Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
12 September 2005 1200 UTC
Ophelia.


Quicktime movie of AVN DLM wind model forecast
Quicktime movie of DLM wind data increment


TRACK AND INTENSITY PERFORMANCE

TRACK (km)
MODEL12 h24 h36 h48 h60 h72 h84 h96 h108 h120 h
AVNN 48 7612314922835565889410671132
AVNO 58 57 9914321836970593611131164
%IMP21%29%20% 4% 4%-4%-7%-5%-4%-3%
GFNO 58100112 66 24113170272403516
GFDL 30 30 48 22 52104144231337407
%IMP48%70%57%67%-117% 8%15%15%16%21%
INTENSITY (kt)
MODEL12 h24 h36 h48 h60 h72 h84 h96 h108 h120 h
AVNN -3 3 4-12-21-16-14 -9-14 -1
AVNO 0 2 -4-15-20-18-13 -9-15 -5
%IMP100%33% 0%-25% 5%-13% 7% 0%-7%-400%
GFNO -1 2 -5-20-12-14 5 13 -3 -4
GFDL 14 2 -1 -5 -7 -7 1 13 5 10
%IMP-1300% 0%80%75%42%50%80% 7%-67%-250%

Figure 1. NCEP 850 - 200 hPa mean wind analysis for 12 September 2005 1200 UTC (Tropical Storm Ophelia).

Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN and GFDL models initialized on 12 September 2005 1200 UTC.

Figure 3. Initial condition differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 12 September 2005 1200 UTC.

Figure 4. 12-h forecast differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 12 September 2005 1200 UTC.