Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
22 September 2005 1800 UTC
Rita.


Quicktime movie of AVN DLM wind model forecast
Quicktime movie of DLM wind data increment


TRACK AND INTENSITY PERFORMANCE

TRACK (km)
MODEL12 h24 h36 h48 h60 h72 h84 h96 h108 h120 h
AVNN 24 30 56141221380869
AVNO 11 23 39135234344834
%IMP54%23%30% 4%-6% 9% 4%
GFNO 32 63104217328495973
GFDL 10 45 56144264438907
%IMP69%29%46%34%20%12% 7%
INTENSITY (kt)
MODEL12 h24 h36 h48 h60 h72 h84 h96 h108 h120 h
AVNN-59-44-33 -4 -7 -9 -8
AVNO-41-27-15 8 1 -8 -6
%IMP31%39%55%-100%86%11%25%
GFNO -1 7 1 27 13 4 5
GFDL-10 -4 -5 21 9 3 2
%IMP-900%43%-400%22%31%25%60%

Landfall forecasts

24/0730 UTC 29.7N 93.7W between Johnson's Bayou, LA, and Sabine Pass 37.5 h into the forecast
MODELLATLONTIMEERRORLOCATION
AVNN 29.6494.17 42.0 45.9Sabine Pass, TX
AVNO29.7093.94 41.5 23.2Sabine Pass, TX
%IMP 11% 49%
GFNO29.3894.83 43.0114.9Galveston, TX
GFDL29.6794.17 41.5 45.5Sabine Pass, TX
%IMP 27% 60%

Figure 1. NCEP 850 - 220 hPa mean wind analysis for 22 September 2005 1800 UTC (Hurricane Rita).

Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN and GFDL models initialized on 22 September 2005 1800 UTC.

Figure 3. Initial condition differences in the 850 - 220 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 22 September 2005 1800 UTC.

Figure 4. 12-h forecast differences in the 850 - 220 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 22 September 2005 1800 UTC.