Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
10 September 2005 1800 UTC
Ophelia.


Quicktime movie of AVN DLM wind model forecast
Quicktime movie of DLM wind data increment


TRACK AND INTENSITY PERFORMANCE

TRACK (km)
MODEL12 h24 h36 h48 h60 h72 h84 h96 h108 h120 h
AVNN 19 85174230332389402407421606
AVNO 11 15 96191286345367400449585
%IMP42%82%45%17%14%11% 9% 2%-7% 3%
GFNO 36 67125151198235242230211276
GFDL 9 30 96134203232249296355516
%IMP75%55%23%11%-3% 1%-3%-29%-68%-87%
INTENSITY (kt)
MODEL12 h24 h36 h48 h60 h72 h84 h96 h108 h120 h
AVNN-17 0 1 -3 -2 8 -7 -5 -5 -2
AVNO-17 -5 6 2 1 9 1 -8 -6 1
%IMP 0%und%-400%33%50%-13%86%-60%-20%50%
GFNO 4 7 9 -1 -4 -2-13-24-22-11
GFDL 0 16 10 -1 -1 -6-11-21-19-13
%IMP100%-129%-11% 0%75%-200%15%12%14%-18%

Figure 1. NCEP 850 - 200 hPa mean wind analysis for 10 September 2005 1800 UTC (Hurricane Ophelia).

Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN and GFDL models initialized on 10 September 2005 1800 UTC.

Figure 3. Initial condition differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 10 September 2005 1800 UTC.

Figure 4. 12-h forecast differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 10 September 2005 1800 UTC.