Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
03 November 2001 1800 UTC
Michelle.


Quicktime movie of AVN DLM wind model forecast Quicktime movie of DLM wind data increment


TRACK AND INTENSITY PERFORMANCE

TRACK (km)
MODEL12 h24 h36 h48 h60 h72 h84 h96 h108 h120 h
AVNN74.178.227.271.9999.9999.9999.9999.9999.9999.
AVAL124.186.197.204.9999.9999.9999.9999.9999.9999.
%IMP-68%-4%13%25%
GFNO94.166.313.594.890.1465.9999.9999.9999.9999.
GFAL115.207.348.562.904.1451.9999.9999.9999.9999.
%IMP-22%-25%-11%5%-2%1%
VBNO74.199.302.437.423.458.9999.9999.9999.9999.
VBAL85.187.266.356.304.301.9999.9999.9999.9999.
%IMP-15%6%12%19%28%34%
INTENSITY (kt)
MODEL12 h24 h36 h48 h60 h72 h84 h96 h108 h120 h
AVNN-90.-80.-41.-33.9999.9999.9999.9999.9999.9999.
AVAL-67.-66.-32.-22.9999.9999.9999.9999.9999.9999.
%IMP26%18%22%33%
GFNO-18.-11.30.18.-2.16.9999.9999.9999.9999.
GFAL-15.-14.25.17.-5.11.9999.9999.9999.9999.
%IMP17%-27%17%6%-150%31%
SHNO-7.-12.11.1.-17.-13.9999.9999.9999.9999.
SHAL-7.-12.12.3.-14.-9.9999.9999.9999.9999.
%IMP0%0%-9%-200%18%31%
DSNO-7.-12.-16.-27.-45.9999.9999.9999.9999.9999.
DSAL-7.-12.-16.-26.-43.9999.9999.9999.9999.9999.
%IMP0%0%-9%4%4%

Landfall forecasts

04/1800UTC 21.5N 81.8W Cayo Largo, Cuba 24 h into forecast
MODELLATLONTIMEERRORLOCATION
AVNN21.4883.0927.5133.4 Punta Frances, Isla de la Juventud, Cuba
AVAL21.9483.0028.5133.2 Isla de la Juventud, Cuba
%IMP-29%0%
GFNO21.6783.3325.0159.2 Punta Frances, Isla de la Juventud, Cuba
GFAL22.2083.7024.0210.8 San Juan y Martinez, Pinar del Rio, Cuba
%IMP100%-32%
VBNO22.0583.1731.0154.0 Isla de la Juventud, Cuba
VBAL22.3283.2328.5173.3 Playa Dayaniguas, Pinar del Rio, Cuba
%IMP36%-13%
04/2300UTC 22.1N 81.2W at Bahia de Cochinos, Cuba 29 h into forecast
MODELLATLONTIMEERRORLOCATION
AVNN22.6582.0835.0108.3 Surgidero de Batabano, Habana, Cuba
AVAL22.6681.8335.089.8 Surgidero de Batabano, Habana, Cuba
%IMP0%17%
GFNO22.5283.0329.5191.5 Playa Dayaniguas, Pinar del Rio, Cuba
GFAL22.2083.7024.0257.5 San Juan y Martinez, Pinar del Rio, Cuba
%IMP-900%-34%
VBNO22.6682.5336.5150.1 Guira de Melena, Habana, Cuba
VBAL22.5083.0830.0198.3 NearPlaya Dayaniguas, Pinar del Rio, Cuba
%IMP87%-32%
05/1200UTC 24.3N 78.0W at Andros Island, Bahamas 42 h into forecast
MODELLATLONTIMEERRORLOCATION
AVNN Tracker lost center
AVAL25.1978.2748.5100.9 Nicholls' Town, Andros Island, Bahamas
%IMP
GFNO25.9181.5559.0379.8 Pumpkin Bay, FL
GFAL26.1981.8255.0437.5 North Naples, FL
%IMP24%-15%
VBNO24.6478.3055.048.4 Williams Island, Andros Island, Bahamas
VBAL25.0678.0253.584.5 Nicholls' Town, Andros Island, Bahamas
%IMP18%-75%
05/1800UTC 25.4N 76.4W at Eleuthera Island, Bahamas 48 h into forecast
MODELLATLONTIMEERRORLOCATION
AVNN Tracker lost center
AVAL25.8877.2252.597.9 Southwest Point, Abaco Island, Bahamas
%IMP
GFNO32.3280.66119.0873.4 Parris Island, South Carolina
GFAL32.3580.64114.5875.4 Parris Island, South Carolina
%IMP6%0%
VBNO25.2676.1960.526.2 Governor's Harbour, Eleuthera, Bahamas
VBAL25.4476.6857.028.4 Lower Bogue, Eleuthera, Bahamas
%IMP28%-8%

Figure 1. NCEP 850 - 200 hPa mean wind analysis for 03 November 2001 1800 UTC
Tropical Depression #15.

Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN, GFDL, and VBAR models initialized on 03 November 2001 1800 UTC. The best track is shown in black.

Figure 3. Initial condition differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases
for 03 November 2001 1800 UTC.

Figure 4. 12-h forecast differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases
for 03 November 2001 1800 UTC.