Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
19 September 2005 1200 UTC
Rita.
Quicktime movie of AVN DLM wind model
forecast
Quicktime movie of DLM wind data
increment
| TRACK (km) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
| AVNN | 46 | 52 | 74 | 62 | 46 | 78 | 165 | 262 | 305 | 321
| AVNO | 31 | 55 | 84 | 69 | 30 | 82 | 155 | 194 | 201 | 216
| %IMP | 33% | -6% | -14% | -11% | 34% | 5% | 6% | 26% | 34% | 33%
| GFNO | 41 | 81 | 61 | 74 | 42 | 20 | 40 | 80 | 94 | 117
| GFDL | 10 | 72 | 74 | 84 | 60 | 23 | 41 | 82 | 112 | 154
| %IMP | 76% | 11% | -21% | -14% | -43% | -15% | -3% | -3% | -19% | -32%
| INTENSITY (kt)
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
| AVNN | -33 | -43 | -65 | -89 | -120 | -106 | -86 | -76 | -64 | -20
| AVNO | -29 | -38 | -60 | -86 | -113 | -99 | -75 | -69 | -57 | -13
| %IMP | 12% | 12% | 7% | 3% | 6% | 7% | 13% | 9% | 11% | 33%
| GFNO | 23 | 47 | 28 | 3 | -36 | -34 | -15 | -24 | -18 | 0
| GFDL | 14 | 48 | 30 | -4 | -41 | -33 | -20 | -20 | -12 | -5
| %IMP | 39% | -2% | -7% | -33% | -14% | 3% | -33% | 17% | 33% | und%
| | ||||||||||
| 24/0730 UTC 29.7N 93.7W between Johnson's Bayou, LA, and Sabine Pass 115.5 h into the forecast | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
| AVNN | No landfall forecast
| AVNO | No landfall forecast
| %IMP
| GFNO | 29.51 | 94.36 | 112.0 | 67.2 | High Island, TX
| GFDL | 29.53 | 94.32 | 110.5 | 67.8 | High Island, TX
| %IMP | -43% | -1%
| | ||||||||||
Figure 1. NCEP 850 - 200 hPa mean wind analysis for 19 September 2005 1200 UTC (Tropical Storm Rita).
Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN and GFDL models initialized on 19 September 2005 1200 UTC.
Figure 3. NCEP Global Ensemble Prediction System track forecasts for all cyclones in the Atlantic basin initialized from 17 September 2005 0600 UTC to 18 September 2005 1200 UTC, showing the tracks of Tropical Storm Rita.
Figure 4. Ensemble perturbation variance at the nominal sampling time 19 September 2005 1200 UTC from the previous day NCEP ensemble forecast. The green circles represent the dropwindsonde locations.
Figure 5. Variance explained within the verification region (large red circle) for observations taken at the sampling time 19 September 2005 1200 UTC from the Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter run from the previous day NCEP ensemble forecast. The green circles represent the dropwindsonde locations. [not available]
Figure 6. Adjoint-Derived Steering Sensitivity Vector for observations taken at the sampling time 19 September 2005 1200 UTC. The green circles represent the dropwindsonde locations.
Figure 7. NOGAPS Singular Vector for observations taken at the sampling time 19 September 2005 1200 UTC. The green circles represent the dropwindsonde locations. [not available]
Figure 8. Initial condition differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 19 September 2005 1200 UTC. The circles represent the dropwindsonde locations.
