Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
04 November 2001 1200 UTC
Michelle.
Quicktime movie of AVN DLM wind model forecast Quicktime movie of DLM wind data increment
| TRACK (km) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| AVNN | 108. | 194. | 9999. | 9999. | 9999. | 9999. | 9999. | 9999. | 9999. | 9999.
| AVAL | 84. | 105. | 9999. | 9999. | 9999. | 9999. | 9999. | 9999. | 9999. | 9999.
| %IMP | 22% | 46%
|
| GFNO | 76. | 116. | 340. | 516. | 9999. | 9999. | 9999. | 9999. | 9999. | 9999.
| GFAL | 106. | 158. | 411. | 648. | 9999. | 9999. | 9999. | 9999. | 9999. | 9999.
| %IMP | -39% | -36% | -21% | -26%
|
| VBNO | 51. | 183. | 221. | 201. | 9999. | 9999. | 9999. | 9999. | 9999. | 9999.
| VBAL | 62. | 193. | 231. | 222. | 9999. | 9999. | 9999. | 9999. | 9999. | 9999.
| %IMP | -22% | -5% | -5% | -10%
| INTENSITY (kt)
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| AVNN | -63. | -37. | 9999. | 9999. | 9999. | 9999. | 9999. | 9999. | 9999. | 9999.
| AVAL | -55. | -23. | 9999. | 9999. | 9999. | 9999. | 9999. | 9999. | 9999. | 9999.
| %IMP | 13% | 38%
|
| GFNO | -11. | 27. | 34. | 27. | 9999. | 9999. | 9999. | 9999. | 9999. | 9999.
| GFAL | -7. | 25. | 32. | 25. | 9999. | 9999. | 9999. | 9999. | 9999. | 9999.
| %IMP | 36% | 7% | 6% | 7%
|
| SHNO | 0. | 9. | -4. | -15. | 9999. | 9999. | 9999. | 9999. | 9999. | 9999.
| SHAL | -1. | 8. | -5. | -14. | 9999. | 9999. | 9999. | 9999. | 9999. | 9999.
| %IMP | und | 11% | -25% | 7%
|
| DSNO | -30. | -22. | -35. | -46. | 9999. | 9999. | 9999. | 9999. | 9999. | 9999.
| DSAL | -30. | -22. | -35. | -44. | 9999. | 9999. | 9999. | 9999. | 9999. | 9999.
| %IMP | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4%
| | ||||||||||
04/1800UTC 21.5N 81.8W Cayo Largo, Cuba 06 h into forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 21.44 | 82.33 | 6.0 | 55.2 | Isla de la Juventud, Cuba
| AVAL | 21.64 | 81.56 | 10.5 | 29.3
| %IMP | und | 47%
|
| GFNO | 21.69 | 81.58 | 10.5 | 31.0 | Cayo Largo, Cuba
| GFAL | 21.63 | 81.59 | 11.5 | 26.1 | Cayo Largo, Cuba
| %IMP | -22% | 16%
|
| VBNO | 21.71 | 81.71 | 7.5 | 25.1 | Cayo Largo, Cuba
| VBAL | 21.71 | 81.79 | 7.5 | 23.4 | Cayo Largo, Cuba
| %IMP | 0% | 7%
|
| 04/2300UTC 22.1N 81.2W at Bahia de Cochinos, Cuba 11 h into forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 22.21 | 81.68 | 13.0 | 50.9 | Near Bahia de Cochinos, Matanzas, Cuba
| AVAL | 22.03 | 80.92 | 14.0 | 29.9 | Bahia de Cochinos, Matanzas, Cuba
| %IMP | -33% | 41%
|
| GFNO | 22.05 | 81.11 | 13.0 | 10.8 | Bahia de Cochinos, Matanzas, Cuba
| GFAL | 22.10 | 81.05 | 14.5 | 15.4 | Bahia de Cochinos, Matanzas, Cuba
| %IMP | -75% | -43%
|
| VBNO | 22.16 | 81.44 | 10.5 | 25.6 | Bahia de Cochinos, Matanzas, Cuba
| VBAL | 22.16 | 81.53 | 10.5 | 34.6 | Bahia de Cochinos, Matanzas, Cuba
| %IMP | 0% | -35%
|
| 05/1200UTC 24.3N 78.0W at Andros Island, Bahamas 24 h into forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
|
| AVNN Tracker lost center
| AVAL | 24.45 | 77.76 | 28.0 | 29.5 | Middle Bight, Andros Island, Bahamas
| %IMP
|
| GFNO | 25.29 | 78.44 | 31.0 | 118.6 | Nicholls' Town, Andros Island, Bahamas
| GFAL | 25.45 | 78.90 | 32.5 | 156.7 | Approach to Nicholls' Town, Andros Island, Bahamas
| %IMP | -21% | -32%
|
| VBNO | 25.57 | 78.52 | 30.0 | 150.5 | Approach to Nicholls' Town, Andros Island, Bahamas
| VBAL | 25.56 | 78.61 | 30.0 | 152.9 | Approach to Nicholls' Town, Andros Island, Bahamas
| %IMP
|
| 05/1800UTC 25.4N 76.4W at Eleuthera Island, Bahamas 30 h into forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | Tracker lost center
| AVAL | 25.43 | 76.65 | 32.5 | 25.3 | Lower Bogue, Eleuthera, Bahamas
| %IMP |
|
| GFNO | 26.37 | 77.07 | 40.5 | 126.9 | Snake City, Abaco Island, Bahamas
| GFAL | 26.43 | 77.08 | 44.5 | 133.1 | Snake City, Abaco Island, Bahamas
| %IMP | -38% | -5%
|
| VBNO | 26.35 | 77.21 | 34.5 | 133.0 | The Marls, Abaco Island, Bahamas
| VBAL | 26.43 | 77.14 | 35.0 | 136.2 | The Marls, Abaco Island, Bahamas
| %IMP | -11% | -2%
| | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Figure 1.
NCEP 850 - 200 hPa mean wind analysis for 04 November 2001 1200 UTC
Hurricane Michelle.
Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN, GFDL, and VBAR models initialized on 04 November 2001 1200 UTC. The best track is shown in black.
Figure 3.
Initial condition differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the
no and all dropwindsonde cases
for 04 November 2001 1200 UTC.
