Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
Hurricane Michelle.

Quicktime movie of DLM wind analyses
Quicktime movie of DLM wind data initial increments

Surveillance flights

October 31, 2001	November 1, 2001
November 2, 2001	November 3, 2001

Assessments for each forecast time at

October 31, 2001				18 Z
November 1, 2001	00 Z	06 Z	12 Z	18 Z
November 2, 2001	00 Z	06 Z	12 Z	18 Z
November 3, 2001	00 Z	06 Z	12 Z	18 Z
November 4, 2001	00 Z	06 Z	12 Z

Figure 1a. Track forecast errors for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN, GFDL, and VBAR models for four Hurricane Michelle synoptic surveillance missions.

Figure 1b. Track forecast improvements for the AVN, GFDL, and VBAR models for the four Hurricane Michelle synoptic surveillance missions.

(a)
(b)

Figure 2. Forecast errors for the landfall of Hurricane Michelle at Cayo Largo, Cuba, in the (a) cross- and (b) along-track directions for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN, GFDL, and VBAR models.

(a)
(b)

Figure 3. Forecast errors for the landfall of Hurricane Michelle at Bahia de Cochinos, Cuba, in the (a) cross- and (b) along-track directions for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN, GFDL, and VBAR models.

(a)
(b)

Figure 4. Forecast errors for the landfall of Hurricane Michelle at Andros Island, Bahamas, in the (a) cross- and (b) along-track directions for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN, GFDL, and VBAR models.

(a)
(b)

Figure 5. Forecast errors for the landfall of Hurricane Michelle at Eleuthera Island, Bahamas, in the (a) cross- and (b) along-track directions for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN, GFDL, and VBAR models.

Return to 2001 assessment page
Return to HRD home page