Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
13 September 2005 1200 UTC
Ophelia.


Quicktime movie of AVN DLM wind model forecast
Quicktime movie of DLM wind data increment


TRACK AND INTENSITY PERFORMANCE

TRACK (km)
MODEL12 h24 h36 h48 h60 h72 h84 h96 h108 h120 h
AVNN 57 92115147246327411381324290
AVNO 44 71128180316369466488515622
%IMP23%23%-11%-22%-28%-13%-13%-28%-59%-114%
GFNO 66103115 92190333445480353346
GFDL 60 85156141221317391439415423
%IMP 9%17%-36%-33%16% 5%12% 9%-17%-22%
INTENSITY (kt)
MODEL12 h24 h36 h48 h60 h72 h84 h96 h108 h120 h
AVNN -5-17-22-22-15 -4 -9 -2 -2 -4
AVNO-12-18-25-24-11 -9 -8 2 4 10
%IMP-140%-6%-14%-9%27%-125%11% 0%-100%-150%
GFNO 3-12-15 -7 4 21 20 10 22 11
GFDL 0-19-23-10 -5 10 17 21 26 16
%IMP100%-58%-53%-43%-25%52%15%-110%-18%-45%

Figure 1. NCEP 850 - 200 hPa mean wind analysis for 13 September 2005 1200 UTC (Tropical Storm Ophelia).

Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN and GFDL models initialized on 13 September 2005 1200 UTC.

Figure 3. Initial condition differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 13 September 2005 1200 UTC.

Figure 4. 13-h forecast differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 13 September 2005 1200 UTC.