Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
23 September 2005 0600 UTC
Rita.
Quicktime movie of AVN DLM wind model
forecast
Quicktime movie of DLM wind data
increment
| TRACK (km) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
| AVNN | 11 | 63 | 169 | 237 | 337 | 671 | | | |
| AVNO | 15 | 44 | 102 | 224 | 310 | 684 | | | |
| %IMP | 27% | 30% | 40% | 5% | 8% | -2% | | | |
| GFNO | 15 | 59 | 168 | 311 | 496 | 941 | | | |
| GFDL | 23 | 82 | 158 | 265 | 458 | 912 | | | |
| %IMP | -53% | -39% | 6% | 15% | 8% | 3% | | | |
| INTENSITY (kt)
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
| AVNN | -49 | -27 | -2 | -5 | -7 | -5 | | | |
| AVNO | -23 | -25 | 2 | 0 | -6 | -4 | | | |
| %IMP | 53% | 7% | 0% | 100% | 14% | 20% | | | |
| GFNO | 0 | 4 | 16 | 11 | 3 | 3 | | | |
| GFDL | -12 | -3 | 25 | 15 | -2 | 1 | | | |
| %IMP | und% | 25% | -56% | -36% | 233 | 67% | | | |
| | ||||||||||
| 24/0730 UTC 29.7N 93.7W between Johnson's Bayou, LA, and High Island 25.5 h into the forecast | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
| AVNN | 29.54 | 94.49 | 30.0 | 78.3 | High Island, TX
| AVNO | 29.67 | 93.98 | 28.5 | 27.2 | High Island, TX
| %IMP | 33% | 65%
| GFNO | 29.62 | 94.24 | 30.0 | 52.9 | High Island, TX
| GFDL | 29.67 | 93.97 | 31.5 | 70.5 | Sabine Pass, TX
| %IMP | -33% | -25%
| | ||||
Figure 1. NCEP 850 - 230 hPa mean wind analysis for 23 September 2005 0600 UTC (Hurricane Rita).
Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN and GFDL models initialized on 23 September 2005 0600 UTC.
Figure 3. Initial condition differences in the 850 - 230 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 23 September 2005 0600 UTC.
