Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
19 September 2005 1800 UTC
Rita.
Quicktime movie of AVN DLM wind model
forecast
Quicktime movie of DLM wind data
increment
| TRACK (km) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
| AVNN | 15 | 51 | 52 | 55 | 60 | 149 | 241 | 330 | 362 | 342
| AVNO | 23 | 92 | 65 | 61 | 23 | 90 | 128 | 136 | 128 | 56
| %IMP | -53% | -80% | -25% | -11% | 62% | 40% | 47% | 58% | 65% | 84%
| GFNO | 23 | 72 | 72 | 55 | 39 | 98 | 141 | 180 | 214 | 264
| GFDL | 15 | 52 | 40 | 15 | 78 | 129 | 182 | 231 | 252 | 277
| %IMP | 35% | 28% | 44% | 73% | -100% | -32% | -29% | -36% | -17% | -5%
| INTENSITY (kt)
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
| AVNN | -32 | -58 | -81 | -115 | -122 | -90 | -76 | -69 | -58 | -1
| AVNO | -25 | -51 | -74 | -107 | -112 | -79 | -67 | -60 | -48 | -7
| %IMP | 22% | 12% | 9% | 7% | 8% | 12% | 12% | 13% | 17% | -600%
| GFNO | 45 | 38 | 10 | -32 | -43 | -16 | -12 | -15 | -10 | -11
| GFDL | 41 | 39 | 9 | -32 | -44 | -20 | -12 | -19 | -12 | -8
| %IMP | 9% | -3% | 10% | 0% | -2% | -25% | 0% | -27% | -20% | 27%
| | ||||||||||
| 24/0730 UTC 29.7N 93.7W between Johnson's Bayou, LA, and Sabine Pass 109.5 h into the forecast | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
| AVNN | No landfall forecast
| AVNO | 29.68 | 94.19 | 115.0 | 47.3 | Sabine Pass, TX
| %IMP
| GFNO | 28.92 | 95.37 | 104.5 | 183.5 | Freeport, TX
| GFDL | 28.69 | 95.81 | 104.5 | 233.4 | Matagorda, TX
| %IMP | 0% | -27%
| | ||||||
Figure 1. NCEP 850 - 200 hPa mean wind analysis for 19 September 2005 1800 UTC (Tropical Storm Rita).
Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN and GFDL models initialized on 19 September 2005 1800 UTC.
Figure 3. Initial condition differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 19 September 2005 1800 UTC.
