Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
09 September 2005 0000 UTC
Ophelia.


Quicktime movie of AVN DLM wind model forecast
Quicktime movie of DLM wind data increment


TRACK AND INTENSITY PERFORMANCE

TRACK (km)
MODEL12 h24 h36 h48 h60 h72 h84 h96 h108 h120 h
AVNN 40 0 15 44131212175174146100
AVNO 45 83121108173294271273227199
%IMP-13%und%-707%-145%-32%-39%-55%-57%-55%-99%
GFNO 31 58 80 91142249363418502551
GFDL 62 33 33 45 70137257386516572
%IMP-100%43%59%51%51%47%29% 8%-3%-4%
INTENSITY (kt)
MODEL12 h24 h36 h48 h60 h72 h84 h96 h108 h120 h
AVNN-22-21-25-24-13 -1 0 2 7 3
AVNO-16 -8 0-16 -2 7 10 11 10 7
%IMP27%62%100%33%85%-600%und%-450%-43%-133%
GFNO 15 34 31 15 7 16 8-15-33-40
GFDL 14 34 37 12 -2 18 12-12-31-43
%IMP 7% 0%-19%20%71%-13%-50%20%-6%-8%

Figure 1. NCEP 850 - 200 hPa mean wind analysis for 09 September 2005 0000 UTC (Hurricane Ophelia).

Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN and GFDL models initialized on 09 September 2005 0000 UTC.

Figure 3. NCEP Global Ensemble Prediction System track forecasts for all cyclones in the Atlantic basin initialized from 07 September 2005 0600 UTC to 08 September 2005 0000 UTC, showing the tracks of Hurricane Ophelia.

Figure 4. Ensemble perturbation variance at the nominal sampling time 09 September 2005 0000 UTC from the previous day NCEP ensemble forecast. The green circles represent the dropwindsonde locations.

Figure 5. Variance explained within the verification region (large red circle) for observations taken at the sampling time 09 September 2005 0000 UTC from the Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter run from the previous day NCEP ensemble forecast. The green circles represent the dropwindsonde locations.

Figure 6. Adjoint-Derived Steering Sensitivity Vector for observations taken at the sampling time 09 September 2005 0000 UTC. The green circles represent the dropwindsonde locations.

Figure 7. NOGAPS Singular Vector for observations taken at the sampling time 09 September 2005 0000 UTC. The green circles represent the dropwindsonde locations.

Figure 8. Initial condition differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 09 September 2005 0000 UTC. The circles represent the dropwindsonde locations.

Figure 9. 24-h forecast differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 09 September 2005 0000 UTC.