Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
09 September 2005 1200 UTC
Ophelia.


Quicktime movie of AVN DLM wind model forecast
Quicktime movie of DLM wind data increment


TRACK AND INTENSITY PERFORMANCE

TRACK (km)
MODEL12 h24 h36 h48 h60 h72 h84 h96 h108 h120 h
AVNN 31 22 52 58157170224217256298
AVNO 40 33 44 35 80122186216221280
%IMP-29%-50%15%40%39%28%17% 0%14% 6%
GFNO 86127165195221287299346364354
GFDL 89132174239304398406445445436
%IMP-3%-4%-5%-23%-38%-39%-26%-29%-22%-23%
INTENSITY (kt)
MODEL12 h24 h36 h48 h60 h72 h84 h96 h108 h120 h
AVNN-18 -8 -8-12 7 5 4 3 -1-19
AVNO-13 0 -7 4 4 11 14 12 8-22
%IMP28%100%12%67%43%-120%-250%-300%-700%-16%
GFNO 7 21 9 -4 13 7 -8-15-31-46
GFDL 15 19 14 6 18 13-10-15-38-47
%IMP-114%10%-56%-50%-38%-86%-25% 0%-23%-2%

Figure 1. NCEP 850 - 200 hPa mean wind analysis for 09 September 2005 1200 UTC (Tropical Storm Ophelia).

Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN and GFDL models initialized on 09 September 2005 1200 UTC.

Figure 3. Initial condition differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 09 September 2005 1200 UTC.

Figure 4. 12-h forecast differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 09 September 2005 1200 UTC.