.5 | 51.4 | High Island, TX
| %IMP | -40% | 44%
| | ||||
Figure 1. NCEP 850 - 230 hPa mean wind analysis for 23 September 2005 1200 UTC (Hurricane Rita).
Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN and GFDL models initialized on 23 September 2005 1200 UTC.
Figure 3. NCEP Global Ensemble Prediction System track forecasts for all cyclones in the Atlantic basin initialized from 21 September 2005 1800 UTC to 22 September 2005 1200 UTC, showing the tracks of Hurricane Rita.
Figure 4. Ensemble perturbation variance at the nominal sampling time 23 September 2005 1200 UTC from the previous day NCEP ensemble forecast. The green circles represent the dropwindsonde locations.
Figure 5. Variance explained within the verification region (large red circle) for observations taken at the sampling time 23 September 2005 1200 UTC from the Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter run from the previous day NCEP ensemble forecast. The green circles represent the dropwindsonde locations. [not available]
Figure 6. Adjoint-Derived Steering Sensitivity Vector for observations taken at the sampling time 23 September 2005 1200 UTC. The green circles represent the dropwindsonde locations.
Figure 7. NOGAPS Singular Vector for observations taken at the sampling time 23 September 2005 1200 UTC. The green circles represent the dropwindsonde locations. [not available]
Figure 8. Initial condition differences in the 850 - 230 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 23 September 2005 1200 UTC. The circles represent the dropwindsonde locations.
