Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
22 September 2005 0600 UTC
Rita.
Quicktime movie of AVN DLM wind model
forecast
Quicktime movie of DLM wind data
increment
| TRACK (km) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
| AVNN | 52 | 78 | 121 | 190 | 290 | 466 | 725 | 1304 | |
| AVNO | 10 | 23 | 30 | 78 | 187 | 341 | 566 | 1114 | |
| %IMP | 81% | 71% | 75% | 59% | 36% | 27% | 22% | 15% | |
| GFNO | 60 | 92 | 116 | 140 | 217 | 336 | 541 | 996 | |
| GFDL | 30 | 83 | 113 | 122 | 149 | 222 | 388 | 823 | |
| %IMP | 50% | 10% | 3% | 13% | 31% | 34% | 28% | 17% | |
| INTENSITY (kt)
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
| AVNN | -73 | -56 | -48 | -29 | 10 | 4 | -4 | -5 | |
| AVNO | -57 | -38 | -30 | -13 | 12 | 8 | 3 | 4 | |
| %IMP | 22% | 32% | 37% | 55% | -20% | -100% | 25% | 20% | |
| GFNO | -11 | -7 | -9 | -3 | 21 | 5 | 0 | 2 | |
| GFDL | -18 | -8 | -8 | -4 | 26 | 4 | 3 | -2 | |
| %IMP | -64% | -14% | 11% | -33% | -24% | 20% | und% | 0% | |
| | ||||||||||
| 24/0730 UTC 29.7N 93.7W between Johnson's Bayou, LA, and Sabine Pass 49.5 h into the forecast | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
| AVNN | 28.90 | 95.36 | 55.5 | 183.8 | Freeport, TX
| AVNO | 29.54 | 94.39 | 55.5 | 69.0 | High Island, TX
| %IMP | 0% | 72%
| GFNO | 29.20 | 95.02 | 53.5 | 139.3 | Galveston, TX
| GFDL | 29.57 | 94.51 | 55.0 | 79.5 | High Island, TX
| %IMP | -38% | 43%
| | ||||
Figure 1. NCEP 850 - 220 hPa mean wind analysis for 22 September 2005 0600 UTC (Hurricane Rita).
Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN and GFDL models initialized on 22 September 2005 0600 UTC.
Figure 3. Initial condition differences in the 850 - 220 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 22 September 2005 0600 UTC.
