Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
14 September 2005 1200 UTC
Ophelia.


Quicktime movie of AVN DLM wind model forecast
Quicktime movie of DLM wind data increment


TRACK AND INTENSITY PERFORMANCE

TRACK (km)
MODEL12 h24 h36 h48 h60 h72 h84 h96 h108 h120 h
AVNN 30 64113126146142 66 63196210
AVNO 30 43115123161150 73 73109221
%IMP 4%33%-2% 2%-10%-6%-11%-16%44%-5%
GFNO 18 21 35 72122132 67 81313229
GFDL 9 21 48 76183195 98114239256
%IMP50% 0%-37%-6%-50%-48%-46%41%24%-12%
INTENSITY (kt)
MODEL12 h24 h36 h48 h60 h72 h84 h96 h108 h120 h
AVNN-25-21-10 -8-10 -2 2 2 -5-11
AVNO-23-17-11-10 -9 0 3 1 5 -3
%IMP 8%19%-10%-25%10%100%-50%50% 0%73%
GFNO -8 -2 1 21 22 8 6 11 3 -8
GFDL -1 0 3 14 18 5 -2 6 6 -7
%IMP87%100%-200%33%18%37%67%45%-100%12%

Figure 1. NCEP 850 - 200 hPa mean wind analysis for 14 September 2005 1200 UTC (Tropical Storm Ophelia).

Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN and GFDL models initialized on 14 September 2005 1200 UTC.

Figure 3. Initial condition differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 14 September 2005 1200 UTC.

Figure 4. 14-h forecast differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 14 September 2005 1200 UTC.