Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
10 September 2005 1200 UTC
Ophelia.


Quicktime movie of AVN DLM wind model forecast
Quicktime movie of DLM wind data increment


TRACK AND INTENSITY PERFORMANCE

TRACK (km)
MODEL12 h24 h36 h48 h60 h72 h84 h96 h108 h120 h
AVNN 38 76 36108183237319430589875
AVNO 58 85 44 89 93129153216290346
%IMP-53%-12%-22%18%49%46%52%50%51%60%
GFNO102116 52 47 69134190279505922
GFDL 91127 70 79 91138211316456679
%IMP11%-9%-35%-68%-32%-3%-11%-13%10%26%
INTENSITY (kt)
MODEL12 h24 h36 h48 h60 h72 h84 h96 h108 h120 h
AVNN-15 -6 7 10 4 5 1 -7 -3 -2
AVNO-12 -8 10 14 2 5 -9-16-20-11
%IMP20%-33%-43%-40%50% 0%-800%-129%-567%-450%
GFNO 3 5 3 5 5 -4 -6-17-10-17
GFDL -2 3 3 7 13 3 -5-24-21-11
%IMP50%40% 0%-40%-160%25%17%-41%-110%35%

Figure 1. NCEP 850 - 200 hPa mean wind analysis for 10 September 2005 1200 UTC (Hurricane Ophelia).

Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN and GFDL models initialized on 10 September 2005 1200 UTC.

Figure 3. Initial condition differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 10 September 2005 1200 UTC.

Figure 4. 12-h forecast differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 10 September 2005 1200 UTC.